Consider an example of making a management decision in an enterprise. Examples of Management Decision Making

Introduction

The relevance of the topic is determined by the fact that the life process of each organization is associated with the process of continuous change and development. An organization can achieve its goals only if its changes are adequate to the changes and requirements of the existing economic environment of market relations.

For state of the art science is characterized by a transition to a global consideration of the degree of development of the problem "Technology for making managerial decisions", many works are devoted to research issues. Basically, the material presented in the educational literature is of a general nature, and in numerous monographs on this topic, narrower issues of the problem "Technology for making managerial decisions" are considered. However, it is required to take into account modern conditions in the study of the problems of the designated topic.

The high significance and insufficient practical development of the problem "Technology for the adoption of SD on the example of a trading enterprise" determine the undoubted novelty this study. Further attention to the issue of the problem of "Technology for the adoption of SD" is necessary in order to use modern technologies for making managerial decisions, which is important for a manager, one of whose main professional skills is the ability to make effective managerial decisions. And in a fiercely competitive struggle, all other things being equal, those organizations achieve success, develop steadily and survive, which put themselves at the service of additional opportunities provided by management decision-making technologies.

The topic of this work is the technology of making managerial decisions on the example of a trading enterprise CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M"

The object of the study is the activity of wholesale - retail enterprise CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M".

The subject of the research is the development of management decisions at the enterprise.

The purpose of the thesis is to study and evaluate experience, develop effective technologies in the process of preparing, making and implementing management decisions, as well as developing recommendations for their improvement.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1. To reveal the theoretical foundations for the development of management decisions.

2. Identify problems in the development of management decisions.

3. Investigate the development of management decisions at CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M.

4. Suggest ways to improve the development of management decisions at CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M.

IN thesis the following research methods are used: theoretical analysis of documentary and literary sources, analysis of documents, interview. The received research material was significantly supplemented by such a method as participant observation.

Knowledge. A significant contribution to the study of the problems of management efficiency, organization behavior in solving the set goals was made by economists and practitioners I. Ansoff, H. Wissema, P. Drucker, M. Porter, G. Simon, A. Strickland, S. Fisher and others. V.V. Glushchenko, A.G. Ivasenko, I.D. Ladanov, A.E. Saak, L.E. Sokolova and others. E.I. Brazhko, E.P. Golubkov, O.S. Vikhansky, I.L. Kardanskaya, L.I. Lukicheva, R.A. Fatkhudinov, E.Yu. Khrustalev, L.P. Yanovsky and others.

Of the foreign authors who worked on the problem under study: T. Boydell, N. Winner, F. Kotler, R.D. Lewis, M.H. Mescon, M. Albert, F. Hedouri, F. Harrison and others. Practical significance. The methodology and results of the study can be useful for organizing types of service industries. The developed recommendations make it possible to improve and improve the management decision-making system at the ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M enterprise.

The basic accounting and reporting information on the enterprise CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M for 2004-2007 served as sources of information for writing a work on the topic "Technology for making a managerial decision".

The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that the developed recommendations make it possible to improve and improve the management decision-making system at the enterprise CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M.

Work structure. The study consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a bibliographic list. The introduction substantiates the relevance of the choice of topic, sets the goal and objectives of the study, describes the research methods and sources of information.

Chapter one reveals general questions, reveals the historical aspects of the problem "Technology for making managerial decisions". The basic concepts are determined, the relevance of the sounding of the questions "Technology for making a managerial decision" is determined.

In the second chapter, the content and modern problems of "Technology for making managerial decisions" are considered in more detail.

Chapter three is of a practical nature and, on the basis of individual data, an analysis of the current state is made, as well as an analysis of the prospects and trends in the development of "Technology for making managerial decisions".

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for the development of management decisions

1.1 Essence and characteristic features of management decisions

There are many definitions and interpretations of the concept of "management decision". Here are some of them:

1. A managerial decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and choosing an alternative from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal of the management system.

2. Management decisions are, first of all, the creative and volitional influence of the subject of management, based on knowledge of the objective laws of the functioning of the controlled system and the analysis of management information about its state, aimed at achieving the goal.

3. A managerial decision is a choice that a leader must make in order to fulfill the duties due to his position. The global goal of developing and adopting any management decision is to provide a feasible and most effective option for moving towards the goals set for the organization.

4. Management decision is a creative act of the subject of management, aimed at eliminating the problems that have arisen in the management object.

5. Management decision is a creative, mental act of the subject of management, which, based on the requirements, goals and emerging tasks and using data analysis and information about the object, determines the program for the subsequent activities of the team and individual employees.

6. A managerial decision is one of the necessary moments of volitional action, consisting in choosing the goal of the action and the methods for its implementation.

7. A managerial decision is the result of a specific managerial activity. Decision making is the basis of management. Each managerial function is associated with several general, vital decisions that need to be implemented.

8. Management decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and selection of alternatives from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal of the management system.

9. A managerial decision is a deliberate conclusion, to take some action or, conversely, to refrain from them.

One of the basic concepts and components of the actions of entrepreneurship and management is the concept of "solution".

The decision is called the choice of alternatives of a certain course of action to achieve the goal.

An alternative is one option to achieve a goal that excludes another option.

Management decision is the basis of the management process. To manage means to decide. The term "management decision" is used in two main meanings - as a process and as a phenomenon:

Management decision as a process is the search, grouping and analysis of the required information; development, approval and implementation of management decisions;

· A management decision as a phenomenon is a plan of action, a resolution, an oral or written order, etc.

The essence of management decisions is associated with the social, economic, organizational, legal and technological interests of the organization (Figure 1.1).

Rice. 1.1 The essence of management decisions

The economic essence of management decisions is manifested in the fact that the development and implementation of any decision requires financial, material and other resources. Therefore, every management decision has its own cost. The implementation of an effective management decision should bring direct or indirect income to the company, and an erroneous decision leads to losses, and sometimes to the termination of the company's activities.

The organizational essence of a management decision is that in order to develop and implement SD, a company must have the following capabilities, including:

Form a workable team;

Develop instructions and regulations governing the powers, rights, duties and responsibilities of employees;

Allocate the necessary resources, including financial and information;

Provide employees with the necessary equipment;

Establish a control system;

Constantly coordinate the process of development and implementation of SD.

The social essence of the managerial decision lies in the personnel management mechanism, which includes leverage on the employee in order to encourage him to be active in the team. These levers include:

Needs; - interests;

motives of behavior; - installations;

Human values.

The legal essence of a management decision is the strict observance of regulatory legal acts, as well as the charter and other documents of the company itself. Violation of the law in the development of SD can lead to the cancellation of the decision, legal liability for its implementation.

The technological essence of a management decision is manifested in the possibility of providing personnel with the necessary technical, information tools and resources for the development and implementation of SD. When planning the development and implementation of SD, the manager must simultaneously form a technological basis for it.

Through the decision, the goal, types, scope of activities, rights and responsibilities are established, the actual state of phenomena, objects at a given time, etc. is fixed.

Accordingly, a management decision is reflected in the form of various kinds of documents, for each form of development of a management decision, its own set of implementation forms is used (Figure 1.2).

Rice. 1.2 Joint use of forms for the development and implementation of management decisions

Describing the reasons for the need for decision-making, it seems possible to single out decisions:

1. logically determined by the technology of the process;

2. random, the need for which arises if the problem is generated by factors that may or may not appear when goals are achieved.

Management decisions are usually classified according to the following grounds (Fig. 1.3, 1.4).

1. Depending on the degree, managerial decisions causing the need for development and adoption are divided into programmed, non-programmed.

Highly structured, i.e. resulting from the implementation of a certain sequence of actions and steps;

Weakly structured (non-programmed), required in situations that are new to a certain extent, not internally structured or associated with unknown factors.

2. By reason (nature of acceptance):

Intuitive decisions - a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct;

Based on judgments, accepted on the basis of knowledge and experience. They are based on a forecast of future results. The method guarantees the prevention of gross errors.

The rational way of solving problems is called the best. It involves the formulation of all possible alternatives, the development of a system of the preferred option.

3. According to the degree of novelty:

Traditional decisions make up about 90% of decisions made in recurring situations. They are mainly used at the middle and lower levels of management.

Decisions made in new situations, to solve new problems, are called original. They require collection and analysis additional information and manifestation of innovative abilities of the leader.

4. According to the degree of certainty:

5. By nature:

Strategic decisions - decisions regarding a set of actions aimed at achieving the goals of the organization through its adaptation (adaptation) to changes external environment.

Current decisions are decisions that develop and refine future decisions and are made within a subsystem or stage of one of its cycles, such as a development cycle.

Operational decisions - decisions covering production processes for the manufacture and supply of elements of a lower level, bringing the planned target to specific performers in each division.

6. By functional orientation:

Planning - based on a special study to form a conclusion about the possible development and results of any management process;

Organizational - provide for the formation of a new or improvement of the existing structure of the company's management, as well as a set of administrative measures to organize the implementation of the task;

Activating - to increase the efficiency of the task, they form decisions to enhance the activities of the company's employees through stimulation and mobilization;

Coordinating - when unforeseen in terms of interfering influences appear, they are necessary to harmonize the company's activities;

Controlling decisions are aimed at ensuring the timely implementation of plans and planned development milestones;

Informing decisions are aimed at familiarizing the initiators and executors of the decision with the information they need, as well as with the intermediate and final results of the task.

