How to open a bar from scratch. Risk assessment in the catering industry in the context of the economic crisis

This article is devoted to the study of topical aspects of risk assessment in enterprises Catering in modern conditions, the risk design process is considered. The turbulent nature of the global economy has caused significant challenges in managing the risks of domestic enterprises. Over the past decades, the catering sector has remained one of the dynamically developing sectors of the Russian economy. In the context of the sanctions imposed by a number of states, including the EU countries, which were important suppliers of this industry, market conditions has undergone changes in the direction of increasing threats, which necessitates a reassessment of the risks associated with entrepreneurial activity in this industry. The article presents an updated logical sequence for assessing the risk of catering enterprises, and also proposes an optimal risk management mechanism in the current conditions of the Russian economy.

risk assessment

implementation of sanctions policy

catering industry

1. Analytical research data RBC.research "Russian network market of public catering 2015" [Electronic resource] - Access mode. – URL: http://marketing.rbc.ru/research/562949996365197.shtml (accessed 03/15/2016).

2. Medvedeva O.V., Shpilevskaya E.V. Complex economic analysis economic activity. - M., 2010. - 154 p.

3. Rozhdestvenskaya L.N., Khasanova S.M. Risk management in public catering enterprises // Russian entrepreneurship. - 2011. - No. 8, Issue. 2 (190). - S. 118-124. – URL: http://old.creativeconomy.ru/articles/13241.

4. Savitskaya T.V., Tyukaeva I.K. Proposals for improving the intra-industry grouping of public catering enterprises // Infrastructural branches of the economy: problems and development prospects. - 2014. - No. 5. - P. 142–146.

5. Suslova Yu.Yu., Podachina L.I. Development of public catering services as a factor in improving the quality of life of the population // Problems of the modern economy. - 2015. - No. 2 (54). – S. 325–328.

In the economic sense, the category "risk", according to most economists, implies possible losses, the likelihood of which is due to the presence of uncertainty, as well as benefits or profits, which can be obtained only in conditions of encumbrance with risks. An important circumstance is that the catering services market is one of the high-risk ones.

The Russian economy is experiencing crisis tendencies associated with the global financial crisis and the imposition of international sanctions on the Russian Federation by the United States, the countries of the European Union, Canada, and Australia. In addition to the crisis situation, the problem of imposing retaliatory sanctions has also been added. Russian Federation in relation to the supply of food products from the countries of the European Union, which affects all segments this business due to rising food prices. In these conditions, suppliers increase selling prices for products, which leads to an increase in the cost of the final product and services in catering establishments. It is rather problematic to solve this problem by a simple increase in prices, given the decline in real incomes of the population of our country. In turn, the lack of sufficient funds from suppliers can lead to certain difficulties in maintaining the required assortment. In this regard, procurement problems are exacerbated, which necessitates the modification of the main risks in the management system of public catering enterprises in order to minimize financial losses. Thus, in the current difficult situation, the development of effective risk management measures for public catering enterprises, the formation of an effective risk management system is of particular relevance for management.

The public catering market of Russia for a long period remained a dynamically developing branch of the country's economy; over the past decades, there has been a continuous increase in the turnover of public catering. Even the financial crisis of 2008-2009. did not limit the growth of the catering market. Thus, many experts considered the public catering market in Russia to be one of the least affected by the financial crisis of 2008-2009. (picture).

The reasons for this success include favorable conditions in the economy and the growth of real incomes of the population. The economic downturn in Russia led to the fact that already from the end of 2014 - the beginning of 2015, a gradual decline in the volume of the public catering market began, a similar situation developed in the crisis years of 2008-2009. Crisis phenomena have a negative impact on the public catering market due to a reduction in attendance at enterprises.

Restaurants with waiter service experienced the biggest decline in traffic, and fast food establishments, which still attract customers with their speed of service and relatively low prices, have fallen to a lesser extent.

Economic recession in 2014-2015 requires a reassessment of the main development trends and risks for public catering enterprises as a social sphere. Reassessment of the main trends in the development of the public catering sector is presented in the form of a SWOT matrix in Table. one.

