Summary: Conceptual and material bases of system methodology of decision-making. System analysis of decision making in management 1 basic concepts of the theory of managerial decision making

When studying the decision-making process, it is necessary to take into account two nuances. Firstly, making decisions is generally not as difficult as it seems, but making the right decision is really difficult. Secondly, decision-making is a psychological process, but, as you know, human behavior is not always amenable to logic - sometimes it is controlled by feelings. For this reason, decisions can be either spontaneous and illogical, or logical and deliberate.

Below we will talk about the rational approach to decision making in detail, but you need to understand that a person is often influenced by all sorts of psychological factors, such as personal values, experiences or attitudes. So we start by looking at the impact of psychological and behavioral factors on decision making. Thus, the following discussion will focus on decisions of an intuitive, judgmental and rational nature.

Intuitive Solutions

Intuitive decisions can be described as a choice made on the basis of feelings about its correctness. The person making the decision does not analyze all the pros and cons, and often does not even assess the situation in detail. He just chooses. Interestingly, intuitive judgments are common. Moreover, many people depend on their intuition, tend to trust it in every possible way, tk. it helps to find the right solutions and effective ways out of difficult situations.

Despite this, when it comes to serious decisions, where there are many options to choose from, a person comes face to face with such a phenomenon as chance. And if you look at the issue of choice from a position, the chances of making the right decision are very low. Hence the conclusion: you need to listen to intuition and even follow it, but right choice is possible only when all the pluses and minuses of the situation are carefully analyzed.

Judgment Based Decisions

Decisions made on the basis of judgments may seem intuitive at first glance. The reason for this is the non-obviousness of logic. But in reality, such decisions are the product of knowledge and accumulated experience. People use knowledge of what happened in similar cases in the past to find alternative choices in the present and predict their outcomes in the future. Taking common sense as a basis, a person makes a decision that was successful earlier. Judgment is the basis of the decision, and this is useful, because many life situations often repeat themselves. So what worked then can still work now.

Considering that a decision based on judgment is made in the mind of a person, it will always be distinguished by speed and a low “price”. However, common sense in its purest form is a very rare phenomenon. everyone has their own needs, tasks, beliefs, etc. So judgment alone is not enough to make decisions in unique and complex situations where problems only seem obvious.

If the situation is new and the person has no experience yet, he cannot justify his choice logically. Judgment here can be bad, because. There are a lot of factors that need to be taken into account, and the mind is not able to process them all at once due to its limited capabilities. Because judgment is based on experience, focusing too much on the latter can bias decisions toward the side familiar to the person through past actions. In such a situation, it is very easy not to notice good alternatives. But more importantly, a person who relies too much on judgment and experience may consciously or unconsciously avoid the new. And this, in turn, can cause big problems in the future, because the relevance of almost any information decreases over time.

Adapting to a new and even more complex is never too easy, because there is always the possibility of making the wrong decision. But in many situations, a person may well improve his chances of making the right choice - if only he tries to make a decision rationally.

Rational Decisions

Rational decisions differ in that they do not depend on past experience, but are justified through a process of objective analysis. It consists of several stages:

• Problem Diagnosis
• Identification of alternatives
• Evaluation of alternatives
• Final Choice
• Solution Implementation

We will analyze each of the stages so that it is clearer what and how to do.

Problem Diagnosis

We discussed this topic in detail in the last lesson, so here we will only give the most general information. Diagnosing a problem is the first step in solving any problem. But there are two ways to go in the diagnostic process.

In the first problem is the situation when it was not possible to achieve goals. What man expected to happen does not happen. In the second case, the problem is an opportunity. A person realizes it when he understands that something can be done to improve a particular situation.

It is difficult to define the problem completely, because it is influenced by several factors. As experience shows, the successful definition of a problem is already 50% of its solution. Therefore, it is customary to pay great attention and a lot of time to diagnosing problem situations in the business sphere. This process, in a sense, can be called independent, because. It is itself subdivided into a number of its stages:

• Diagnosis (identifying and accepting that there is a problem)
• Understanding (need to understand the essence of the problem)
• Identification of causes (analysis of external and internal information)
• Data filtering (discarding everything that is not relevant to get relevant information)

With regard to relevant information, it should be noted that this is information that relates to the current problem, the people involved in it, the goals of its resolution and the period during which they need to be achieved. With these data, you can proceed to the second stage of making a rational decision.

Formulation of criteria and restrictions

When diagnosing a problem in order to make a decision, a person must understand what exactly he can do with it, i.e. how to solve. Decisions are often unrealistic as resources for implementation may be limited, especially if we are talking about one person. Also, the problem may be due to external causes, which cannot be influenced.

At this stage, it is necessary to impartially determine the constraints in which alternatives will be sought. This allows you to save a lot of time and find a feasible solution. Limitations always depend on the specific situation and the persons involved.

In addition to boundaries, it is important to establish criteria for evaluating alternatives. These are the so-called recommendations for evaluating the decision being made. They include everything that can help cut off unrealistic options and stay within the above boundaries.

Definition of alternatives

At the third stage, it is necessary to draw up and formulate a set of alternatives that can solve the problem. It is recommended to record all options for action that can positively affect the result. But given that people rarely have the knowledge and resources to evaluate all alternatives, the most serious options should be identified.

Alternatives are considered until one is found that satisfies all needs. To do this, consider a wide range of options. Difficult problems need to be analyzed as deeply as possible in order to be able to develop several solutions at once.

Evaluation of alternatives

Before choosing the final solution to the problem, it is necessary to evaluate the whole variety of options, considering the pros and cons of each and predicting possible consequences. Almost always, all options are associated with negative aspects, but at the same time, in most situations, a compromise can be found.

In order to compare solutions, it is necessary to have standards for evaluating effectiveness (which we discussed earlier). You need to focus on both quantitative and qualitative parameters. Sometimes, of course, it is not possible to fully compare the options, but in any case, the decision must take on a specific form, and it is better that it also reflects the purpose for which the decision is made.

When scoring alternatives, it is effective to use a scoring system to understand which choice is better. It is also desirable to take into account and predict the development of events. The more points and the higher the probability of implementation of some option, the more it indicates the correctness of the choice.

Final Choice

If all the previous stages have been successfully completed, it will be quite simple to make a choice - it remains only to decide on the most suitable option. But if many factors matter, and if the data and analysis are purely subjective, it may be that none of the options will work. If this happens, experience and judgment are required. They will make it possible to form a more objective picture of the current situation and advance in its resolution.