7. For reasons:

Situational management decisions are caused by events that disrupt the planned course of events. Usually these are current, daily decisions of the head. A large number of them indicates an inefficient management process and the possibility of a crisis.

Management decisions on prescription are determined by the relevant regulations.

Program management decisions are long-term and universal in nature, determine the main directions of development, are the basis for more detailed decisions designed to achieve the objectives of the program at each stage of its implementation within a certain time frame.

Initiative decisions are made by managers who occupy a fairly high, dominant position.

8. According to the degree of regulation:

Regulatory decisions must be implemented, and do not imply any initiative.

Orienting decisions determine the possible options for the activities of employees, when certain conditions occur.

9. According to the number of criteria:

Single-criteria decisions allow evaluating alternatives based on one criterion (indicator), the degree of importance of which may depend on objective conditions or be determined subjectively by the decision maker.

When evaluating multi-criteria decisions, a system of indicators is used. This creates the necessary difficulties, since it is necessary to select and evaluate their impact on the final result.

10. By organization:

The individual form of organization of managerial decision-making is characterized by the fact that the head alone (individually) makes a decision and bears personal responsibility for it.

In the collective form, all members of the collective participate in the decision-making process (based on voting or consensus).

The collegial form of decision-making means that the work of preparing and making a decision is performed by a group of specialists authorized for this by a team of employees.

Decisions that have quantitative characteristics (approval of the budget, attraction of investments, setting tariffs for land lease services).

Decisions that do not have quantitative characteristics (the formation of a corporate culture, the solution of personnel issues, the management of public relations) are subjective, as they are determined by the personality of the subject who makes them.

12. Direction:

Decisions for influencing the external environment of the enterprise concern the immediate environment, partners, customers, creditors;

Decisions for influencing the internal environment of the enterprise are associated with a managed system (for example, a change in the staffing table, which will entail a reduction in employees or the development of a new management structure, as a result, a new position of a top manager will appear).

13. By scale:

General - affect the entire enterprise, its production and financial and economic activities. General management decisions determine fundamental changes in the enterprise, as well as the further development of production (computerization of production and management processes, the transition to the production of new products, the reorganization of the enterprise, etc.);

Private - relate to any subsystems that affect current issues (for example, about discipline, about dismissal of an employee, about changing the work schedule of a department, etc.).

14. According to the degree of alternativeness:

Certainty - the choice of an alternative in conditions where the results of each of the options are known exactly;

Uncertainty - the choice of an alternative in the face of the impossibility of assessing the likelihood of potential outcomes;

Probabilistic certainty - the choice of an alternative in the face of ambiguity in the results of the options.

15. By the nature of development and implementation (by style):

Balanced decisions imply that the efforts of the decision maker to find and evaluate alternatives are distributed approximately equally. These solutions are effective for performers with high classification and high self-esteem;

Impulsive decision implies that the preparation of alternatives takes much longer than the assessment, and the decision is subjective and risky. For the effective implementation of impulsive decisions, a high personal and professional authority of the leader among subordinates and his high charisma are required;

Inert decisions mean that the process of finding different solutions is slow and uncertain. Such decisions are secondary, and the cost of justifying them far exceeds the effort spent on finding options. They weakly activate the staff to implement decisions. Inert solutions are effective in the current process of management activities, good support from managers at all levels, and, if possible, to lobby their interests in the external environment.

Risky decisions are characterized by a higher intensity of work at the stage of searching for alternative options than at the stage of their evaluation. Such decisions are characteristic of gambling people - players. These solutions are effective in the general positive attitude of the leader and performers, when a possible failure does not significantly worsen the material and social condition of the team. Risky decisions usually use insurance or other methods to reduce possible damage; Cautious decisions are characterized by the thoroughness of the leader's collection of all options, a critical assessment of alternatives, and a large number of approvals. Such decisions are effective in resolving problems related to human life and the state of its environment. For example, decisions related to the activities of personnel at nuclear, thermal and power plants

The composition, structure, content and form of management decisions are determined by the specified criteria and the classification basis. so, for all their potential value, decisions will remain only good wishes if they are not translated into concrete actions. It is better not to start a business at all than to make unprofitable, and even unlawful decisions only on the grounds that they are well known, convenient, or suit someone.

The main means of managerial activity that determine the technology of its implementation are information support, organizational management techniques, conditions for managerial activity (organization of the workplace) and, of course, professional-business, socio-psychological and others. personal qualities the subject of the activity.

1.2 Main elements of management decisions, basic requirements for them

The result of the manager's work is a managerial decision. The whole activity of the organization depends on what this decision will be, it also depends on whether the goal will be achieved or not. Therefore, the adoption of a decision by a manager always presents certain difficulties. This is due both to the responsibility that the manager takes on and to the uncertainty that is present when choosing one of the alternatives.

The main element of each managerial decision-making process is the problem, which is understood as the discrepancy between the actual state of the managed object (for example, in the provision of services) to the desired or given, i.e., the goal or result of the activity. The development of a plan of action to eliminate the problem is the essence of the decision-making process.

The simplest, "ideal" decision scheme in Figure 1.5 assumes that the process is a co-current movement from one stage to the next; after identifying the problem and establishing the conditions and factors that led to its occurrence, solutions are developed, from which the best is selected.

Rice. 1.5 Steps in the decision-making process

A more detailed structuring of the decision-making process is shown in Figure 1.6, where each of the stages (statement of the decision-making problem, decision-making, choice and implementation of the decision) highlights the procedures necessary to implement the targets of each stage.

Thus, the basis for setting the decision-making problem is the occurrence of a situation that causes the appearance of a problem. The description of the problem situation gives an idea of ​​the factors that need to be carefully analyzed and considered when solving. First of all, it is required to establish whether they are internal or external in relation to this organization, since the possibilities of influencing these two groups of factors are different.

The internal environmental factors of wholesale and retail companies, to the greatest extent, include: goals and development strategy, production and management structure, financial and labor resources, purchasing and sourcing, marketing, inventory management. They form an enterprise as a system, the interconnection and interaction of elements of which ensures the achievement of its goals. Therefore, a change in one or more factors at the same time causes the need to take measures of managerial influence aimed at preserving the properties of the system as an integral entity.

The first group of external factors is practically uncontrollable by the managers of the organization, but it has an indirect (indirect) influence on its activities, which must be taken into account. It refers to the state of the macroeconomic environment in which a particular industry operates. Usually these are economic, socio-demographic, political, legal and technological factors. For example, economic condition country (region) affects the work of the organization through such environmental parameters as the availability of capital and labor, price levels and inflation, labor productivity, buyers' income, government financial and tax policies, etc. Thus, inflation leads to a reduction in purchasing power and reduces demand for products manufactured by the organization. An increase in the level of prices for products of related industries causes a corresponding increase in production costs in the organization, which results in an increase in prices for its products and can cause an "outflow" of a certain group of consumers. When their incomes are reduced, buyers change the composition and structure of consumption, which can also affect demand. The level of scientific and technological development in the country has a strong influence on the structure of the economy, on the processes of automation of production and management, on the technology by which products are manufactured, on the composition and structure of the personnel of organizations, and, most importantly, on the competitiveness of products and technologies. Accounting for numerous and diverse environmental factors, choosing the main ones among them and foreseeing possible changes in their mutual influence is the most difficult task facing leaders and managers.

The second group of external factors is less influenced by the managers of the organization. It includes the state of the microeconomic environment, which denotes aspects of the external environment that directly affect the organization due to its close interaction with the internal structures of the organization. In such a business environment, competitors, suppliers, consumers, labor markets and financial institutions operate, which initially shape the plans and activities of the company.

A necessary element (and parameter) of the managerial decision-making process is the assessment of the actions that are taken at its various stages.

A managerial decision is a decision made in trading system and directed: management of managed activities; marketing planning; financial planning; human resource management; interaction with the internal and external environment.

Thus, the decision-making process in retail trade should be carried out taking into account the characteristics of this area of ​​the economy, as well as the influence of internal and external factors and constraints. This will help improve the quality and validity of decisions at all levels of management.

At the first stage, the target setting is most often used as a criterion for recognizing a problem, by the deviation from which the problem is judged.

The decision development stage begins with the collection and processing of the information necessary to develop a course of action.

At the stage of selecting and implementing a solution to a problem, various criteria are applied to allow one to choose from a variety of project proposals acceptable ones, and from them - the most useful or preferable for solving the organization's goals. The quality of management decisions depends on how reasonably they are chosen, and this, in turn, determines the competitiveness of the organization, the speed of its adaptation to changes in the economic situation and, ultimately, efficiency and profitability.

Decision makers are called decision subjects. These may be individuals or groups of managers who have the authority to make decisions. In addition, experts can be involved in the process of development and decision-making at all its stages - specialists in specific problems, procedures, stages. Experts can provide significant assistance in setting the problem, in developing possible situations; they can set goals and set limits, develop solutions and evaluate their consequences, and so on. Experts are responsible for their recommendations.

Management decisions developed and adopted in organizations affect the interests of many people. The leader must be able to explain to the performers, top management, why he made this or that decision. There are a number of requirements for a managerial decision table 1.1.

Requirements for management decisions and conditions for achieving

so, the presented scheme of the decision-making process reflects the logic of management activity, and not its complexity. In practice, this process is more complex and allows not only the sequence, but also the parallelism of a number of procedures, which can significantly reduce the decision-making time. It helps to identify important problems of a particular company, as well as the degree of uncertainty in which it operates. The effectiveness of this process largely depends on the methods that managers and leaders operate in performing all the necessary types of managerial work.