Dynamics of turnover of public catering in Russia. Source: RBC.research study "Russian Network Catering Market 2015"

Table 1

Modified SWOT-matrix of the Russian public catering market, taking into account the impact of the economic crisis*

Based on the SWOT matrix, it is possible to identify the main types of risks in the catering market that need to be reassessed taking into account the crisis phenomena due to the implementation of the sanctions policy. It should be noted that if in the pre-crisis period the starting period (two years after opening) did not withstand 10-15% of public catering establishments, now this figure has increased to 20-30%. Such changes are associated both with the growth in the cost of credit resources, and with the instability in the market as a whole.

To assess risks in the field of public catering, the following scale of assessing the probability of risk occurrence was used:

1) the risk will not manifest itself 0 ≤R ≤ 0.05;

2) the risk most likely will not manifest itself 0.05< R ≤ 0,1;

3) the probability of manifestation and non-manifestation 0.1< R ≤ 0,5;

4) the risk is likely to occur 0.5< R ≤ 0,75;

5) the risk is realized 0.75< R ≤ 0,95.

In table. 2 presents the risk assessment of public catering enterprises, obtained by an expert.

Risk analysis shows that, despite attempts by the Government of the Russian Federation to contain price increases, the likelihood of food price increases in the future is very high. It will stretch in the time interval, but will tend to grow.

So, insufficient and falling demand of the population, as well as the indicator "Insolvency of consumers of services", will have the most Negative influence to the catering sector, as they threaten to lose the share of customers or move them from one price group to another. The possibility of price cuts by competitors is assessed as unlikely, since the market is experiencing shocks and dumping in such difficult conditions is unrealistic.

The President of the country and the Government of the Russian Federation guaranteed the freezing of taxes and fees at the pre-crisis level, however, in the event of a further deterioration in the situation in the economy, an increase in taxation in the future cannot be ruled out.

The next type of risk "Seasonality" is a factor that had a huge impact even in the pre-crisis period, but earlier it was offset by imports. In the context of the embargo, this factor has been reinforced by limited imports of products, which may lead to higher prices. The lack of working capital is associated with an increase in the cost of a commercial loan. According to the results of the analysis, in order to obtain an assessment of the combined risks, a weighting procedure was carried out, the results of which are presented in Table. 3.

The procedure for determining the weight was carried out according to the following methodology:

All simple risks can be ranked in order of importance (prioritized). The risks of the first priority have more weight than the risks of the second;

Definition specific gravity each simple risk in their entirety - for this, the weight of the group with the lowest priority is set:

where W is the weight of simple risks by priority groups; n is the total number of risks; i - priority group, i = 1, k, k< n; k - количество групп рисков; f - величина, обозначающая отношение весового коэффициента первого приоритета к последнему.

table 2

Risk assessment in the field of catering

Table 3

Determining the significance of risks in the field of catering

(2)

All risks with the same priority are equally weighted;

Acceptable probability values ​​are accepted for low, medium and high risk (Rlow ≤ 0.3; 0.3 ≤ Rav ≤ 0.6; Rhigh > 0.6);

Acceptable numerical values ​​of the factors corresponding to their minimum and maximum are accepted;

The value of the risk is estimated by the method of expert assessments;

Weights are positive numbers, ranging from 0 to 1;

The score is equal to 1, that is

Based on the results of the analysis, it should be concluded that the following risks pose the greatest danger in modern conditions for the public catering sector:

Seasonality and possible failure in the supply of products in connection with the implementation of the imposed state sanctions;

Growth in sales of an alternative product in the form of fast food;

Insufficient demand of the population;

Insolvency of consumers of services.

One of the main measures to combat the risk of "Seasonality and a possible failure in the supply of products due to the imposed sanctions of the state" can be recommended to constantly change the range of the proposed menu, perhaps introduce budgetary "business lunches", as well as systematically study the needs of customers, more carefully approach to the choice of services provided, to expand the list of potential exporting suppliers in advance, reorienting to more favorable long-term terms of contracts for the supply of food products.

The following types of risks in terms of significance can be identified as threats associated with the general stagnant economic situation in the Russian economy, in the fight against which general anti-crisis measures can be used: the conclusion of long-term contracts, the search for corporate clients for serving complex meals, the introduction of accumulative and bonus programs in order to increase customer loyalty.