It is also important to say that a person's behavior when making a decision should not be maximizing, but satisfying. Those. it is required to choose the most obvious and acceptable solution, even if it is not the best one, than to look for an ephemeral ideal option, which may not exist at all.

Solution Implementation

It’s not enough just to decide on a course of action. It is much more important to implement a solution in order to solve a problem or gain a benefit. The most successful decisions are those that are approved by all the parties involved in resolving the issue. If there are several parties and there are disagreements, you should not waste time convincing people of your position and insisting on its correctness. It is much better to try to find a compromise that satisfies everyone and everyone.

As a result of all the above actions, you need to get feedback. To do this, you should measure and evaluate the consequences of your choice or compare the results with the predicted ones. Under feedback you need to understand the flow of information about what happened before the decision was made and what happened after.

At this point, the topic of making rational decisions can be considered closed. However, the question of decision-making methods is still open, because we did not talk about approaches to this process. They should not be correlated with the classification already considered, because. they view the phenomenon in a different way.

Decision-making approaches

There are four pairs of decision-making approaches in total:

• Centralized and decentralized
• Group and individual
• Participation and non-participation
• Democratic and deliberative

Let's see what their features are.

Centralized and decentralized approaches

The centralized approach is based on the fact that the maximum number of decisions is made by some higher authority, for example, the board of directors in the company. And in decentralized decision-making responsibility extends to all levels, including the lowest. The amount and nature of decentralization in each specific case are determined separately.

Group and individual approaches

In a group decision-making approach, several parties are involved in working together on a problem. An individual approach allows only a single choice. The first option is more expedient, because. collective decision is easier to implement. But the second option is more preferable if there is a time constraint or the other party involved cannot take part in the decision physically.

Participation and non-participation approaches

In a participatory approach, you need to get the opinion of all parties on the decision being made. If the choice is made taking into account the opinions of stakeholders, the likelihood of its success increases. This approach should not be confused with the group approach, because in it the decision is made collectively, and in the participatory approach there is only a survey - the final decision is made by the responsible person. When it comes to the non-participatory approach, only one person collects information and analyzes alternatives, and then makes a choice.

Democratic and deliberative approaches

The democratic approach involves making decisions in the direction of the majority. It is not very effective for organizations because often divides people into two camps - "winners" and "losers", which can lead to conflict situations and failures in management and operation. The deliberative approach involves all parties in decision-making, which allows finding a compromise that suits everyone.

The deliberative approach usually serves as a form of group approach, but the focus is on getting the points of view of as many stakeholders as possible (through meetings, interviews, meetings, etc.) and then making a choice.

Interestingly, in the practice of applying the group approach, the following was noticed:

• Groupthink is activated, in which the majority exerts social pressure on the minority, as a result of which individual people agree that it is beneficial to the masses, even if their interests are not taken into account in any way.
• The group approach serves as a ground for the clash of personal opinions of the participants to a much greater extent than all other approaches.

At the same time, it should be taken into account that the use of a group approach has a number of serious advantages:

• The group solves problems more effectively by having a broader view of the problem and its causes.
• The group has a much wider perspective, and therefore is able to find the best solution
• Group enthusiasm (especially encouraged) is much stronger than individual
• The group is less prone to and distrustful of new solutions

Based on all of the above, we can conclude that if the problem being solved concerns several parties, it is most effective to make decisions collectively and taking into account the opinions of everyone. If the problem concerns one person, he can make decisions himself, but at the same time he is free to use any other approaches and means of finding solutions.

Everything that we have managed to talk about is more advisory in nature than it is a system. However, this information is universal - it will help you make decisions. effective solutions in all simple and complex situations. But you should always look at the characteristics of problem situations, the interests of the parties involved and other factors that affect decision making. It is these factors that will be discussed next.

Factors influencing decision making

In fact, the volume of the topic of factors influencing the decision-making process is very large, so we will cover only the most important, in our opinion, subtleties that most directly affect the choice and its effectiveness.

First of all, these are personal factors. These include , states and processes. Next come the situational factors: external and internal. External environment- these are economic and political conditions, legal norms, socio-cultural factors and technologies, natural and geographical factors. The business sphere here is also complemented by consumers, suppliers, competitors, infrastructure - all this matters. The internal environment is the goals and structure of the organization, corporate culture, organizational processes and available resources. Speaking about the decision-making environment, it is equally important to mention risks, certainty and uncertainty, time and changes in the environment itself.

There are also uncertain factors (they differ in the source of uncertainty (environmental uncertainty or personal uncertainty), nature (random or non-random)), informational and behavioral factors, as well as negative consequences and interconnectedness of solutions.

As you can see for yourself, the topic of factors influencing decision-making is not only very interesting, but also broad. To better understand it, as well as how people make decisions in general, one can (highly recommended for those who want to become an expert in this field) pay attention to the theory of decision making. She is able to answer many questions.

Decision Theory: Fundamentals

Decision theory is a special area of ​​research, operating in mathematical, statistical, economic, psychological and managerial terms, to study the patterns of people's choice of ways to make decisions and solve problems and ways to achieve their goals.

There is a normative theory describing the rational choice process and a descriptive theory describing its practical aspects. From a rational position, decision making consists of several stages:

• Problem Analysis
• Problem identification and task definition
• Collection of information
• Definition of alternatives
• Determination of criteria for evaluating alternatives
• Definition of indicators to monitor the implementation of decisions
• Evaluation of alternatives
• Choosing the best alternative
• Create an action plan
• Implementation of the action plan
• Monitoring the implementation of the action plan
• Evaluation of results

You can go through these stages, depending on the specifics of the situation, in parallel, simultaneously or with a return to the passed stages. The passage of all stages must be rationally justified. Decision theory also says that you need to be able to statistically predict the development of events. But for this it is necessary to have a sample of future data. The impossibility of this indicates the need to use statistics from past experience.

The core of decision-making theory is a separate area - decision-making under uncertainty, i.e. in situations where the outcome of a choice is unknown. Uncertainty can be stochastic (when there is data on the distribution of probability over a group of outcomes), behavioral (when there is data on the impact on the outcome of the behavior of the persons involved), natural (when there is data from probable outcomes and there is no information about the relationship between decisions and outcomes) and a priori ( when there is no data even about possible outcomes).

What we call the expected value today was once called the expected value. Its essence is that given different behaviors, each of which can lead to several possible outcomes, a rational approach should identify all possible outcomes, establish their value and probability, and indicate, based on their total expected value. This reduces the negative impact on the decision of the effect of uncertainty.