1.3 Algorithm and methods for making managerial decisions

The most important organizational aspect of the development and implementation of management decisions is the organization of the sequence of work required to complete this process. Here, the type of management that exists in the enterprise is of particular importance.

The theory of algorithms defines the concept of "algorithm" as an exact prescription that determines the process of information transformation. Decision development algorithm - a logical sequence of operations for the development of a management decision

Consider possible algorithms for the development and decision-making process for various types of management.

1. Under traditional management:

Identification of the problem;

Collection of information;

Information analysis;

Identification of the problem from the previous one;

Forecasting by analogy;

Evaluation and verification of solutions;

Adoption, execution, bringing to the executors of the decision, its execution, control of implementation.

Thus, decision-making in traditional management is based on studying past experience in solving similar problems, as well as predicting consequences by analogy with previously observed consequences. These features leave their mark on the decision-making algorithm, which includes stages related to the identification of a similar problem and the prediction of results by analogy with those already obtained.

2. With system management:

Identification of the problem;

Collection of information;

Analysis of information about the system as a whole and about the relationships of its elements;

Problem diagnosis;

Determining the goals of element management when solving a problem at the system level;

Development of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the solution;

Development of options for possible actions on the subsystem that is the source of the problem;

Predicting these actions for the system as a whole;

Evaluation and verification of these actions;

Acceptance, registration, bringing to the performers, execution, control of execution.

Thus, in system management, when understanding the organization as a set of interrelated elements, decision making is based on the analysis of information about the system and its components, as well as predicting the consequences for the elements of the system and the system as a whole.

3. With situational management:

Identification of the problem;

Gathering information about the situation;

Analysis of information about the situation;

Diagnosis of the problem and situation;

Determining the goals of managing the situation in solving the problem;

A list of possible actions to resolve the situation, forecasts of their consequences;

Verification, evaluation of solutions;

Adoption, execution, bringing to the executors, execution, control over the implementation of decisions.

The situational approach focuses on the fact that the suitability of various management methods is determined by the situation, therefore, the decision-making algorithm includes the stages of collecting and analyzing information about the situation, determining the goals of managing the situation when solving a problem, and predicting the consequences of control actions for the situation.

4. With social - ethical management:

Collection and analysis of information about the managed object (about problems and how it was solved);

Problem definition;

Determining the goals of solving the problem;

Development of criteria for evaluating an effective solution;

Prediction of consequences for various solutions;

Development of criteria for the optimal solution;

Verification of options;

Choosing the optimal solution;

Design, bringing to the performers, execution, control.

In social and ethical management, special attention in decision-making is paid to taking into account the permissible and not permissible consequences of options for control actions for various parameters.

5. With stabilization management:

Identification of the problem;

Collection of information about changing parameters;

Information analysis;

Problem diagnosis;

Determination of management objectives when solving a problem;

Development of decision evaluation criteria;

Study of the dynamics of the parameters of the control object;

Determining the time during which the object can still be stably controlled;

Distribution of available time for the preparation and execution of decisions to stabilize the managed object;

Development of solutions;

Forecast of the consequences of their application;

Evaluation of the implementation of various options;

Choosing the best option;

Acceptance, registration, bringing to the performers, execution, control.

Naturally, to solve specific problems using one or another type of management, these algorithms can be changed in accordance with the specifics of a particular problem.

In the process of developing and making managerial decisions, the decision maker can apply various methods that directly or indirectly contribute to the adoption of optimal decisions according to various criteria.

In the literature on management and decision-making technology, there are various approaches to the classification of methods. In this paper, a classification is adopted according to the degree of formalization: non-formalized, formalized and combined. The criterion for referring to a particular group is the use of quantitative methods of information.

Non-formalized (heuristic methods) of decision making are distinguished by a creative approach to finding alternatives; they are based on the analytical abilities of the decision maker.

The advantage of informal methods is that they are applied quickly. The disadvantage is that the methods do not always guarantee the choice of error-free solutions; intuition can also fail the manager.

Figure 1.8 shows the characteristics of a sample of non-formalized methods for developing management decisions.

Rice. 1.8. Non-formalized methods of making managerial decisions

Gordon method. The essence of the method: the formation of a working group of non-specialists on the problem under consideration. Purpose and conditions of application of the method: to overcome the established ideas in solving the problem under consideration. Features of the method: use non-traditional approaches in solving the problem.

Method of motivational research. Essence: the most important type of marketing research (mainly qualitative), which consists in studying the motives for buying a certain product / service at the unconscious, subconscious and conscious levels of the buyer's psyche. Purpose and conditions for applying the method: to improve the company's marketing policy in order to increase demand for goods / services.

Method of morphological analysis. Essence: possible combinations of solving the problem are identified and then studied. A morphological matrix can be used, where the solutions are located by sinks, and the elements of the problem itself by columns.

consumer expectation model. Essence: the model is a forecast based on the results of a survey of the organization's customers. They are asked to evaluate their own future needs as well as their new requirements. By collecting all the data obtained, the manager can accurately predict aggregate demand.

round table method. Essence: in accordance with the method, a special commission, which is part of this round table, discusses relevant issues in order to harmonize opinions and develop a common opinion.

inventory method. Essence: compiling a list of difficulties that stand in the way of solving this problem, discussing options for eliminating or overcoming barriers in making and implementing a decision.

The formalized methods for developing solutions are based on a scientific and practical approach that offers the choice of optimal solutions using EMMM and computers. This can also include statistical methods, they are based on the use of information about the past experience of the organization in any field of activity for development and implementation and are implemented by collecting, processing and analyzing statistical materials both obtained as a result of real activity and artificially developed by mathematical methods. computer simulation.

balance method. Essence: a method that allows you to make balance comparisons, linkages. For example, revenues and expenses, costs and profits are compared, and the most profitable option is selected.

Histogram method. Meaning: An illustration of the frequency of occurrence of individual parameter values ​​appears in the form of a histogram. It shows (horizontally) the number of relevant cases or their share in the total number of cases for each parameter value (horizontally). The histogram shows the frequency of occurrence of average values. Different solutions can be chosen, but more often the most probable ones are chosen.

Game theory method. The essence of the method: assessment of the impact of the decision on competitors. Purpose and conditions of application of the method: used to determine the most important factors that require consideration in a decision-making situation in a competitive environment. Features of the method: not used so often due to the complexity and dynamism of the external environment.

Factor analysis method. Essence: the analysis allows to carry out the maximum possible account of the totality of variables characterizing the object and the relationship between them. At the same time, the forecaster is forced to seek a compromise between the number of variables in the description, which reflects the completeness of the forecast, and its complexity, labor intensity.

Method functionally cost analysis. The essence of the method: the identification of areas of imbalance between the functions of the object and the cost of them. Purpose and conditions of application of the method: used to select solutions and optimize the costs of performing the functions of an object without compromising their quality. Features of the method: has a high practical usefulness.

IDEF modeling method. The essence of the method: analysis and development of systems. Purpose and conditions for applying the method: it is used for modeling and analyzing the activities of enterprises, as it provides a rich set of opportunities for reengineering business processes. Features of the method: the method is based on the technology of structured analysis and development.

Combined methods for developing management decisions combine elements of non-formalized and formalized methods, shown in Figure 1.11.

SWOT analysis method. Essence: SWOT analysis methodology involves establishing the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment of the organization, as well as identifying the opportunities and threats of its external environment. Establishing chains of links between these parameters allows you to develop strategic directions (goals) for the development of the organization.

Delphi method. Essence: analysis of the situation by generating ideas, discussing them, evaluating and developing a collective point of view. Purpose and conditions for the application of methods: used to discuss the problem that has arisen and to establish the main factors that determine its further development. Features of the method: high requirements for the level of qualification and competence of the leader who leads the meeting of experts.

Decision tree method. Essence: This is a schematic representation of a decision problem. Like the payoff matrix, the decision tree gives the manager the opportunity to “consider various courses of action, relate financial results to them, adjust them according to the probability assigned to them, and then compare alternatives.” The concept of expected value is an integral part of the decision tree method.

Brainstorming method. Essence: This method is the most well-known of all group methods of using creativity. Brainstorming is applicable to a very wide range of problems. However, it is especially useful in diagnosing situations and suggesting alternatives. The main stages of applying the method of "brainstorming":

1. A small group is formed for work, preferably no more than eight people; 2. A chairman is selected to coordinate the activities of the group. The task of the secretary is to ensure that all ideas put forward are registered; 3. All members of the group become familiar with the situation; 4. The leader of the group gives a brief comment and communicates the purpose of the work; 5. As a result individual work group members put forward the maximum number of ideas in a limited time (usually half an hour); 6. All ideas must be registered; 7. Encouraged to use (not copy) the ideas of other members of the group; 8. Discussion or criticism of the ideas put forward is not allowed. This rule is especially important in brainstorming situations where it is very easy to show disapproval by verbal or non-verbal means; 9. After the completion of the stage of putting forward alternatives, they are discussed and evaluated. At the same time, it is possible to put forward new ideas, which can be combinations, generalizations of previously put forward ideas, or completely new ideas.

The method is nominally group. Essence It differs from other group methods in that the stage of evaluation of individually put forward ideas is regulated in more detail. The nominal group method includes the following main stages.