It is important that in addition to the above threats in the field of public catering, a deterioration in a number of financial indicators is also expected:

Inflation is projected to rise;

Revision of interest rates stipulated in long-term loan agreements is expected borrowed funds commercial organization;

The state of the external environment will also have a certain impact on the internal rate of return in the direction of its reduction;

Reducing the level of investment attractiveness of the industry;

Due to changes in the structure of invested capital, the share of borrowed sources of financing can be significantly reduced.

In view of the foregoing, a number of anti-crisis measures can be proposed to manage the risks of public catering enterprises:

1. Reducing the costs of premium segment companies, their transition to domestic raw materials and analogues.

2. Reduction and monitoring of inventory levels in order to optimize them.

3. Given the fall in real incomes of the population, in order to retain customers, it is necessary to temporarily reduce the trade margin to a possible minimum (margin).

4. Development of an alternative "anti-crisis" menu.

6. Revision staffing enterprises.

7. Improving the efficiency of the system of remuneration and incentives for personnel.

In the current crisis conditions for the implementation of the sanctions policy, such types of risks as “Seasonality and a possible failure in the supply of products due to the implementation of the imposed state sanctions” and “Growth in sales of an alternative product in the form of fast food” have the greatest impact on the public catering sector.

Thus, the risk management mechanism for public catering enterprises can be represented as a step-by-step algorithm:

1. Development of a risk management strategy in the context of the implementation of the sanctions policy.

2. Reassessment of possible risks in the current conditions.

3. Choice software for risk assessment calculations.

4. Development of appropriate risk management procedures.

5. Deciding on the use of internal control for each type of risk with the mandatory development of reporting forms.

6. Separation of responsibility and division of duties.

In order to determine the effectiveness of the risk management measures taken, it is necessary to provide for the use of scenario analysis: before risks are identified, when the company is in a risky situation, and after risk assessment.

The most likely scenario in the near future for the development of the Russian economy is the stagnation of the public catering market, in this regard, inefficient companies will be forced to leave it. In turn, a well-built risk management system will allow the management of these enterprises to focus their efforts on optimizing processes within the company and mobilize all available resources to resist negative phenomena in the context of the implementation of the sanctions policy.

Bibliographic link

1. Khlevnyuk Elena Igorevna
2. Syrkova Irina Sergeevna

1. Master of the Faculty of Economics and Management Processes. FGBOU VO Sochi State University
2. Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Economics and Management at the Enterprise, Sochi State University

1.Khlevnyuk Elena Igorevna
2. Syrkova Irina Sergeevna

1. Master of "Economics and management processes" faculty of Sochi State University
2. PhD, Associate Professor of "Economics and management in the enterprise." Sochi State University

Annotation: The catering industry is a growing sector of the country's economy. However, at present, this industry is experiencing a slight decline associated with the instability of the economy and is only temporary. The article discusses the risks of public catering enterprises in modern conditions, the types and causes of their occurrence, analyzes the turnover of the public catering market and identifies ways to minimize risks.

abstract: The catering industry is a growing sector of the economy. However, in the present period, the industry is experiencing a slight decline, coupled with the instability of the economy and is only temporary. This article discusses the risks of catering enterprises in modern conditions, types and causes of their origin, analyzed the catering market turnover and identifies ways to minimize the risks.

Keywords: risk, catering, analysis, economics, economic crisis, development

keywords: risk, catering, analysis, the economy, the economic crisis and development

Public catering is a separate economic unit of the economy, main goal which is the provision of public catering services to the population.

According to GOST R 50647-94: Catering. Terms and Definitions,catering — a set of enterprises of various organizational and legal forms and individual entrepreneurs engaged in the production, sale and organization of consumption of culinary products.

The catering market is one of the high-risk ones. Since the likely risks are directly related to the operation of catering establishments, it is necessary to highlight the services provided by catering establishments.

In accordance with GOST R 50764-95 "Catering services" are presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1 - Catering services

These services perform three main functions: the production of products, the sale of products and their consumption. And each of these functions contains a hidden risk that needs to be analyzed.

According to most economists, "risk" implies potential losses, the likelihood of which is due to the presence of uncertainty. However, there isthe probability of occurrence and favorable events, which is also a risk. For example, a large flow of visitors to a cafe is also a risk, as cooks and waiters may not be ready for quick and high-quality service to visitors, which will lead to negative consequences.