Subsequently, the theory of subjective probability appeared, significantly expanding the theory of expected value, and promoting the theory of real human behavioral decision making under risks (we also recommend reading Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory).

As for the difference between risk and uncertainty, situations with an unknown outcome are described either by risk or by uncertainty. Choosing under risk means that the probable outcomes are known, but some of them are more favorable, and some are less. And choice under uncertainty is based on an unknown set of outcomes. Experienced business people always strive to follow the rule, i.e. bring uncertainty to risk. This can be achieved through the collection additional information about the problem and its application.

According to decision theory, erroneous decisions are divided into errors of the first and second row. This is due to the fact that the results of wrong choices are fundamentally different in terms of the fact that an unrealized favorable outcome affects the problem much less than a realized unfavorable one. But the division into errors of the first and second order is possible only when all risks are taken into account and analyzed.

If we touch on the theory of probability, which is most directly related to the theory of decision making, we can say that it is rather problematic to replace the use of probability with alternatives. Some experts argue that probability is only one of many alternatives. Others say that the rejection of the theory of probability may give rise to theoretical difficulties, and so on.

It is easy to see that decision theory is fraught with a huge number of useful information, the study of which will allow you to delve deeper into behavioral psychology. In general, it determines the norms of behavior for the person making the decision. It establishes signs to follow in order to avoid contradictions with its own preferences, judgments and principles.

But theory does not dictate human behavior at all. It only helps him, provides him with a methodology that allows him to make decisions that include elements of subjectivism. Interestingly, as the complexity of problems grows, the ability of a person to informally process information based on their own judgments weakens. This is where decision theory comes into its own, offering advantages over any other analytical approach to problem solving. It includes many subjective aspects of problems, which is especially important when making decisions in individually.

We repeat that we do not insist on mastering the theory of decision making. To a greater extent, this is necessary for specialists, for example, managers, psychologists, sociologists and professionals from other fields of science. However, studying this theory, even for the sake of interest, can raise the effectiveness of your decisions to a qualitatively new level. However, you probably noticed that the process of making rational decisions, which we described in the first block, is based on the foundations of decision theory. Therefore, one way or another, you will encounter it constantly.

So, we have already managed to study two important issues- we talked about problems, their types and methods of working with them and figured out how people make decisions, at the same time getting acquainted with the theory of decision making. But solutions, as one should assume, can be more or less effective. Our task is to learn how to find and develop effective solutions, and there are many practical methods for this.

In the third lesson, we will talk about methods for finding new ideas and solutions: brainstorming, creative collaboration techniques, the 635 method, the conference of ideas, the Discussion-66 method, synectics and synectic conference, the Delphi method, idea engineering and others. You will have at your disposal a fairly solid arsenal of techniques to increase personal effectiveness in life, training and work.

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Topic 13

Organization of the development of solutions by the manager based on a systematic analysis of the current situation

1. Basic concepts and definitions of decision theory…………… 2

2. Factors that determine the effectiveness of decisions ……………..………… 9

3. Concepts, principles and paradigms for developing solutions …..………….. 16

4. Model of the problem situation …………………………………………….. 25

Literature …………………………………………………………………….. 33

St. Petersburg - 2012

Basic concepts and definitions of decision theory

Further, we will use the following basic concepts: control, decision maker, problem or task (controls), solution, goal (controls, activities), operation (cybernetic), alternative, active resources, result, model, conditions (decision development).

Please note that these basic concepts should be taken as terms only, and not as strict definitions. There are at least two reasons for this.

First, there are simply no rigorous definitions for some categories of decision theory (DMT). Secondly, any definition is always rather stagnant, and TPR is a dynamic, rapidly developing science that is constantly revising its conceptual and methodological apparatus. Therefore, there is no need to learn by heart those words by means of which we will interpret the meaning of the basic concepts, however, one must be deeply imbued with the thoughts and images that stand behind these words, and be able to interpret them.

Control. As already noted, the solution to the problem facing the decision maker is possible only by directing and using active resources to perform specific tasks or work. Nothing gets done on its own. People participating in the operation need to be told where, when, what and with what help, what are the requirements for the quality of the tasks or work performed, what are the allowable variations from the planned tasks and under what force majeure circumstances emergency measures should be taken, what are these measures, etc. All this is united by one concept - management. To manage is to direct someone or something towards an intended goal in order to achieve a desired result.

The main requirement for the quality of management is its continuity. The notion that everything will happen by itself is a mistaken idea - this is a dangerous delusion! It is akin to the notion that when driving a car, you can leave the steering wheel for a long time. Any business, like a car, without control can only move in one direction - down a slope. In addition to continuity, there are a number of other requirements for management, for example, the requirement for a certain freedom (“backlash”) in the actions of performers, the requirements for stability and flexibility (meaning that, if necessary, adjustments to a previously planned plan can be made with minimal losses), optimality, and some others. .

Solution. Usually the same problem can be solved in different ways. However, the quality of the outcome of the operation, that is, the value of its results, depends not only on the quality of active resources and the conditions for their use, but also on the quality of the way these resources are used under these conditions. In this regard, in this course, the word "solution" will most often be interpreted as the best way solution of the problem facing the decision maker, as the most preferable way to achieve the goal set by the decision maker. Consequently, the meaning of the word "solution" in our case will be somewhat different from the meaning that is attributed to it, for example, in mathematics, when they talk about solving a mathematical problem.

In mathematics, the correct solution of a correctly posed problem is always the same, regardless of how and under what conditions this problem is solved. The mathematical solution is always objective. In contrast, the solution of the problem is subjective, since different decision makers can choose different ways of solving the problem that they like. And besides, the conditions for solving the problem leave a significant imprint on the decision maker's choice: the same decision maker in different conditions may prefer, in the general case, an unequal way to solve the problem.

Target. A formalized description of the desired state, the achievement of which is identified in the mind of the decision maker with the solution of a problem or task. The goal is described in terms of the desired result.

Alternative. This is a conventional name for some of the possible (acceptable in accordance with the laws of nature and the preferences of the decision maker) ways to achieve the goal. Each individual alternative differs from other ways of solving the problem by the sequence and methods of using active resources, that is, by a specific set of instructions to whom, what, where, with what help and by what time. Active resources are all that can be used by the decision maker to solve the problem. We will always consider people, time, finances (money) and expendable materials available to the decision maker.