1. Members create independent lists of ideas; 2. Each member of the group describes one of his ideas to the whole group; 3. Once all ideas are listed, they are discussed and evaluated by the group; 4. To reach the final decision, the members of the group vote separately for each of the ideas put forward.

Method of multi-stage survey. Essence: when using the multi-stage survey method, each expert should give an assessment on a predetermined scale in the interval, or arrange the objects by decreasing their value - ordinal ordering of any set of elements. To obtain a high-quality forecast, the participants of the examination are subject to a number of requirements:

High level of general erudition;

Deep specialized knowledge;

The presence of scientific interest in the object under study in the absence of material interest in this area;

Research experience in this area.

An important element is the anonymity of experts. It helps to avoid "pressure of authority", the emergence of interpersonal conflicts based on differences in status or social coloring of opinions.

Forced connection method. Essence: This method is based on the connection of ideas, but the degree of freedom is limited by the objects in question, which are usually chosen arbitrarily. Often the participants in the discussion turn to areas that they have never considered before. Forced linking is especially useful in situations where new uses are being sought for existing products or services.

Payment matrix method. The essence of the method: evaluation and comparison of alternatives according to several criteria. Purpose and conditions for the application of the method: in the conditions of the need to take into account several parameters when evaluating alternatives. Features of the method: the validity of the choice of criteria for achieving strategic goals is important.

So, the values ​​of the decision will remain only good wishes if they are not translated into concrete actions. Methods can be generic, suitable for any problem, and can be specific. Which method to apply depends on the real content of the problem, and not on the knowledge, desire and ability of the manager or employee. It is better not to start a business at all than to accept unprofitable, and even unlawful methods, only on the grounds that they are well known, convenient, or suit someone.

So, for successful problem solving:

First, to notice and analyze the problem in a timely manner in order to find out what led to its occurrence, and in fact strive to solve it.

Secondly, do not waste time on unnecessary decisions that do not affect the efficiency of the company.

Thirdly, constantly evaluate the effectiveness of the decision-making process, and subsequently the implementation of the decision.

Fourth, do not make multiple decisions on the same issue.

Fifthly, to involve employees related to them in the decision-making process already at the earliest stages of work, taking into account the correspondence of their qualifications to the degree of complexity of the problem; educate them as needed and don't forget to reward them for their success.

Decision-making technology is a set of scientific methods, models and techniques for developing and making managerial decisions.

Chapter 2 management technologies on the example of the company CJSC "VNESHTORGSIB - M"

2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise and the mechanism for making managerial decisions at the enterprise CJSC "VNESHTORGSIB - M"

CJSC Firm Vneshtorgsib-M has been operating on the Russian market since 1993. Since its foundation, the company has focused on the supply and trade of imported goods.

Firm "Vneshtorgsib - M" is the official representative of the German trade mark "PAPSTAR" - the only large-scale project of goods for a cozy interior in Russia, holiday table, cocktail and buffet, picnics and holidays, aromatic line.

The goals of the creation of the society are: meeting the needs of individuals and legal entities in products (works, services) produced by the Company; Receiving a profit.

The mission of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M is to meet the demand of customers by providing them with high-quality and related products at affordable prices.

CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" currently has the following divisions:

1.Wholesale base

2. Administration, located on the street. Kotovskogo 5

3. Shop "Gifts" on the street. Ordzhonikidze 27

4. Shop "Gifts" on the street. Kotovskogo 5

5. Shopping center"Podmoskovye" opened in July 2006, the format of the cash-and-carry shopping center.

6 Dedicated station for renting and renting Hobby brand trailers Germany and Hymer caravans,

Germany, trailers-tents brand "Camp-Let", Denmark, as well as their repair. Works since June 2007.

Figure 2.12 shows the share of activities of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M in the total volume.

Figure 2.12 The share of activities of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M in the total

Positive advantages in terms of internal resources are the following features:

The company has a high level of professionalism, which is important, as well as the desire of consumers to have an unlimited choice in the goods and services presented to them.

A positive factor is the presence of a developed logistics infrastructure, which allows you to plan stocks, make deliveries just in time.

The enterprise has implemented partially integrated automation of business processes, automation of business management operations in accounting departments and stores, which allows making operational management decisions and adequately responding to market changes, a unified document flow has been implemented that speeds up business operations.

The range of the enterprise under study is presented by the following product groups in table 2.2:

Table 2.2 The range of goods presented in the subdivisions of CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M

A lot of attention is paid to the assortment formation policy at the enterprise under study - a constant assessment of the completeness and stability of the assortment is carried out.

When forming the assortment, the financial director of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M focuses on the demand of end consumers of products. CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" strives to fully satisfy the needs of customers.

In order to intensify and stimulate sales, ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M uses advertising and public relations. The advertising spend limit is currently capped at 3% of revenue generated.

The main goal that is recommended to be pursued by CJSC "Vneshtorgsib-M" when organizing own work, can be reduced to the following: to help ensure that the company's advertising policy meets the consumer needs of potential buyers.

The organizational structure is presented in more detail in Appendix 1.

The function of the head office is to direct activities and control, the entire decision-making process is concentrated in the head office.

In accordance with the current functional structure of enterprise management, the following composition of the main functions and services that ensure their implementation is approved, see Appendix 2 in more detail:

· CEO

Involved specialists – lawyer, translator, technical staff, security service.

financial department - financial director, finance manager;

accounting - chief accountant, accountant, senior cashier;

Human resources department - head of the personnel department - clerk;

trade department - commercial director; deputy commercial director; wholesale manager, retail manager

Stores – division directors, section heads, senior salesperson, sales consultants

· Wholesale depot – director, merchandiser, sales consultant, driver, mechanics.

So, let's briefly describe functional duties company employees and departments.

General Director - he is at the head of the company, without a power of attorney represents on behalf of the Company; represents the interests of the Company in all Russian and foreign institutions, enterprises and organizations; enters into transactions on behalf of the company, with the exception of those, the conclusion of which is within the competence of the general meeting of shareholders, the Board of Directors and the Management Board of the Company; enters into employment contracts (contracts) with employees of the Company, with the exception of members of the Board of the Company; issues powers of attorney; issues orders and instructions binding on all employees of the Company.

The financial director is the right hand of the commercial director, develops a marketing policy at the enterprise based on an analysis of the consumer properties of the products sold and predicts market demand and market conditions.

The commercial director - this person on the scale of this company performs a large number of functions that were very interesting to me, as the future manager of the organization. Since the entire burden of the direct process of managing the movement of goods, compiling primary documentation, work with personnel (managers), organization and holding of meetings and presentations. And also, drafting commercial proposals, managing money spent on advertising campaigns, business correspondence, etc.

Table 2.3 Functional structure of ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M

so, at this enterprise there is a functional principle of construction and specialization of the management process according to the functional subsystems of the organization. The functions of the Vneshtorgsib-M head office are to direct and control activities, the entire decision-making process is concentrated in the head office. In CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" the final result recedes into a secondary plan, due to the fact that each service does not work to obtain it, but to fulfill its "mechanical" duties.

In order to increase the competitiveness of the company ZAO Vneshtorgsib - M, it is important to have clearly defined and set goals and objectives, since it is a well-set goal that will affect the efficiency of the enterprise. It is also necessary that each division of the enterprise set a specific goal for itself, which, together with others, will help achieve a common goal. To achieve the goals of the enterprise, each department performs the appropriate tasks, respectively, the tasks also play a significant role in the internal structure of the enterprise.

The existing technology for making and executing decisions does not allow to bring the tasks of the upper level (profit, sales, saving resources) to all the lower divisions.

2.2 The process of making management decisions at the enterprise CJSC "VNESHTORGSIB - M"

Management decision-making is based on certain documentation. All documents that circulate in the document management system, CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" are divided as follows and are presented in Appendix 3.

The decision-making process is reflected in all aspects of management. Management activities in terms of the formation and implementation of decisions at the enterprise CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" consists of the following stages:

1. Preparation of a management decision

2. Providing procedures for making and making a management decision

3. Implementation of a management decision

4.Planning management decision

5. Control over the implementation of the solution

Table 2.4 Distribution of powers at the stages of decision-making technology in CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M

As can be seen from the stages of the process, managerial decision-making is highly dependent on the personal factor, since in fact decisions in the company are made by only one person, the general director.

With the help of the management matrix, one can illustrate the level of distribution of powers in making managerial decisions in an enterprise.

"1" indicates the actual responsibility.

"2" - general guidance.

"3" - the need to consult.

"4" - "opportunity" to consult.

"5" - must be notified

Table. 2.5 Distribution of powers in decision-making

We will assess the level of decision-making using a 5-point system (see Table 2.6).

Table 2.6 Evaluation of the level of decision-making by the personnel of the enterprise

so, as can be seen from the process of making managerial decisions, decision makers partially show attempts at a creative approach, but basically the whole process is implemented on the implementation of a specific decision set by the general director. The decision-making management process in ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M is authoritarian. The adoption of managerial decisions strongly depends on the personal factor, since in fact decisions in the company CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" are made by only one person - the general director

There is no informing the staff about the current results of the enterprise's activities; employees are informed about the changes taking place after the fact.

2.3 Typical problems of the enterprise CJSC "VNESHTORGSIB - M"

The inefficiency of the existing decision-making mechanism at the enterprise ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M is evidenced by the fact that the enterprise has an outdated management system.

The retail industry plays a big role in our lives. Therefore, retail companies are commercial organizations selling goods and services to the consumer for personal and household consumption. Retailers provide goods and services only by the piece, their customers are end consumers who buy goods and services for personal use, and not for resale to third parties.