Consider the classification of risks inherent in public catering enterprises:

According to the area of ​​occurrence, the risks of the food industry areexternal - these are risks that are not related to the ongoing activities of the entrepreneur (for example, these may be unforeseen changes in the legislation governing entrepreneurial activity, changes in taxation, liquidation of enterprises in case of instructions from state bodies) anddomestic risks are the risks of the entrepreneurial firm itself. They arise in the case of incorrect marketing policy, inefficient management, and also due to intra-company fraud.

Depending on the types of services provided by public catering establishments, the following risks are identified, indicated in Table 1.

Table 1

Catering risks depending on the types of services.

Types and causes of risks:

Customer service risk arises when serving a visitor; when taking an order (when the waiter is incorrectly informed about certain dishes or some products are missing); when issuing an order (poor quality of the dish); speed of service provision. A decrease in production volumes due to a sharp decrease in demand, competition, an increase in purchase prices, and, consequently, an increase in the price of catering services.

The following types of risks can also be distinguished:

Supply security risk. This is very important, because in the absence of the necessary raw materials, catering enterprises will not be able to carry out their main activities.

Seasonality. If the supply of certain products is seasonal, then this must be taken into account when developing the menu so that this does not affect the orders of the most popular dishes.

Transportation costs. Typically, transportation costs are included in the cost of products, but there is a possibility of various frauds on the part of suppliers if products are supplied from markets or bases, and not through contracted firms.

Another main risk factor is the labor force (these are risks associated with the qualifications of workers, labor costs) and the risks associated with the degree of deterioration, workload and capacity of equipment.

The risk of changes in the exchange rate is very important when importing raw materials from abroad. For enterprises purchasing raw materials in foreign currency, such purchases can be both profitable and unprofitable, depending on the exchange rate.

For the normal functioning of the enterprise, supplies must be uninterrupted, so the risks associated with restricting the import of raw materials are very important. Thus, in 2015, the embargo on the import of food products from the EU. Many restaurants that previously imported almost all of their products from abroad are now faced with the difficulty of purchasing them and preparing their dishes, since there are no analogues of these products in Russia.

In order to minimize the negative impact of this factor, it is necessary to diversify the counterparties of the enterprise. Thus, it will give an advantage in choosing the price for raw materials, and will reduce dependence on one particular firm.

For a long period, the catering industry in Russia remained a dynamically developing branch of the country's economy. There has been a continuous increase in the turnover of public catering over the past decades. Many experts considered the public catering market in Russia to be one of the least affected by the financial crisis of 2008-2009. (table 2).

table 2

Dynamics of public catering turnover in the Russian Federation

* In order to ensure statistical comparability of data, relative indicators for the Russian Federation were calculated without taking into account data for the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

According to the table, it can be seen that from 2000 to 2014 there has been an increase in the turnover of catering, however, the economic crisis in Russia since the end of 2014-beginning of 2015 led to a gradual decline in the volume of the catering market.

It also follows from Rosstat data that the turnover of restaurants, cafes and bars in Russia in June 2016 amounted to 107.5 billion rubles, or 96.8% (in comparable prices) compared to the same period of the previous year, which is minus 3.2% . In May 2016, the market turnover amounted to 108.1 billion rubles, or 98.6% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year and amounted to minus 1.4%. Thus, compared with the dynamics of May, the decline accelerated. According to the results of the first half of the year, the turnover of restaurants, bars and cafes decreased by 3.7%, to 615.9 billion rubles. In the second quarter of this year - by 2.5%, to 321.1 billion rubles.

At the end of 2015, the turnover of public catering in Russia decreased by 5.5%, to 1.3 trillion rubles. The last time the catering market in Russia showed growth in 2014 by 1.6% compared to 2013.

However, the increase is observed in coffee shops and fast foods. The number of visits by Russians to these establishments increased by 4% and 3%, respectively.

Despite attempts by the Government of the Russian Federation to restrain price increases, the possibility of price increases and, as a result, taxation in the future is high. Also, the greatest danger is the imposed sanctions on the supply of goods from abroad, a decrease in demand and the solvency of the population, an increase in interest rates on loans can lead to a decrease in the investment attractiveness of the industry.