Result. Under the result, we mean a special form of describing the most important characteristics of the outcome of the operation for the decision maker. In the study of the operation, the degree of preference (or, conversely, not preference) of its results is presented in the most suitable scale for this: numerical, quantitative or qualitative. Let, for example, consider "victory" and "defeat" as the outcomes of a financial transaction. In such a case, it will be possible to measure the results of the transaction, for example, or in the quantities of realized profits, shares acquired and other valuable papers(quantitative scale), or in relation to the intensity of the manifestation of the outcome, for example, “great victory”, “minor defeat”, “significant defeat” (qualitative scale), or in relation to the order of outcomes - first victory, second victory, third victory (numerical scale ). The type of scale is chosen depending on the purpose of measuring the results; this will be discussed in more detail later.

Model. The real world is complex and diverse. It takes a lot of creative effort and time to study or cognize it. At the same time, in order to develop solutions, it is often enough for a decision maker to know not everything in the object or phenomenon being studied, but only the essential properties, features, patterns that are important for the solution. Problems. In order to save active resources, above all, time, simulation was invented. This is a special approach to the study of reality, when the decision maker discards excessively detailed details of the object or phenomenon being studied, leaving only its most significant features. It is only necessary to demand and make sure that such a simplification is not indiscriminate. It is important that, based on the results and study of the fragments of appearance, properties and relationships remaining after simplification, it would be possible to draw the right conclusions for decision-making. Only in this case the modeling will be really useful. As a result, all real objects and phenomena essential for the development of solutions are replaced by compact, expressive and convenient for description, storage and other use of simplified images. Such simplified images are called models. Thus, the model retains all the important things that must be taken into account when developing solutions, however, the form of representation of the model is chosen such that the process of developing a solution would be efficient. It should be borne in mind that modeling is carried out for different purposes. Here is a list of the most common modeling targets:

§ study some element of reality - didactic and research models;

§ work out some element of practical actions - training and game models;

§ to optimize any process, form or content of something - optimization models;

§ delegate authority to perform certain actions by other persons - preference models.

Each modeling goal can be associated with the most preferred form of building and presenting the model. For example, a model can be formed descriptively, that is, in words.

Such models are called verbal. The elements of reality and the connections between them can also be represented using symbols or signs. These are semiotic models. In addition, since childhood, everyone is familiar with physical copies of objects and objects - toys. And everyone in childhood played games: war, school, some profession, that is, they modeled behavior in reality. Each of us once drew something, expressing our thoughts about what we saw or heard. These graphic images are drawings, diagrams, maps of the area, etc. - also models, that is - simplified images of reality.

Each of these models has its own, well-defined set of properties. Verbal models have a high information capacity (remember at least the greatest work of Leo Tolstoy "War and Peace"), but they are difficult to use to transform information or solve computational and analytical problems. Semiotic models, depending on the specific form of using certain signs and symbols - diagrams, graphs, logic diagrams, mathematical equations and inequalities - are good, for example, for information and optimization problems, for representing them by means of computer technology. Game models (political, economic, social and business games) occupy a special place. With the help of game models, it is convenient to study the mechanisms of behavioral uncertainty. When developing management decisions in economics, verbal and graphic forms of models are most often used. Mathematical and game models are used to increase the validity and evidence of decisions.

On the basis of a system analysis of the order of work of the head of an enterprise (firm) in the development of solutions, a graphical model of the management process has been developed. This model is shown in Figure 1.1.

Terms solution development. Each problem is always associated with a specific situation, a situation and a well-defined set of conditions. The problem is always solved within the existing state of affairs. Analyzing one or another way to achieve the goal, the decision maker must clearly understand the patterns that link the course and outcome of the operation with the decisions made. The totality of ideas about these regularities, of course, is perceived by decision makers in a simplified, model form. Some of the regularities can be fixed in a strictly formal form. For example, Newton's laws in mechanics describe in mathematical form the relationships in the chain "mass-force-acceleration".

Fig.1.1. Graphical model of the control process

In TPR, a model of regularities in a chain "decision-outcome" called the "mechanism of the situation." At the same time, it is believed that the model simplification of links in the specified chain does not in any way mean their rejection.

It means that of the whole variety of connections and regularities, only those that are of predominant importance, that is, those that make the most significant contribution to the formation of the result, are included in the model. For example, when evaluating time t fall of a body in the Earth's atmosphere from a height h it is necessary to take into account, strictly speaking, the influence of both the weight and the shape of the falling body, and atmospheric perturbations (wind), however, in a significant range of heights h we can assume that only the height as the leading factor determines the "mechanism of the situation." In this case, the relationship between h And t will be simplified unambiguous, namely: h = 0.5gt2.

In TPR, only two types of model relationships are considered in the “mechanism of the situation”: unambiguous and ambiguous.

Unambiguous connections give rise to a stable and well-defined relationship between the implemented solution and the outcome of its implementation. And as soon as the course of action is given, the outcome and the results associated with it immediately become quite definite (as in our example with the estimate of the time of falling from a given height). Such “mechanisms of the situation”, in which the expected outcome almost always occurs, and the probability of other (unexpected for the decision maker) outcomes is negligibly small, we will call non-risk situations, deterministic mechanisms of the situation or certainty conditions.

Such links between the method and the outcome of the operation (risk situations, or uncertainty conditions), within which, with repeated reproduction of the same alternative, different outcomes are possible. At the same time, the degree of possibility of the appearance of certain outcomes and results is quite commensurable (that is, one cannot consider some outcomes to be extremely unlikely compared to others).

The most expressive model of the "mechanism of the situation" with a multi-valued relationship between the alternative and the outcome is random mechanism occurrence of insured events. Even if several identical objects are insured by the same insurer, two outcomes are possible: “the occurrence of an insured event” or “non-occurrence of an insured event”. And if the number of insurance objects is connected with the occurrence of an insured event, then the result is several possible values ​​​​of the paid insurance amount of insurance objects. This is a typical mechanism of stochastic (random) uncertainty, and interaction with competitors is behavioral.

But there are more difficult situations. For example, there may be no data on the probabilities of certain outcomes, although it is known that random factors are the main ones in the operation. Or it may turn out that there is no data on possible alternatives for the behavior of other subjects involved in the decision maker operation, although it is known that these persons will take some actions to achieve the goals. Finally, the nature of the phenomena and events occurring in the operation may simply be unclear or unknown. The "mechanisms" of all such situations will be referred to the class of naturally uncertain. The list of concepts used in the TPR is not limited to this presentation. As the material is presented in the appropriate places, important concepts will be introduced there, such as a problem situation, the effectiveness of a solution, an expert, a criterion, preferences, the best solution, etc.

A well-formulated problem is a problem half solved.