As a service industry, retail must rely on its employees to represent stores to the consumer, creating important touch points with them. Therefore, personnel costs should be one of the most important expense items in the industry. However, the retail industry has a poor reputation as a job creator. Retailers must provide services to people when they really need them, which increases the length of the working day and work week in the industry.

Accordingly, one of the problems of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M is the lack of qualified sales personnel. The company constantly has a turnover of salespeople - consultants, so after the new year, four salespeople quit at once.

In the course of the work, an oral survey of employees of the organization under study was conducted. 26 out of 36 employees were interviewed.

Let's analyze the received information.

The amount of wages.

80% of respondents noted average satisfaction with the size of wages. It is necessary to increase the material incentives for employees by raising wages or organizing a system of bonuses and bonuses to raise the indicator.

Prospects for professional and career growth.

The survey showed that more than half of the employees do not see growth prospects in this organization.

Management should take a greater interest in the growth and progress of employees. This can be expressed in the fact that the employee will be entrusted with more complex work, you can delegate more responsibility to the employee for the performance of certain work.

Relationship with immediate supervisor.

80% of the respondents answered that they were not satisfied this indicator.

The importance and responsibility of the work performed.

Only 40% of the surveyed workers meet this indicator. This is due to the small number of staff. It is important to understand that the mistake of even one employee can affect the financial position of the company.

Relationships with co-workers.

60% of the respondents answered that they were quite satisfied with this indicator. In the future, the organization should implement activities aimed at maintaining good relationships between employees.

Opportunities for independence and initiative in work.

All respondents answered that they were not satisfied with this indicator. The General Director of CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" should be given more initiative in the duties performed by employees.

CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" still manages to some extent to compete with large firms and federal operators, due to the ability to establish low prices, being the official representative, due to the high quality of goods and shops located in the city center. And keep your market niche.

Important for the formalization of expert information is the ability of an expert to compare and evaluate the possible values ​​of the features of the object of analysis by assigning a certain number to each feature. Depending on the scale on which these preferences are set, expert assessments contain more or less information.

In the general case, it is assumed that the opinion of a group of experts is more reliable than the opinion of an individual, i.e. that two groups of equally competent experts are more likely to give similar answers to a set of questions than two individuals.

The experts were asked to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise. Experts at the first stage of the analysis assessed the weight of each of the listed parameters for the industry. The parameter weight characterizes its importance, priority, in the total set of indicators.

Table 2.7 Analysis of strengths and weaknesses of ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M

The external environment is of exceptional importance for commercial enterprises. To present it, we will briefly characterize the main parameters of the external environment that also affect the enterprise CJSC "Vneshtorgsib - M" (Table 2.8).

Table 2.8 The external environment of the enterprise CJSC Vneshtorgsib - M

Using the matrix "importance of effectiveness" in the table, according to the results of the analysis, we will compile the highest and lowest importance, which is worth paying attention to (Table 2.9)

Table 2.9 Importance-Effectiveness Matrix

so, the level of decision-making at the enterprise is low, this is reflected in its financial condition. It is necessary to improve the financial result, increase the market share and the effectiveness of the management system as a whole. To do this, first of all, the enterprise needs to improve the system of development and decision-making.

Chapter 3

It is recommended to the enterprise "Vneshtorgsib - M": - to implement in management the decision-making algorithm for situational management, described in clause 1.3; - allocate responsibility for collecting and analyzing information about the situation; - involve employees of the company in decision-making, with the provision of greater powers to them; - decision-making to carry out with the help of various methods of management decision-making technology. We will illustrate the application of these measures by evaluating the increase in the efficiency of financial accounting.

3.1 Efficiency of management decisions in ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M

Evaluation of the effectiveness of a management decision is determined not only by its validity, but also by the degree of its implementation in accordance with the requirements of the decision maker.

Efficiency comes from the word "effect", meaning the impression made by someone on someone. This impression can have organizational, economic, psychological, legal, ethical, technological and social overtones. The effect can be observed or formed.

Management of the effectiveness of a management decision is implemented through a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators, norms and quality standards.

The efficiency of the trading enterprise is ensured by the successful implementation of services. The resources of the enterprise and the requirements of cost-effective work to a certain extent limit the maneuvering, both in the range of services and in the prices for them. But it is the focus on customer demand and its active formation should determine the use of available resources.

The ratio of results and costs characterizes the effectiveness of any activity or phenomenon. It can be positive or negative. Thus, we can talk about organizational, economic and other efficiency.

In our case, we will talk about the effectiveness of financial results.

Trading activities of CJSC "Vneshtorgsib-M" are divided into main and management and auxiliary. The main activity involves the sale of goods, works and services. Auxiliary, performs repairs and reconstruction, construction of buildings, structures; repair of official vehicles, supply of materials necessary for the operation of the enterprise, etc. The manager performs regulatory and supervisory functions.

Let's pay attention to the main trading activity and consider the dynamics of changes in trade turnover in the table over the past four years.

Table 3.10 Changes in the turnover of the company CJSC "Vneshtorgsib-M"

Considering the dynamics of sales, we note that the main demand for goods and services offered to the consumer falls on the second, third and fourth quarters of the year. The seasonality of demand for products is very important. Comparing four years, we note that every year there is an increase in trade by about 20 percent. This is due to the opening of the Kotovsky store in 2005, the Moscow Region store in 2006, and a specialized station on Chasovaya in 2007. In 2004, the territory was purchased, where the construction of a specialized station began and continues to this day. In this regard, in the next three years, the costs of the enterprise increased to the maximum for: the maintenance of additionally attracted workers; purchase of building materials and goods and materials; fixed assets. From the table you can see a stable increase in costs: in 2005 compared to 2004 they increased by 21.9%; in 2006 compared to 2005 by 21.4%; in 2007 by 21%, and compared to 2004 - by 79.2%. The diagram and graph of changes in income and expenses are shown in Figure 3.15, respectively.

Fig.3.15. Diagram of changes in income and expenses

Fig.3.16. Schedule of changes in income and expenses

According to the diagram, it is convenient to study the change in income and expenses for four years. Studying the chart, you can immediately pay attention to the point of intersection of income and expense. At this point, the company is on the verge of profit or loss. In connection with the expansion of activities, there was a need to increase the staff, so from 2004 to 2007 the number of employees increased from 42 to 70 people, which led to an increase in the payroll compared to 2004 by 47.7 percent.

With the increase in turnover, the cost of transporting goods increased by 38.7%.

The construction of the station required significant cash. The company's own funds, which remained from retained earnings, were not enough, in connection with this, credit resources were attracted, the interest on which increased the item "administrative expenses" by almost 100 percent.

Administrative expenses also increased due to: recruitment costs, security services, legal services (documentation).

Rent, utility bills, communications, information services, and general business needs have not changed significantly in four years.

Although the turnover also increased compared to 2004 - by 74.5%, it can be concluded that the management personnel, headed by the general, financial director and chief accountant, did not track the growth of costs, did not take measures to minimize them. This led to a deplorable result: by the beginning of 2007, the profit was replaced by a loss (748 thousand rubles). Also, wage arrears increased by 12,132.

For further analysis and management of costs, it is advisable to classify them into variable and fixed.

Variables:

Cost of goods;

Transportation of goods;

Materials used in the repair;

Remuneration of employees;

international negotiations;

Technological costs.

Permanent:

Rent and utility payments;

Administrative;

Nutrition;

Acquisition of fixed assets;

Communication, information services;

General business needs.

so, evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of decisions is the most complex, time-consuming and lengthy stage of the decision-making process. At the same time, this is also the weakest link in the process of managerial activity, as evidenced by the delays in implementation and the lack of effectiveness of implemented decisions observed in management practice.

In the company's activities, a necessary condition for effective functioning is the balance of interests of all business participants (owners, managers, staff, contractors, customers, etc.).

The enterprise is considered quite large in terms of turnover, but the organization of activities is at the level of a small enterprise and at present management accounting as such is not provided. In the next one, we will try to organize management accounting, primarily by identifying centers of financial responsibility and introducing budget management.

To implement a subsystem management accounting it was necessary to conduct a business diagnostic (a kind of "inventory") of the company. In the process of business diagnostics, an assessment is made of the current state of the structure and management system of the company and an analysis of the effectiveness of the existing system financial planning and control in terms of completeness, reliability and promptness of information provision. An assessment of the current state of the management system in CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M was carried out at the beginning of this chapter, on the basis of which a decision was made to introduce management accounting.

After the diagnostics, the concept of creating a financial system is developed. The goals, objectives and principles of its construction, the composition and structure of the system (financial responsibility centers, forms of regulations) are determined. The description of the processes of planning, control and analysis is carried out. Then the order of development, implementation and maintenance of the system is determined. The action plan for the implementation of management accounting is presented below. Action plan for the implementation of management accounting

Stage 1. Preliminary

a) Analysis financial condition organizations to justify the need to introduce management accounting

b) Definition of goals, objectives and principles for building the structure of the management system

2) Stage. Organizational

a) Development of a policy for the introduction of management accounting

b) Formation of financial responsibility centers

c) Training activities for department managers

3) Stage. Basic

a) Setting deadlines for submitting budgets for review and approval

b) Development of the form and formation of budgets by cost and profit centers

c) Formation of consolidated and general budgets

d) Implementation of a budget management system based on the 1C program

4) Stage. controlling

a) Implementation of the control system economic group for expenses incurred

b) Quarterly meetings following the results of the reporting period

The implementation of the financial system goes in two directions:

· the main budget of the company is developed, which is a system of integrated budget planning of all activities and depends on business processes;

· budgets of structural subdivisions and consolidated budgets are built, the composition of which depends on the organizational structure of the company.