Thus, in order to minimize the risks of public catering enterprises, it is necessary to reduce the cost of purchasing raw materials by acquiring Russian counterparts at a lower price, optimize the stocks of raw materials by reducing them, and, if possible, minimize the trade margin, maybe even change the format of the enterprise. food, for example, such enterprises as mobile street food, video game bar, anti-cafe, hammock cafe, showroom, etc. are gaining particular popularity, which will be in great demand by the population federal Service state statistics. Date of access: 13.08.16 Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/enterprise/retail/#

Research RBC.research. The fall of the restaurant market in Russia accelerated to 3.2%. Date of access: 13.08.16 Access mode:http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/579f59149a79470dca4f5ac0

Bibliographic list

Summary: To open a restaurant, first of all, you need a concept. However, for your institution to be successful, it is not enough just to have an idea. It is a process whose success depends on many factors. Ignorance of which is the main reason for the collapse of the catering industry. Most new restaurants close in their first year of operation. After reading our article, you can easily bypass the risk factors and make the right decision in difficult situation.

If you decide to open your own restaurant, then you should know how successful this business is in times of economic instability and boldly go forward, despite the setbacks. Try not to listen to the pessimists "advisers". When your establishment gets satisfied regular customers, you will understand that the efforts were not in vain.

Dangers of the first year of running a cafe or restaurant

If you have already opened a restaurant, you have already experienced all the first problems of growth and development. The first year is certainly the most important, it sets the pace for the development of the institution. There is a question - “will it take off or not take off?” However, even if it “takes off” and visitors come to you, do not relax. According to statistics, not all restaurants fail in the first year. Professor HG Parsa conducted research and concluded that 59% of restaurants fail within three years.

Why is your restaurant at a loss?

I have met people from all walks of life, from the owner of a simple pizzeria to the director of a high-end restaurant. All of them already have some experience in running their own business. After talking with them, I decided to highlight the main reasons that lead to failures:

• Small start-up capital
• Poor knowledge of the competitive market
• Restaurant location in the wrong place
• bad advertising campaign
• Failures in quality of service
• Poor work organization
• Lack of proper accounting
• Failure to manage staff
• Unoriginal approach to business

Each novice restaurateur (however, this also applies to experienced restaurateurs) is simply obliged to analyze each item on this list. And do not try to comfort yourself and praise. Be honest with yourself.

Here are some important notes on each of these points.

Insufficient start-up capital is a problem for novice restaurateurs

Opening a restaurant is an expensive project. And before you get down to business, make a business plan. Remember: Even the simplest business plan is better than none.

Depending on the type of restaurant, you need a minimum of $30,000. To open my bar, I took out a loan and had some savings of my own. The loan rate is something that must be present in a business plan. Be sure to take into account all future expenses, because otherwise you will not only not make a profit, but you will not be able to pay your debts.

Pre-Opening Spending Tips:

• You don't have to spend a lot of money on decoration. First of all, it is necessary to consider the purchase of expensive equipment.
• Treat credit money the same way you treat your savings. Be reasonably frugal. All expenses that you have not planned in the business plan should be carefully considered.
• If you have legal or financial difficulties, then savings will come to the rescue. Leave them for a rainy day.

During the first year, you need to have enough money to deal with issues that will arise during the operation of your restaurant. Since you are just starting out, you will not be able to anticipate all expenses.

Pay Special attention to the following:

• High rent for space. Initially, when choosing a place for your restaurant, think about whether you have enough money to pay the monthly rent. This is the most important point your plan.
• Not enough money, but no profit yet? Start-up capital must include an amount that can cover any financial problem without the expectation of profit. Create an insurance reserve from savings.
• There are no small things in business. Searching for a supplier for a restaurant or bar, creating a menu, working with staff, protecting against theft and fraud - all these are mandatory items to be completed.

Evaluation of restaurant business competitors and profitability

In any business, success depends on market research. If you know where your competitors stumbled, which bar is more frequented, etc. you will be able to analyze the success of your future institution. Owning a restaurant is more than just renting a place, designing, hiring staff, etc. You must be prepared for the fact that in the first year you will not have free time. This is best illustrated by the following statistic: over 35% of restaurants fail in their first year, while franchises have only 10% failures.

Why are franchises more successful than independent restaurants?

Franchise owners spend the most on marketing research. The risk of going bankrupt with them is reduced to a minimum - many years of successful network experience allows you to simply acquire the right to open the same profitable place. Owning a business has a lot more risk, and when you buy a franchise, you don't have to think about the concept of a restaurant.