Charles Kettering

Basic concepts of decision theory

Each person in life makes decisions on various issues that require the choice of the best option. For example, a student must decide what profession to choose in the future. Then the problem arises, which university to choose for training. We are constantly solving issues that require the analysis of information and the choice of the best existing options (alternatives). Choice one of the options - the best, but in our opinion, is the basis for making a decision. The choice of a solution is based on the formulated criteria, which allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of achieving the goal. Criteria represent a system of requirements or parameters that the selected solution must satisfy. Such a decision is called optimal(best) under existing conditions to achieve the goal. Therefore, in order to make the best decision, it is necessary to evaluate each option according to the selected criterion, i.e. evaluate all the pros and cons, and then determine the final solution.

Solution - the end result of the process of choosing one of the many existing alternatives, which allows you to solve a problem (task). Decision making is an important management procedure.

The idea of ​​creating a decision theory arose in the 18th century. with the great French mathematician Joseph Louis Lagrange(1736-1813), who developed principle of least action in the book "Analytical Mechanics". At present, the search for scientific sound ways the choice of the best solution to achieve a certain goal, taking into account limited resources, began to be carried out on the basis of analytical and mathematical operations. In the process of gradual integration of theoretical knowledge and practical experience at the interdisciplinary level, to substantiate and search for optimal solutions in the management of complex psychological, socio-economic, political, technical and other systems, a decision theory as a special field of study, including the methods of mathematics, statistics, economics, management and psychology in order to study the patterns of people's choice of ways to solve problems, as well as ways to achieve the desired result.

In complex and large systems (social, economic, political, technical, environmental, etc.), which are characterized by uncertainty, the decision-making process by trial and error is not only inefficient, but sometimes even harmful. Further development of the scientific foundations of decision-making was carried out on the basis of the main provisions of the theory of systems, control theory and the theory of operations research. Methods of system analysis are of decisive importance for the development of decision-making methodology. Decision theory (DMT) is developed on the basis of systems approach. In constantly changing conditions, decision-making is a procedure that requires a preliminary system analysis of the influence of various factors to create alternatives, this procedure also allows you to obtain predictive estimates of the results of such decisions.

Note!

The basis of decision theory (DMT) is system analysis, considering the control object as a complex system with diverse intrasystem links between its elements and external links to other systems, and cybernetics, which studies the patterns of management based on information and operations research.

Object of study in decision theory is problem situation.

Subject of research act general patterns developing solutions for problem situations, as well as the patterns inherent in the process modeling problematic situation.

The main purpose of this theory is the development of scientifically based recommendations regarding the organization and technologies for constructing procedures for preparing and making decisions in difficult situations.

Decision making theories are based on a number of important concepts that characterize this area of ​​scientific knowledge: problem; goal; decision maker; alternative; criteria for evaluation; optimal solution.

The basic concept is face, decision maker; this is the specialist or leader (manager) who is responsible for the decision. The draft decision, as a rule, is prepared by a group of specialists (or the LG1R apparatus), but the responsibility for its effectiveness lies entirely with the LIR. Therefore, the procedure for preparing a decision (or regulation) plays an important role in the decision-making process.

Regulations- a certain order of procedures for collecting information, analyzing it, putting forward alternatives and evaluating them.

Target is the second important concept of decision theory. Every decision should be directed towards achieving a goal or goals. The formulation of the goal plays a decisive role both in the management system and in the decision-making process. The goal should not contain contradictions. Any goal can be achieved by different means (resources).

Resources- the third important concept of decision theory. Resources should include not only material, financial, organizational, informational, etc., but also those methods by which decisions are made. The search for resources with the help of which goals can be achieved determines to a large extent the effectiveness of the decision being made and its quality. The quality of decisions depends largely on personal and professional characteristics leader. Such characteristics include competence in the field of socio-economic, industrial, financial and managerial activities.

Note!

Most often, business leaders associate resources only with finances, but certain goals can be achieved by other means. Practice shows that it is possible to achieve the goal at the expense of organizational and intellectual resources. For example, by modernizing the organizational and managerial structure - carrying out reengineering, reducing the cost of the administrative apparatus or activating the intellectual potential of employees - introducing innovations.

From the point of view of the system approach and organization theory, the result of a decision (action) can cause a positive, negative or neutral reaction in the elements (subsystems) of an organized system. Therefore, each decision must be balanced, taking into account specific conditions and possible consequences. It should be noted that almost every decision of the decision maker is subjective, and checking it for objectivity requires additional analytical procedures. This is especially true for solving problems that arise in the process of managing socio-economic objects under conditions of uncertainty.

The beginning of scientific research on this topic was laid Daniel Kahneman And Amos Tversky, who in 1979 published an article "Prospect Theory: Analysis of Decision Making under Risk" and laid the foundations for the so-called behavioral economics (behavioral economics). In this paper, scientists presented the results of psychological studies of managers, which showed that a person cannot rationally and adequately assess the size of the expected benefits (or losses) from decisions made under risk, as well as present quantitative values ​​of the level of probability of random events.

Managers usually make mistakes in risk assessments. They tend to either underestimate the likelihood of events that are most likely to occur, or overestimate much less likely events. The results of the study showed that even mathematicians who have knowledge in the field of probability theory in real life situations do not use this knowledge to assess risky events, and when making decisions, they most often rely on stereotypes, prejudices and emotions.

It was these results of psychological research that allowed D. Kahneman and A. Tversky to propose a new theory of decision making based not on probability theory, but on psychological laws of human behavior under risk. They called this theory perspective theory (prospect theory). According to this theory a common person in conditions of risk is not able to correctly assess future benefits or losses in absolute terms. He evaluates them only by comparing them with some generally accepted standard and seeking to avoid worsening his position, i.e. considering safety.

The very attitude to the decision-making process in management as a field of economic science has changed significantly. The classics of economic science (A. Smith, D. Ricardo) proposed a model of "economic man" with a strongly pronounced "economic behavior", a rational approach and competence in own affairs. Long time these ideas were "mainstream" in economics (a fundamental and prevailing concept). Criticism of this approach began only in the works J. S. Mill. Much later, researchers in this direction were awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics: J. Akerlof And J. Stiglitz (2001), D. Kahneman And W. Smith(2002). The studies of these scientists, including laboratory studies, convincingly confirmed that “most of the knowledge we use and the ability to make decisions are unconscious in nature” (W. Smith.

Taking into account the whole variety of information when solving complex problems is impossible without modern means decision support. These include a decision support system (DSS), which includes computer software, mathematical tools and system analysis tools.