At the end of the year, before the fifteenth of December, each division submits its quarterly budget for the next year to the management for consideration. Until the 25th, a commission consisting of the general director, financial director, chief accountant and directors of divisions approves the budget for the next reporting period.

When building a financial system, it is necessary to provide and build a system for monitoring the implementation of budgets. It consists not only in the timely presentation of budget data and the creation of budgets, but also in the analysis of deviations of the actual values ​​of budget items from the planned ones. Based on the analysis of deviations, appropriate management decisions are made.

Let's consider an example of analysis of actual results. Let the income be planned for the amount of 5000.00 rubles, the expense for 4500.00 rubles, then the profit is 500.00 rubles.

1) income - 4800.00, expenses - 4200.00, profit - 600.00. IN this case the division manager did not complete the income plan by 4%, but reduced costs by 6.7%, thereby increasing profit by 100.00 rubles (by 20%). By and large, this option can satisfy the higher management, with the condition that the manager will work on increasing profits.

2) income - 5200.00, expenses - 4800.00, profit - 400.00. The situation is reversed - income compared to the plan increased by 4%, and expenses increased by 6.7%, which led to a decrease in profit - by 100.00 rubles. Conclusion - it is necessary to introduce measures to reduce costs.

3) income - 5200.00, expenses - 4300.00, profit - 900.00. Perfect Job commendable manager. By increasing revenue by 4%, he reduced costs by 4.4%. And the division's profit increased by 80%.

4) income - 4800.00, expenses - 4900.00, loss - 100.00. In this case, the manager did not fulfill the income plan by 4%. A 9% increase in costs resulted in a loss. The unit needs to revise the cost item to reduce them.

Control over the expenses incurred is carried out by the head of the unit - the cost center, profit, and before paying the necessary costs, they must be endorsed by the financier, confirming that the payment went through the budget of the unit. Off-budget payments are made on the basis of a memo and budget adjustments.

The system of control over the execution of budgets involves holding meetings as part of the management of the enterprise and directors of departments at the end of each reporting period - a quarter, where they discuss: the causes of negative deviations in profits and costs from the budget; the need for activities to increase sales and minimize costs. At the end of each quarter, according to the positive results of the execution of budgets, the units that have fulfilled the plan are rewarded in accordance with the established bonus rates.

The budget management system can be implemented on the basis of the 1C program, which will make it possible to monitor the execution of the budget on a daily basis, both by individual departments and by the enterprise as a whole.

The company directs the main working capital to pay for the goods. In this regard, the problem of monitoring the timeliness of payment and compliance with the terms of contractual conditions is very important. In order to be able to control payments to suppliers, it is necessary to develop a form for planning payments, which will show not only the total debt, contractual payment terms, arrears and the cost of inventory, but also the turnover by supplier. All this information will allow you to evaluate the effectiveness of working with a particular supplier, and provide automatic control over the terms of payment, which will lead to control over the cost of production. In CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M, based on accounting data, an analysis of the dynamics of the development of retail trade turnover for 2004-2007. allows us to draw the following conclusions:

· Retail trade turnover of CJSC “Vneshtorgsib-M” is increasing from year to year, its growth rates are high;

· reached the growth of turnover for all commodity groups, which are traded by the company;

· the increase in trade turnover, mainly achieved through the effective use of all types of resources: commodity, labor, etc.;

· In 2007, the company was actively working on additional purchases of goods from the manufacturer and other suppliers.

At the same time, the ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M enterprise did not use all the opportunities for increasing the turnover in 2004-2007. Thus, the volume of retail trade could increase due to:

· improving the availability and efficiency of the use of commodity resources;

· increase: the efficiency of the use of labor resources;

increasing the efficiency of using the material and technical base of the company. The search for new suppliers and, as a result, an increase in the range of goods will allow CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M to reduce the impact of the seasonal factor on the change in turnover.

The calculation of seasonal fluctuations in the turnover of the enterprise under study is given in table 3.11.

Table 3.11 Calculation of seasonal fluctuations in the turnover of ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M (thousand rubles)

The volume of turnover for the planned year by months is determined by multiplying the average monthly plan of turnover by the seasonality index.

The company's turnover plan for the year is set at 24 million rubles. The average monthly turnover is 2 million rubles. Using the data in the table, we calculate the store's turnover plan for March. It will be: 2 million rubles. * 1.172 \u003d 2344 thousand rubles.

The final stage of planning is the determination of the commodity structure of the turnover. The extent to which the range of goods sold will meet the demand of the population largely depends on the financial result of the enterprise. For traditional groups of goods, in practice, the economic and statistical method has proven itself well, when, based on the current rate of change in sales volumes of individual product groups, adjusted for expected changes in the economic development of the enterprise in the coming period, a plan for their implementation is established.

Proposals for the further development of the retail trade turnover of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M: to improve the company's commodity supply and increase the efficiency and use of commodity resources. To this end commercial service enterprises significantly expand the purchase and sale of related products (for example, the sale of decorative lamps), which are available in sufficient quantities from manufacturers and other suppliers, and pay more attention to concluding agreements with suppliers.

The increase in commodity resources will make it possible to obtain an increase in trade turnover, to achieve an increase in the efficiency of the labor of sales workers.

To this end, it is advisable to employ persons on a part-time basis, to install modern cash registers, carry out a combination of professions, positions, work to prevent absenteeism and reduce loss of working time due to illness and other reasons.

Improving the use of the material and technical base of the enterprise.

To this end, to establish the optimal mode of operation of the enterprise, to introduce progressive forms of trade, to reduce to a minimum the conduct of inventories, inspections, the economic service of the enterprise to develop forecasts for the development of retail trade for the coming period and conduct operational monitoring of the implementation of forecasts;

This will allow the management of CJSC "Vneshtorgsib-M" and its services to promptly resolve issues of ensuring and efficient use of all types of resources, to achieve a rhythmic and uniform development of retail turnover by periods of the year and by departments of the enterprise.

Necessary:

Improve the system of material incentives for the work of company employees (increasing the number of goods sold, serving the largest number of customers, receiving income from the sale of goods, etc.);

introduce a journal-order form of accounting at the enterprise, more quickly present data on retail for making managerial decisions;

To carry out computerization of management accounting at the enterprise, use the reference computer system for consultations, clarifications, etc.

Thus, due to the developed management decision, the enterprise can actually achieve its goals and increase the overall performance indicator, reduce production costs.

so, improving the process of making managerial decisions and, accordingly, improving the quality of decisions made is achieved through the use of scientific approach, models and decision-making methods.

Conclusion

Improving the process of making managerial decisions and, accordingly, improving the quality of decisions made is achieved through the use of a scientific approach, models and methods of decision making. The goals set in the introduction, in my opinion, are disclosed in the work. Summing up, some conclusions can be noted.

A decision is a choice of an alternative. The need for decision-making is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity, occurs at all stages of the management process and is part of any management function.

Decision-making (management) in organizations has a number of differences from choice individual person, since it is not an individual, but a group process.

The nature of the decisions made is greatly influenced by the degree of completeness and reliable information that the manager has. Depending on this, decisions can be made under conditions of certainty (deterministic decisions) and risk or uncertainty (probabilistic decisions).

The complex nature of the problems of modern management requires a comprehensive, comprehensive analysis of them, i.e. participation of a group of managers and specialists, which leads to the expansion of collegial forms of decision-making.

Decision-making is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that has a certain duration and structure. The decision-making process is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, choosing the best one and implementing it.

Decision making is the most important thing in a manager's job. Therefore, it is necessary to learn how to make decisions even in the process of learning, and not when the fate of the enterprise already depends on the leader. In addition, now you can study not only on own mistakes but also on the experience of other people and organizations.

So, we have considered and characterized the decision-making process from a technological point of view. Let's summarize the results of the work:

1. A decision is a choice of an alternative, a conscious choice from the available options for a course of action.

2. A decision is a product of managerial work, and its adoption is a process leading to the emergence of this product.

3. The choice of a solution should be based on the characteristics of the problem situation.

4. Depending on the approach to the decision-making process, technologies of this process are distinguished. However, they all distinguish three main stages: defining the problem, developing a solution, and implementing the solution.

5. All responsibility for the decision is assigned to the head, manager. Currently, there are no practical, constructive methods or technologies for making group decisions or decisions in the face of opposition with many active participants. Far from being satisfactorily solved are many of the relatively simpler problems of individual decision making. Thus, the processes taking place in the administrative apparatus are much more complicated than those for which analytical approaches have already been developed. Thus, our hypothesis was confirmed. However, consideration of the problems that have arisen in a strict logical sequence makes it possible to fruitfully combine formal and heuristic methods in the process of preparing and making a decision and achieve a higher quality of it.

6. The work of the consultant-analyst plays a huge role and is of primary importance. Reality requires a combination of many qualities from him: the art of analyzing situations, deep professional knowledge, techniques and methods of decision-making, the ability to present recommendations, and professional skills in working with people.