If you do not have a franchise and you are opening on your own, then do not hesitate to use someone else's positive experience. Study competitors and colleagues, learn and apply in your work.

Location for your restaurant

The location for your restaurant is one of the most important tasks. It is after choosing a place and determining the target audience that you will be able to develop the concept of your institution. It should be borne in mind that depending on the type of institution, you will have to choose a place to open. You should not open an elite restaurant in a residential area.

If you want visitors to come to you during lunch for business lunches or dinner after labor day, choose a location with convenient transportation, industrial centers and offices nearby.

Dormitory areas are an ideal environment for family holidays, holidays and just evenings with friends. It is also very important to consider the presence of competitors in your chosen area. Visit their establishments and look at the organization of work.

No promotion - no profit at the cash desk of the cafe

In the age of technology and the Internet, it must be taken into account that people learn about new places no longer from newspapers and rumors, but on websites, social networks and forums. Be sure to consider how you will promote your restaurant. A competent advertising campaign will ensure the influx of new visitors immediately in the first days and weeks of work. Don't skimp on restaurant advertising. But don't waste your money on outdated advertising media. Think about your target audience: where they live, where they work, where they go, and what they read. Successful marketing ploy the most important thing for a new establishment. However, this is a topic for a large separate article on promotion. restaurant business. Subscribe to Blog.

Menu planning and restaurant pricing

The main mistake of a novice restaurateur is to include his favorite dishes in the menu. All people have a specific taste, especially since the dishes do not always coincide with the concept of the institution. It is very important to adapt the restaurant menu to the contingent.

Pay special attention to the preparation of the menu and the price of the dishes. Carefully compare the cost price, the price of ingredients and profit. If you set the price too high, you should not expect guests to want to return to you. The price for the dishes should correspond to the quality of preparation and service that you offer.

Poor organization of work in the restaurant

If your partner also owns the business, then you should be prepared for the problems that arise in a relationship with a partner.

Business and relationships are incompatible, and therefore it is very difficult to remain friends and at the same time have a common cause. Financial risks, documentation problems - these are all situations that can destroy a friendship. You and your partner should take care of each other by creating a working atmosphere. Many restaurants were at risk of bankruptcy due to numerous disputes and conflicts of their owners.

Partners must cooperate and decide together how best to get out of a difficult situation. They must objectively consider the facts and analyze the situation. You must determine the "points of contact" and the meaning of the relationship.

For a good partnership, it is necessary to clearly understand and distribute the contribution of each participant to the business. Partners must be sure that together they can achieve the desired result. The best solution is the distribution of responsibilities at the initial stage.

And the cornerstone of success is the organization of work aimed at the satisfaction of your customers. you need to make your subordinates feel your support and take care of the visitors.

Restaurant owners go to great lengths to ensure that their establishment has the best service, forgetting to study the customer population for their restaurant. If you understand your guests, you will be able to satisfy all their requirements and exceed all expectations. Understanding customers should be a priority for restaurant development. Try to put yourself in the place of the visitor. Carefully study the menu and analyze which items are ordered most often. Ask customers to evaluate the quality of service and listen carefully to their wishes and suggestions.

Lack of accounting, control and analysis of the restaurant business

In order to optimize the work in the restaurant, special attention should be paid to inventory, accounting and warehouse management. Reducing unnecessary expenses and preventing employee fraud are very important points in running a restaurant business.

According to statistics, the monthly profit of the bar loses about 20% of sales due to theft. Now think about how much money you will lose every month just like that.

Pay special attention to, accounting and analysis of your restaurant business. Choose carefully. Do not buy the cheapest and free programs, they are useless. But don't chase the expensive ones either, unless of course you're opening an elite large chain of restaurants. Choosing the best POS software for your establishment will significantly affect the optimization of work.

Changing the quality of service

If you have good service and a well-thought-out menu in your restaurant, this is a guarantee that you will have visitors. If you only tried to serve everyone as comfortably as possible in the first year of work, set affordable prices, etc., and then lowered the quality of work and dishes over time, do not expect that your regular customers will return again.

Maintain the quality of service in your restaurant at the same level and try to constantly improve it. In order to make a good profit and have regular visitors, it is very important not to change the recipe of dishes, not to try to save money on their preparation. People want to come back to you just because they liked something.