In the decision-making process in today's dynamic socio-economic conditions of multi-level organization systems, it is necessary to take into account the presence of many:

• goals;
• possible means and methods to achieve the goals;
• factors that create different conditions (risks) in which actions are carried out (including conditions of uncertainty);
• criteria (requirements) for evaluating decisions aimed at achieving goals;
• solution options.

Note!

The concept of " risk» associated with the concept "uncertainty", those. with a large number of factors that must be taken into account when making decisions. In modern economic literature, some authors separate these two concepts, while others tend to believe that they are identical.

Word "risk"- Spanish-Portuguese origin, means danger, underwater rock. The concept of " uncertainty» in the economy is associated with the irremovable effects of the market environment on business, due to a large number of factors that are very difficult to assess. The risk arises when it is necessary to make a decision in the face of uncertainty or insufficient information. That is why the decision-making process, including its preparation, requires the use of all system analysis tools in substantiating and choosing an alternative, taking into account the results of a comprehensive analysis of a large amount of information.

Note!

The decision-making process is based on the "removal of uncertainty" (i.e., reducing the amount of information) on the problem that arises. Therefore, decision-making in the management process is always associated with information processes. Sufficient and objective information support of the decision-making process makes it possible to achieve high efficiency of the management process.

One example of decision-making under risk conditions is the development of innovative entrepreneurship in Russia, which is a risky business, as it is associated with constantly changing

external and internal investment conditions. Therefore, most entrepreneurs innovative activity based on self-financing. This is mainly due to the variety external factors entrepreneurial activity that do not contribute to its innovative development, as well as the complication of the international financial situation (international sanctions). Investing in Russian high technologies should take into account the traditional features of the formation of innovative entrepreneurship and the specifics of legal and economic conditions Russian reality. Therefore, each organization makes its own decisions about innovative development.

Theory is a philosophical category for designating the development of a system of knowledge that reliably and adequately reflects the essence and patterns of phenomena certain area objective reality, which is a guide for practical activities. By analogy with this definition, decision theory should be understood as a system of knowledge that reflects the essence of the concepts of "regularity" and "decision". Taking into account the laws, decisions are developed, adopted and implemented. The main features of the theory of decision making are objective truth, logical integrity, formal consistency, the ability to develop, relative independence, active influence on practice.

Objective in theory is the verification by practice of the content of its laws and principles, and subjective is the form of expression of the corresponding theoretical provisions. A necessary condition for the formation of decision-making theory as a component of management theory is the precise definition of its subject, boundaries and directions of study, forms and methods of research.

The essence of decision-making as a process is understood as an internal, relatively stable basis of a managerial decision that determines its meaning, role and place in the functioning and development of the organization. The essence of decision-making is usually manifested through a variety of external relations and actions that characterize one of the parties to a managerial decision. Based on this, it is possible to determine the subject of study of the theory of decision making.

The essence of the development of decision-making lies in the activities of the decision maker to perform the fundamental function of the leader in the management process. The main goal of a management decision is to provide a coordinating (regulatory) impact on the management system that implements the solution of management tasks by personnel to achieve the goals of the organization.

Achieving these goals involves solving problems and tasks that make up the content and sequence of actions of decision makers in the performance of their immediate duties. The main tasks are: creation information base to make timely decisions; definition of restrictions and decision criteria; organization of management personnel activities. Decision making is a creative, responsible task of management. It consists in, in accordance with the current situation, to determine the plan for subsequent actions of subordinates in a specific area of ​​​​management (production of goods or provision of services), tasks structural divisions in the system of activities, the order of their interaction, provision and management. Decisions are made by the head (line manager) and bears personal responsibility for them. The management personnel of a particular organization is involved in the preparation of data for decision making. Responsibility for a group decision rests with those who made it, according to their position.

For timely decision-making, it is necessary to have a management system that ensures the implementation of complex systemic activities of decision makers, organize the work of management personnel on a scientific basis, using effective methods and automated control systems. From the management personnel involved in decision-making, both professional and personal qualities are required. At the same time, the quality decisions taken largely depends on the coherence of the team, its inherent organizational culture, the relationship between managers and performers, the use of decision support systems.

On these issues, decision-making theory should develop scientifically based practical recommendations based on objective laws and achievements of related sciences and theories, primarily social, psychological and legal ones. At the same time, the main thing is not just to know the laws, but to use the mechanism of their manifestation wisely.

Therefore, the subject of study of decision-making theory is the laws (patterns) of the activities of decision-makers, its organizational forms, technologies and methods, principles of management and organization of labor, the essence and content of decisions.

The object of decision theory is system activity managers and management personnel in the process of developing, making and implementing decisions.

At present, the development of decision theory is significantly influenced by methodology, in particular the methodology of thinking, management theory, cybernetics, psychology, sociology and political science. For the further development of this theory, the natural sciences - biology, psychophysiology - are essential. The most important role belongs to mathematics and its methods quantitative assessments options when making a decision, predicting the development of situations to develop the most rational solution.

The subject of decision theory is explored from various angles, which make up separate but interrelated aspects. The main ones are methodological, organizational, economic, technological, socio-psychological and legal.

Methodological aspects of decision making reflect the unity and integrity of scientific knowledge for decision theory.

Organizational aspects reflect the state and prospects for the development of the organizational and functional structure of management bodies, the location and operation of decision makers (as management bodies) in the management system at various hierarchical levels. They also include the definition of ways to improve the organization of decision-making and methods for studying the problems that arise in this case.

Economic aspects show the effect of economic factors on the effectiveness of existing and developing decision-making systems, the impact of their economic efficiency on the economic training of management personnel, improvement organizational forms and decision - making methods on a new technical basis .

Technological aspects determine the level of used and developed decision-making technologies in management, the prospects for the development of automated and human-machine systems for their adoption.

Social psychological aspects illustrate various aspects of people's activities in the decision-making process. These include improving the structure of intra-collective relations, studying the behavior of an individual in a team and the relationship of its members in the decision-making process.

The main problems of decision-making psychology:

• – determination of the main psychological features of managerial decision-making processes;
• – analysis of managerial decisions from the point of view of the system of their empirical and phenomenological functional features, procedural organization;
• - functional and structural analysis of management activities in the decision-making process;
• - socio-psychological analysis of management teams;
• - study of the psychology of the leader, his relationship with the performers;
• - psychological aspects of the selection, placement and training of decision makers.

Legal aspects reflect the relationship between the various hierarchical levels of the management system and individual officials in the preparation of a decision. Legal regulations should form the basis of the organization of management activities.