In our opinion, in the coming decades, many so-called. the behavioral sciences will certainly take a step forward. Then it will be possible to build much more efficient technologies decision making. But already now it is necessary to consider the decision-making process as a procedure, the main participants of which are the manager and analysts. It is the human aspects, not the mathematical or machine aspects, that are central to the decision-making process. It is on these aspects that criteria for testing the practical value of technologies and decision-making methods should be based in the future.

Proposals for the further development of the retail trade turnover of CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M: to improve the company's commodity supply and increase the efficiency of the use of commodity resources.

To this end, the commercial service of the enterprise should significantly expand the purchase and sale of related products (for example, the sale of decorative lamps), which are available in sufficient quantities from manufacturers and other suppliers, and pay more attention to concluding contracts with suppliers. The search for new suppliers and, as a result, an increase in the range of goods will allow CJSC Vneshtorgsib-M to reduce the impact of the seasonal factor on the change in turnover.

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Attachment 1

Organizational structure of ZAO Vneshtorgsib-M

Introduction 2

1.1.Characteristics and analysis of the object of study. 4

1.1.1. Characteristics of the object of study 4

1.2. Identification and assessment of the problem situation 10

1.2.1. Identification, formulation of problems and formation of a catalog of problems. 10

1.2.2. Analysis of the problem situation. 15

1.2.3. Establishing the causes of the problem situation. 17

1.3 Formation of goals, criteria and restrictions. 17

1.3.1. Formation of goals. 17

1.3.2 Formation of criteria. 17

1.3.3 Formation of restrictions. eighteen

1.4. Building a decision tree. 19

2. Theoretical part. twenty

2.1. Application of the multidimensional scaling method in the development of management decisions. twenty

2.2.Factor analysis in making managerial decisions. 22

2.3. Method "Efficiency - costs" 24

3. Design and calculation part. 26

3.1. Description of solutions. 26

3.1.2.Efficiency-cost analysis 28

3.2.2. Factor analysis. 29

3.2. Organizational and information support of SD 31

REFERENCES 34

Introduction

The basis of the effectiveness of any organization is a reasonable, high-quality management decision. A managerial decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and choosing an alternative from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal.

The development of management decisions provides a toolkit with which you can identify the problems of the organization, optimize many processes, reduce the risk of adverse events, and reduce their negative consequences.

In the process of developing and making a management decision, it is very important to create conditions for ensuring its high quality and efficiency. These conditions include:

use of scientific management approaches in the development of management decisions;

taking into account the impact of economic laws on the effectiveness of management decisions;

application of methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification of management decisions;

structuring the problem and building a tree of goals;

providing multivariate solutions;

ensuring the comparability of alternative options for management decisions;

legal validity of the accepted managerial decisions;

creation and maintenance of the system of responsibility and motivation for a high-quality and effective management decision;

the presence or creation of a mechanism for the implementation of management decisions.

1.1.Characteristics and analysis of the object of study.

1.1.1. Characteristics of the object of study

1. Name of the projected enterprise:

OOO "Triumph"

2. The mission of the enterprise: providing high-quality, affordable hairdressing services to the population

3. The main goals are:

profit maximization

risk reduction for the enterprise

achieve competitive advantage

creation of a network of hairdressing salons "Triumph"

7. start-up capital: own funds in the amount of 5 million rubles.

8. amount of expenses: 4874258.9 rubles.

9. specific weight of profit in the company's revenue;

10. offer price: 3486 rubles.

11. volume of offer: 1980 rubles.

Table 1

Indicators characterizing the financial condition (for the reporting year - 1 and the planning period - the next year).

From the financial plan it can be seen that the company remains generally profitable and unprofitable, which indicates the economic feasibility of running a new business. But it is planned to reduce the demand for services.

Assessment of competitiveness by the method of multidimensional scaling.

Its main idea is to develop an order (scale) of following the characteristics, which, if possible, reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called stress that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of the scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only property A is more important than property B, then on the basis of the constructed scales it can be said that property A is more important than property B by so many units (of course, units are relative, but to analyze the relative position of properties on the scale priorities, it doesn't matter.

The score is formed on the basis of a survey of consumers. It is advisable to analyze the competitiveness of the enterprise and services separately.

Assessment of the significance of indicators of the competitiveness of the enterprise.

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Its main idea is to develop an order ("scale") of following the characteristics, which reproduces the results of ranking the characteristics by the respondents as accurately as possible. At the same time, the shortcomings noted above are removed, and all available information is taken into account (including the exclusion by respondents of certain characteristics from the ranking).

Multidimensional scaling allows you to resolve the contradiction with the formation of closed sequences of characteristics - it reveals all the signs that guided the respondents when ranking (there is a criterion called "stress" that allows you to assess whether it makes sense to look for additional scales), and establish the order of characteristics for each of scales.

Another positive aspect of multivariate scaling is data type strengthening: if the initial estimates had ordinal properties, then the final scales are already interval ones, i.e. if on the basis of the initial ranks it was possible to say only “property A is more important than property B”, then on the basis of the constructed scales we can say that “property A is more important than property B by so many units” (of course, units are relative, but for the analysis of mutual the location of the properties on the priority scale is unimportant).

Fig1. Significance of indicators; consumer preferences.

Thus, for consumers, the most important characteristics of the enterprise are the cleanliness and convenience of the location, which corrects the point scale of the competitiveness of the enterprise, taking into account the significance of the indicators.

table 2

Assessment of the competitiveness of the enterprise "Triumph"

So, according to the results of the analysis of the competitiveness of the enterprise, it was revealed that among the competitors the enterprise takes the second place.

Assessment of the significance of service competitiveness indicators.

Fig2. Significance of indicators; consumer preferences.

Thus, the preferred indicators of the competitiveness of the service are the accuracy of work and the safety of materials.

Table 3

Service competitiveness

So, according to the results of the analysis of the competitiveness of the service, it was revealed that among the competitors the enterprise takes the 1st place. The leading positions of the competitiveness of the service are indicators of accuracy and safety. The leading indicators of the company's competitiveness are the convenience of location, cleanliness and comfort.

Assessment of competitiveness allows you to analyze the capabilities of the enterprise: to predict the potential level of production volume and profitability of production.

1.2. Identification and assessment of the problem situation

1.2.1. Identification, formulation of problems and formation of a catalog of problems.

Table 4

Analysis of the external environment of the enterprise

Analysis of marketing, financial and production problems of the enterprise.

Table 5

Analysis of the organization of marketing in the enterprise

Table 6

The financial analysis

Table 7

Analysis of production problems

After analyzing the external and internal environment of the organization, it can be noted that the company "Triumph" is one of the leading enterprises in the market. The company constantly monitors the service market, knows well the cost structure of costs and maintains constant cost accounting. Weaknesses include possible changes in demand for the service. Here, the weak link is the high price of the goods, which is due to the low range of services and unrealized profits of the enterprise.

Based on this, you can create a catalog of problems.

Table 8

Problem catalog

1.2.2. Analysis of the problem situation.

Checking if the problem exists.

Figure 3. Dynamics of production profitability

There is a negative trend - a high probability that the profitability of production will fall. The fall will be caused by its integral components:

Figure 4. Dynamics of demand volume

So, the main problem that needs to be addressed is the likely decrease in demand, as well as unrealized opportunities for using profits. A decrease in the volume of demand will cause a decrease in the vital indicators of the enterprise: profits, profitability of production.

It is necessary to solve the problem in the near future: before the decrease in the efficiency of the enterprise.

The solution to the problem is quite real - there are tools to influence demand.

1.2.3. Establishing the causes of the problem situation.

So, the effective indicator that characterizes the effectiveness of the decision is profitability and the amount of income.

the amount of income.

Figure 5. Ishikawa Diagram

Analyzing the problematic situation, it is possible to formulate its causes: fluctuations in the volume of demand in the hairdressing services market, a poor range of services, low efficiency of the marketing policy, unrealized opportunities for the company.

1.3 Formation of goals, criteria and restrictions.

1.3.1. Formation of goals.

Increasing the company's income by 2 times within 3 years while maintaining the level of profitability.

1.3.2 Formation of criteria.

Increasing the company's income by 2 times within 3 years, subject to maintaining the level of profitability

Financial and economic

Marketing

Profitability 0.33

Market share

Sales volume 3169

Change of priorities in the market

Profit 3244834.4

Figure 6. Goals and criteria for enterprise management

So, to achieve the goal, it is necessary to achieve the following indicators:

Profit 3244834.4 rubles per year

Sales volume 3169 per year

Revenue 11047134 r. In year

Profitability 0.33

1.3.3 Formation of restrictions.

Available resources: profit remaining at the disposal of the enterprise in the amount of 1622417.2 rubles per year

External environment resources: deposit

The best option is 11% per annum (Bank of Moscow)

1622417.2 profits - 35000 (for own needs) * 12 months = 1202417.2

Table 9

Enterprise resources (bank account)

Table 10

Resource allocation

Bank loan – t loan (20% per year Renaissance loan)

Population 1003844 people

Number of potential buyers 10,000 people

The population of this region is 74106 people

1.4. Building a decision tree.

Fig 7. Decision tree

2. Theoretical part.

2.1. Application of the multidimensional scaling method in the development of management decisions.

The main task of the multidimensional scaling method is precisely to reduce the number of factors that must be taken into account when analyzing and evaluating the expected changes in the situation as a result of certain managerial decisions.

Reducing the number of factors that need to be taken into account in a situational analysis is sometimes referred to as downsizing.

An equally important task solved by the multidimensional scaling method, along with a reduction in dimension, is also a meaningful interpretation of the resulting set of factors.