This does not mean at all that the menu does not need to be improved. Novelties, seasonal dishes or a new interior detail - all this should be present. Clients should see that you are trying for them, creating something new.

Visitors always want one thing - delicious food at a reasonable price. If they feel like they didn't get enough food for their money, or too small portions, guess where they'll go? to your competitors.

Lack of original ideas for a restaurant

AT modern world it is very difficult to create something original and well thought out. Therefore, new restaurateurs often make the mistake of opening a restaurant without their own “zest”. Before thinking about the concept of your restaurant, attend trainings, go to conferences, study the market and see which restaurants are making good profits.

Even if you run a family-run steak and fries restaurant, people should want to come to you. Think about what exactly your institution should appeal to visitors.

Results: Now that you know all the "pitfalls" of the restaurant business, you can explore the market and create an institution that will bring you not only joy, but also profit.

Regardless of your plans, a restaurant may fail in its first year of operation or its second. However, you must remember - if you work hard and put your soul into your favorite business, this will definitely give a result.

Your Master Rurto

Project underfunding risk

This risk is one of the most common. The degree of stability of the project marketing system is directly proportional to the number of sales outlets opened and the involvement of individual entrepreneurs in the trade in the products of the kitchen factory. Each of these small projects involves investing in the opening of new outlets. Underfunding in this area will entail the risk of a significant reduction in production volumes, sales volumes and project profitability.

Way to prevent risk: detailed study of the feasibility study of the project, taking into account the development of its own distribution network.

Business competitiveness risk

A decrease in the competitiveness of a business can be caused by one of the following reasons:
– decrease in the quality of products;
– decrease in the purchasing power of the population;
– entry into the market of a larger or professional competitor;

Method of risk prevention: a complex of strategic and operational risks of the project must be constantly monitored by specialists of the Management Company “___________. The functions of the management company are to manage business changes in terms of minimizing risks. If it is impossible to mitigate certain risks by the MC, consultants should be invited to solve the problems.

Risk of loss of brand trust

Loss of trust in a brand can be caused by the following circumstances:
- a sharp deterioration in product quality;
– cases of consumer poisoning;
– malicious information struggle of competitors;

Ways to prevent risk:
– introduction of a program of industrial sanitary control with dedicated staff units (at least 5 for a network of enterprises);
– introduction of a strict system of bonus deductions for production
management in case of violation of the quality system rules;
- continuous work of trainers and masters of industrial training (ideological aspects of quality assurance);
– strict laboratory control of the incoming quality of raw materials;
– implementation corporate culture among employees;
– introduction of the institution of mentoring;
– the presence of a program for working with the population, which implies the continuous receipt of all negative reviews and timely response to these reviews.

Personnel poaching risk

The risk of enticement of personnel lies in the plane of the policy for the formation of material and non-material incentives for personnel. In 90% of cases, poaching of personnel is possible provided:
- the absence of a targeted program to stimulate the career growth of employees at the enterprise;
- the presence of an unfavorable psychological climate in the team;
- activities of a disloyal trade union and informal leaders in collectives;
– lack of prospects for wage growth

– development of a career development program for young people;
- creation of a program to maintain the corporate spirit at the enterprise;
- Availability social package for staff;
– a special system of contractual legal obligations;
– work of an invited psychologist at the enterprise;
- the presence of a mutual assistance fund at the enterprise;
- the action at the enterprise of a "loyal trade union".

The risk of increasing purchase prices for raw materials

The risk of increasing purchase prices for raw materials can be leveled in the following ways:
– introduction of effective mechanisms for managing the cost of production;
- change assortment list products with a large predominance of seasonal products;
– decrease in the volume of bookmarks of products;
– decrease in yields of certain dishes;
- injection of meat products with harmless additives;
– change in the proportions of output volumes (shift of emphasis towards an increase in the volume of output of products of the medium and low price category.

Risk of loss of project control

The risk of loss of project control can be caused by:
– change in the personnel of the management company and the departure of its head;
- change of personnel of production management;
- violations in the work of the automation system of enterprises;
- the emergence of barriers to the transparency of the accounting policies of the enterprise;
– permanent cases of violation of production technologies

Ways to prevent risk:
-creation of a special system of personal motivation for the management of the management company and production management;
- installation of the company's automation system, tested and debugged remotely at any minute of real time;
- the impossibility of deviating from the once established principles of accounting and obtaining operational information at the enterprise;
– introduction of a production control program by the management company.