Thus, decision theory is the sum of knowledge about the development, adoption and implementation of managerial decisions, patterns and principles, organizational forms, methods and technologies for the functioning of the decision-making system in an organization.

Decision theory, like any scientific theory, performs cognitive and predictive functions.

The cognitive function manifests itself in revealing the essence of decision-making processes, the laws and principles to which it is subject, the emergence and development of decision-making theory at various historical stages, in explaining the main properties and relationships of the subject of study, substantiating the technology and decision-making system.

The predictive function consists in determining trends in the further development of processes and decision-making systems, organizational forms and methods of activity of management personnel in the process of their adoption.

The main tasks of the theory of decision making:

• - study and generalization of the experience of decision-making in certain conditions, as well as in conditions of uncertainty and risk;
• - identification and study of objective patterns of decision-making processes; formation on their basis of the principles of organizing the activities of decision makers, organizational forms and methods, technologies for the development, adoption and implementation of decisions;
• – production practical advice on the work of line managers and their management apparatus when making decisions in a real situation, as well as the use of technical means and automated control systems;
• – development of methods for studying the problems of developing a decision-making system, principles and methods for assessing their effectiveness, as well as measures to improve the activities of decision-makers.

The problems of decision-making theory can be fundamentally solved only if the methodological foundations of a new concept of managing the life of society are developed.

Gulina O.M.

"Applied Methods of Decision Making"

Volume - 72 pages.

Circulation 50 copies.

Appointment - for students of the specialties of CT, ACS, Information systems, areas of ICT, as well as the specialty Management of the organization of all forms of education.

The methodology and problems of decision theory, the main types of uncertainties and general approaches and methods of decision making in these situations are considered. Examples of practical situations are given with detailed explanations and solutions. For self-control of students, the lecture course is supplemented with control questions on topics.

Introduction

The decision theory course is included in the training programs for specialists in the field of computer science, engineering and technology, as well as in the training programs for managers, emphasizing the important role of the ability to make optimal management decisions. This course consists of a whole class of disciplines focused on the use of information in decision-making (DM) in a variety of situations.

Decision-making processes underlie any purposeful activity:

without making decisions it is impossible to do in everyday life:

We choose a university, work, home, vacation spot, planning family budget etc.

without making decisions production development, firms, Research institutes, branches of economy,…

it is also impossible to do without political decisions– the distribution of state budget funds, the method of implementing the education reform, land reform, the methods of implementing tax policy, ...

The problem of choice is one of the central ones in economics. The buyer decides what to buy and at what price. The producer decides what to invest in, what goods to produce. The choice, as a rule, is carried out on the basis of the analysis of some indicator of efficiency. Appropriate calculation models are actively used in deterministic choice. However, the choice often has to be made under conditions of uncertainty of various nature. And for a comprehensive analysis, you need:

In each specific case, understand the internal nature of the existing uncertainty and its sources;

Understand how this uncertainty is taken into account by the chosen mathematical model;

Understand the essence of the method by which a solution is found for a given model in the presence of proper initial data, since the choice of method depends on the awareness of the decision maker (DM).

The choice must be justified, i.e. made on the basis of solving a certain optimization problem. The formulation of such a problem, depending on the situation, leads to various mathematical models.

Decision-making in the conditions of conflict and confrontation of the parties, decision-making in a team, strategic planning and forecasting, building plans to achieve the goal.. .

To learn how to make the right, optimal decisions, it is necessary to consider the general principles of their development and methods that allow you to make decisions that are optimal in a certain sense. First of all, this applies to decisions, the consequences of which can be quite significant. Hence, there is a need to develop methods that simplify the decision-making process (DPR) and give decisions greater reliability.

Decision theory studies the general schemes used by people when choosing the right solution from a variety of alternative possibilities.

In this regard, when starting to study a specific control problem, it is necessary first of all to find out

What types of uncertainty will have to be faced, and how this may affect the choice of the optimal solution;

Is it possible to adequately take into account the non-deterministic nature of the situation under study within the framework of the adopted model?

The participation of people in decision-making requires justification of the position in the implementation of the choice. Subjectivism in decision making problems is associated with the choice of model, analysis of situations, assignment of preferences, etc.

One of the main problems that arise when analyzing a situation and making a decision is the formalized presentation of information, i.e. development of a mathematical model of the situation under consideration. Depending on what kind of information is available, different formal procedures are used. For example, if information is present in the form of expert judgments, then heuristic methods are used. If conflict situations are considered, then game theory models are used.

The book includes material from a course of lectures on the theory of decision making, read by the author at the Obninsk State Technical University of Atomic Energy.

Chapter 1 presents the main provisions and terminology of decision theory. Any activity is associated with risk. Decision-making under risk, search for additional information, elements of the theory of statistical decisions are described in Chapter 2. Almost any PR problem is multicriteria. Chapter 3 discusses both the setting of multicriteria tasks and ways to overcome the uncertainty of goals for various initial data and the degree of awareness of the decision maker.

At the end of each topic is a list of key concepts that define the content of the topic, as well as self-test questions.

It remains to add that, since decision-making processes underlie any purposeful activity, knowledge of the elements of decision theory will be useful to any educated person.

Decision making needs to be learned .

1 The main provisions of the theory of decision making

1.1 Features of decision-making problems

Decision-making (PR) is far from always taking place in conditions of complete certainty. This is more the exception than the rule.

Uncertainty associated with the random influence of external factors, with the indeterminacy of the proper properties of a system or situation, with the incompleteness of the constructed mathematical model.

Decisions have to be made in conditions of different information. Therefore, it is necessary to strive to use all available information and, after weighing all possible options, try to find the best among them. The elimination of uncertainty in PR requires the use of appropriate methods and procedures.

“Only decisions and plans are ideal, but people and circumstances are always real. Therefore, any managerial decision carries the possibility of not only success, but also failure.”

The central role in PR is played by the concept risk.

And in commerce, and in politics, and in economic activity, and in technical tasks, risk is often inevitable and must be taken into account. The concept of risk is very diverse and depends on the situation in which it is considered. As required by the scientific approach, in each case it can be given a specific, but certainly quantitative definition. And the challenge is to minimize that risk.

Methods for finding optimal solutions are considered in sections of classical mathematics related to the study of extrema of functions or functionals. In practice, decisions need to be evaluated from various points of view, taking into account physical (dimensions, weight, ...), economic (cost, profit, ...), technical and other aspects. This requires building decision optimization models at the same time according to several criteria- a multicriteria problem arises.

Decisions often need to be made conflict. Then game decision-making methods are used.