Risk of abuse

The risk of abuse may be associated with the following circumstances:
- collusion of unreliable employees;
– failures in the work of the security service (collusion with security)
- an inefficient system automated accounting at the enterprise.

Ways to prevent risks:
– the introduction of a strict security regime and the availability own service Sat;
– installation of video surveillance systems in production;
– implementation integrated system business automation class ERP

Risk of illegal methods of struggle from competitors

The risk of illegal methods of competition with the use of administrative resources and unscrupulous propaganda is warned:
- contrasting this administrative resource with an equally effective resource;
– negotiations with top officials of competing organizations;
– improving the control regime for the quality of products and services at enterprises

Profitability risk

The risk of a decrease in business profitability may be associated with:
-inefficient policy of purchasing products;
- inefficient work of logistics;
- inefficient mechanisms for managing the material cost of production

These risks are prevented by a timely response to the market situation of the Management Company "__________". Such a response is possible only if there is an automated system for the timely receipt of information for the manager.

Project risks and ways to insure them

Modern business insurance offers make it worthwhile to insure such risks as:
- lost profit;
- the risk of loss of property;
- risk raider capture etc.

finished documents, power point presentations

In the course of its activities, the project cafe may encounter the following types risks:

External risks:

▪ deterioration in the possibility of obtaining raw materials and various materials;

▪ increase in prices for raw materials and supplies;

▪ changing consumer requirements;

▪ increased competition;

▪ changes in prices and demand for the firm's products;

▪ loss of positions in the market;

▪ unexpected trends in the development of the industry;

▪ difficulties in obtaining a bank loan;

▪ change in the general economic situation in the country, including changes in the taxation system, exchange rate, increase or unexpected decrease in inflation, social instability in the country.

2. internal risks:

▪ disruption of work plans due to lack of labor force, lack of materials and violation of the terms of their delivery;

▪ non-fulfillment by customers and contractors of their obligations (for objective and subjective reasons);

▪ errors in work planning;

▪ changes in management;

▪ change in technology, deterioration in the quality of manufactured products and a decrease in labor productivity;

▪ direct damage to property (transport accidents, equipment, materials, property of contractors, destruction, theft or damage to goods during transportation, risk associated with natural disasters), indirect losses associated with the dismantling and redeployment of damaged property, violation of the work schedule;

▪ financial risk.

Risk management procedures should be aimed at reducing the likelihood of risk situations. The following methods can be used to reduce the level of risk:

v diversification. Assumes the distribution of investment funds between the various activities of the company. Incurring losses in one type of activity, it can make a profit by developing another activity. This approach is a good basis for ensuring the sustainability of the enterprise to changes in the internal and external environment of the company.

v insurance. To reduce the degree of risk, property insurance is used (insurance of the risk of contract construction, insurance of equipment, cargo, etc.), accident insurance (that is, general civil and professional liability insurance), insurance of the price of goods against the risk or undesirable for the manufacturer of its fall , or an unfavorable increase for the consumer (hedging).

v limitation. It involves setting limits on the amount of expenses, sales volumes on credit, on capital investments, etc.

v reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses. Creation of a fund of funds to cover unforeseen expenses related to the elimination of the consequences of the onset of risk: financing of additional work, compensation for an unforeseen increase in material, financial and labor costs arising in the course of the enterprise's operation.

v distribution of risk. Sharing risk between project participants

v obtaining all necessary, reliable information about the forthcoming choice and results.

In our case, it seems appropriate to use insurance and reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses.

It is also necessary to remember that any situation is easier to prevent than correct, so the cafe management needs to pay special attention to the diversification of production, marketing research market conditions, the use of letters of credit for goods, price adjustments, the creation reserve funds etc. The more complete and reliable information about the external environment is obtained, the more opportunities there will be to prepare a good forecast and reduce the risk.

CONCLUSION

Thus, the goal of the project is to create a themed children's cafe "Rainbow" in the South-Western district of the city of Odintsovo (at the intersection of Pushkin and Lenin streets) to serve the residents of the city.

The activity of the newly created enterprise is aimed at providing services in the field of public catering for people with an average income level.

The chosen location and theme of the cafe are determined by the increased demand from potential consumers and the absence of direct competitors.