Thus, the task is to formalize the decision-making process (DPR) and study the mathematical methods of decision-making under various types of uncertainty.

Elements of a decision problem

Goals

Target indicators can be qualitative or quantitative depending on the conditions, including the time period for which the forecast is made:

Quality goals are called landmarks

quantitative - target functions.

The goal is described in terms of the desired result. For example, the goals are: “Choosing an educational institution”, “Placing an order for the production of products”, “Recruiting personnel for an enterprise”, etc.

The goal can be refined using subgoals or objective functions. For example, the goal "Recruitment for an enterprise" can be disclosed in the form of such objective functions as "qualification in the specialty as high as possible", "knowledge of foreign languages ​​as much as possible", "good knowledge of information technology", "additional qualifications are welcome" etc.

Strategies

The formulated goals require the development of appropriate ways to achieve them. And strategies designed for one purpose may not be applicable to another.

Alternatives

Each strategy has several options for its implementation, or alternative solutions.

The alternatives are decisions, behavior strategies,options for action they are an integral part of the PR task.

To set a task, you must have at least two alternatives.

Alternatives are dependent and independent. Independent are those alternatives, any actions with which (removal from consideration, selection as the only best one) do not affect the quality of other alternatives.

At dependent alternatives, evaluations of some of them affect the quality of others. There are various types of dependency alternatives. The simplest and most obvious is the direct group dependence: if it is decided to consider at least one alternative from the group, then the whole group must be considered. So, when planning the modernization of production, it is necessary to consider all options.

The successful solution of a problem is largely due to how accurately the possible alternatives are formulated. There is always the danger that one or more potentially better alternatives will be missed. As a rule, efforts expended in carefully identifying possible alternatives are not in vain.

Alternatives can be defined in advance, they can also be built in the process of solving the problem. An example would be the problem of choosing a city development project: having considered the proposed alternatives and noting their strengths and weak sides, it is possible to design a new alternative, free from the indicated shortcomings, and take it as a basis.

From the many options for solving the problem, one should exclude those that cannot be implemented for any reason, including within the time frame allotted for solving. The remaining alternatives form initial set of alternatives(IMA)  ={ x} .

Choice of this or that alternative хЄ  leads to the goal, but quantitative indicators of goal achievement however, will be different.

IMA formation methods

Depending on the degree of formalization of technologies, the following classes of methods are distinguished:

Empirical (causal)

Logical-heuristic

Abstract-logical (mathematical)

Reflective.

empirical methods are based on the use of common features inherent in certain practical methods for solving specific problems. These are methods for solving specific problems, accumulated in a set of rules, how to act in a particular case. For example, machine technology CBR (Case-Based Reasoning - “reasoning method based on past experience”): the analyzed decision-making situation is compared in the computer memory with all similar situations known from the past; from the database, the machine selects several situations similar to the analyzed one and presents them to the decision maker.

Logical-heuristic methods generating a set of alternatives involves dividing the problem under consideration into separate tasks, subtasks, operations, etc. to such elementary actions for which heuristic solutions and specific technologies for their execution are already known. In terms of frequency of application, these methods are leading. An example of such methods is the decision tree method.

Consider the method "decision tree". It is used to represent possible actions and to find a sequence of correct decisions leading to the maximum expected utility. This special kind a graph where there are two types of nodes: a square, where the decision is made by a person, and a circle, where everything is decided by chance. An example of such a graph is shown in Fig.1. Here the decision maker must choose one of the actions -D 1 or D 2 . The intervention of chance consists in the fact that, due to circumstances beyond the control of the decision maker, with probability P 1 he will receive the result C 1, and with probability P 2 - the result C 2 if he chooses the first solution; when choosing D 2 as a solution, he will receive C 3 or C 4 with the corresponding probabilities.

Rice. 1. An example of a decision tree

The total utility of each action is calculated as expected:

U 1 \u003d U (D 1) \u003d C 1 P 1 + C 2 P 2; U (D 2) \u003d C 3 P 3 + C 4 P 4, - and choose as the best alternative with the maximum expected utility.

Such a graph is built from left to right for the entire sequence of making multi-step decisions, and then analyzed from right to left, calculating the utility of each alternative and deleting disadvantageous decisions.

TO abstract-logical methods include those that allow you to abstract from the essence of specific actions or methods of work and focus only on their sequence. The tasks where such methods are applied include methods for the formation of plans for the execution of interrelated work (network planning and management methods, scheduling methods).

reflexive methods are used in tasks with behavioral uncertainty (economic, social, political conflicts). The method is based on the consistent hypotheses about the possible goals of another subject of the operation and the formation of responses. After that, both lists are analyzed, the alternatives of both sides are corrected and specified.

Therefore, the task is to quantify the achievement of the goal - objective function- was optimal (for example, profit - maximum, costs - minimum under certain restrictions: on resources, time, labor force etc.).

Unfortunately, there are no universal recipes to make this choice unmistakable. Therefore, the decision maker must rely on experience, common sense and continuous analysis of situations.

In this course, we will explore PPR models and their properties.

The company "Cottage" wants to expand its influence in the market. However, success in achieving the goal is also determined by the presence of competitors and their behavior. The task is to develop an optimal behavior strategy.

Example 2

The investor solves the problem of investing in a modern project. The result will depend on how well the proposed product will be accepted in the market. The task is to assess the effectiveness of the project and decide on the investment of funds.

Example 3

The Golden Key firm, which specializes in the production of sweets, faces a dilemma: should we increase the production resources of an existing plant or build a new enterprise of the same profile? According to the president, the decision depends on what share of the sales markets will belong to the company in the next ten years.

In all these examples and in many other situations, the following is common: there is a decision maker (company manager, investor, president); set of options, or alternatives  (set of strategies, dilemmas of the investor and the “Golden Key”). It is necessary to select some subset of them  0 , better - one option.

How to select  0 ? How to compare alternatives?

Any option has its own quality, which is characterized by various indicators and determines the usefulness of the considered option in terms of achieving the goal. In the aggregate, the preferences of the decision maker in this respect can be determined by some principle of optimality (OP) - “what is good”.

For example, the decision to invest in a project is reasonable if the net present value corresponding to its implementation is positive. For the president of the Golden Key, the result characterizing each of the considered alternatives can be considered the annual income of the enterprise (the more it is, the better) or profit.

Then the decision-making problem is a combination of two components (, OP) – the initial set of alternatives and the assigned optimality principle, its solution 0 .

If the options are not defined, then there is nothing to choose from, if there is no principle of comparison, then it is impossible to compare the options and find a solution.