The initial information for multidimensional scaling can be assessments of the similarity and difference by specialists of various options for the development of the situation. Various estimates of similarity and differences are determined by different values ​​of indicators characterizing the state of the situation. Initial

is also a preliminary set of particular criteria, although their number, as a rule, exceeds the number of really important criteria.

Based on the mathematical processing of the initial information, those factors that really influence the development of the situation are established. The multidimensional scaling method got its name because, as a result of the transformation of the initial information, the main indicators characterizing the change in the situation are estimated by a relatively small number of factors, measured in a relatively small number of scales. Each factor identified in this way receives a meaningful interpretation from the specialists involved in the situational analysis. The use of the multidimensional scaling method helps to establish the most significant factors that determine the development of the situation. Another important point after establishing the factors that determine the development of the situation is the study of the mechanisms that determine this development, the interaction of factors, the impact of sometimes oppositely oriented forces, competition, etc.

Modeling the situation can help to better understand the situation and the dynamics of its development. A well-developed model allows a more complete analysis of the situation, understanding the driving forces of its development, the role of certain factors. The first example of modeling a situation is to obtain dependencies of indicators characterizing the development of the situation, when the values ​​of the most significant factors change.

So, for example, if one of the main indicators characterizing the economic activity of an enterprise is profit (P), and the main factors affecting the profit received by the enterprise are: competitiveness of products (K), production volume (O), cost of products (С), the current demand for products in the sales markets (Сп) and the type of dependence is established

P \u003d K1 * K + K2 * O + K3 * C + K4 * Sp

where K1, K2, K3, K4 are coefficients that characterize the comparative weight of the established factors, then we can calculate the expected value of profit for a particular value of the factors on which it depends.

The timing of the forecasting period largely depends on the nature of the organization's activities. But with a stable economy, this can be a fairly reliable forecast for 5 years. The forecast, developed using custom-built models, may include key financial and operational indicators. It allows you to correctly assess the expected development of the situation and make decisions leading to the goal. If the economy is unstable, then models that can be used to make short-term forecasts for the immediate planning period are more useful. In organizations that have managed to create adequate and reliable models for analyzing situations, their use allows management to really manage the development of situations, to consciously choose one or another direction of development.

2.2.Factor analysis in making managerial decisions.

Factor analysis is based on the assumption that, on the basis of statistical data, an analytical dependence can be obtained, reflecting the degree of influence of factors and changes in their values ​​on planned or actual indicators characterizing the situation.

Factor analysis solves the problem of determining: the factors necessary to identify all significant dependencies that affect the development of the situation; coefficients (sometimes called loads) characterizing

the influence of each of the identified factors on indicators reflecting the state and development of the situation.

The application of the factor analysis method allows, based on the processing of statistical information, to classify factors into essential and non-essential, main and non-main, internal and external.

Based on the results of processing statistical data, the need can be established and the factors are detailed, or, conversely, the need can be established and the factors can be aggregated.

The coefficients of influence of each of the selected factors calculated on the basis of data processing make it possible, on the one hand, to determine the ranking of factors by importance, i.e., arrange the factors in descending order of their importance, and on the other hand, obtain a formula for calculating the expected

values ​​of indicators characterizing the situation, with one or another change in the values ​​of factors.

The results obtained using factor analysis make it possible to more reasonably assess the expected changes in the situation with certain expected changes in factors due to emerging trends or managerial influences, the expediency of which is established in the process of using situational analysis technologies.

There are the following main stages of factor analysis:

1. Setting the goal of the analysis.

2. Selection of factors that determine the studied performance indicators.

3. Classification and systematization of factors in order to provide an integrated and systematic approach to the study of their impact on the results of economic activity.

4. Determining the form of the relationship between the factors and the performance indicator.

5. Modeling the relationship between performance and factor indicators.

6. Calculation of the influence of factors and assessment of the role of each of them in changing the value of the effective indicator.

7. Working with the factor model (its practical use for managing economic processes).

2.3. Method "Efficiency-Costs"

Cost-Efficiency and Cost-Profit Methods

When solving evaluation problems, decision makers have to face the need to compare sometimes opposite goals. Among the most common search methods compromise solutions two can be distinguished: “cost-effectiveness” and “cost-profit”

Avdoshina Zoya Alexandrovna Senior Lecturer, Department of Sociology, Political Science and Management, Kazan State Technical University, Associate Professor, Department of Management, Russian International Academy of Tourism (Kazan Branch)

1. Concept, development process and features of management decisions

1.1. The concept and process of developing a management decision

A managerial decision is a natural result of the manager's activity and is implemented in the form of a directive purposeful impact on the object of management.

Management decision- an act of purposeful change in the situation, solving the problem, a variant of influencing the system and the processes occurring in it. Management decisions involve management actions leading to the resolution of the contradiction and change the situation. Any decision is based on the analysis of the data characterizing the situation, the definition of goals and objectives, and contains a program, an algorithm of actions for the implementation of measures. Management decisions are actually the main result of the activities of managers at any level of the hierarchical ladder. So, for example, heads of organizations and leading top managers can decide to expand the organization, enter new markets, change directions financial flows organizations. These are the most complex strategic decisions, which are made with a great deal of caution and include the analysis of a number of factors, modeling various scenarios for the development of the situation, forecasting accurate quantitative results: profit, gross proceeds from sales, market share, market development rates, etc. In the decision-making process of this level, it is required to plan activities, which may include changing the structure, assortment policy, type of activity of the organization. Decisions can be made at the level of the director, head of a workshop or department, foreman.

Depending on the level of management, the degree of responsibility and the consequences of the decisions taken change. So, some managers have the authority to make decisions on financial, personnel issues, problems of product quality (services). For example, the head of an organization may decide to purchase new equipment, change the wage system, and ensure quality. The head of the sales department makes decisions on concluding sales contracts, conducting promotions within the allocated budget, etc.

In the process of developing solutions, managers analyze information, communicate with heads of other levels of management, with direct executors of events, customers, think over scenarios for the development of the situation, hold business meetings, and choose the best alternative.

Management Decision Making Process consists of a number successive stages(See: fig. 1.).

At the first stage, a problem arises that must be resolved in a timely manner, otherwise a situation of imbalance in the system may arise. Thus, a decrease in the competitiveness of an organization in the market will lead to a decrease in demand for its goods or services. In the future, this may mean a loss of profit, and even the emergence of a situation of insolvency of the organization, actual bankruptcy.

In an environment where an organization is thriving, profitable, decisions are required, such as expanding operations, buying a business in another area, diversifying, investing in capital construction etc. Such decisions require thoughtful actions of managers, accurate diagnosing of the state of the system.

We pass to the 2nd stage of making a managerial decision. In this case, the manager is faced with the need to analyze documents: financial statements, sales dynamics, contracts, data on the advantages of competing firms.

Rice. 1. Stages of the decision-making process

The manager studies communication channels and information coming to him from various sources: from employees of the organization, customers, competitors; sees himself in this information field, watches people who can help him make the right effective decision.

At the third stage, the managerial decision is made individually by the leader or jointly with the group, for example, at a business meeting. Also, the manager can use the opinion of competent specialists, experts in the chosen field of activity, to make a decision. Can discuss the issue with them, get their informed opinion, and then decide on the next steps. Thus, a financial or marketing audit (assessment) of activities is in high demand, which can help the manager make the best decision with the least losses for the organization.

And, finally, stage 4 involves the adoption of a decision, which is recorded in administrative documents: orders, instructions, terms of reference, various types of plans; and is also reflected in regulatory sources, enterprise standards, general provisions, charter, internal regulations and rules of the organization. It is important not only to make a timely decision, but also to control the implementation of activities carried out in accordance with the adopted official documents, to motivate the personnel involved in the implementation of these activities.

Let us designate the main concepts related to the adoption of a managerial decision.

Control- targeted impact on the system and processes that are designed to unite the efforts of employees to achieve specific goals of the organization.

Management Process— a set of time-sequential operations, activities that make up the impact of the control system on the control object (organization).

Control system- a set of interrelated elements, a method of implementing control technology, involving the impact on the object in order to change its state and process characteristics.

Management Goal- an ideal image of the desired, necessary and possible state of the system, determined by a number of quantitative and qualitative indicators.

Situation- the state of the controlled system, estimated relative to the goal or the initial, given parameters.

Problem- a contradiction, a mismatch in the system, which can bring it out of balance and threaten its viability in the environment.

Information- a reflection in the mind of a person of the reality surrounding him, a set of information about the state of the controlled system.

Organization of the development of a management decision- streamlining the activities of individual departments and individual employees in the process of developing a solution. The organization is carried out by means of regulations, standards, organizational requirements, instructions, delegation of rights and responsibilities.

Management decision development technology- a variant of the sequence of operations for developing a solution, selected according to the criteria for the rationality of their implementation, the use of special equipment, equipment, personnel qualifications, conditions for the implementation of measures.

Management decision methodology— logical organization of activities for the development of management decisions. It includes the formulation of the management goal, the choice of methods for developing solutions, criteria for evaluating options, drawing up an algorithm for performing decision development operations. The general methodological approaches used to analyze the methodology of a managerial decision can be considered: rationalistic, behavioral, systemic, situational, process, cybernetic, and synergetic.

The process of making a managerial decision consists of successive stages, such as: the emergence of a problem, the diagnosis of the state of processes in an organization, the development of a solution, and control over the implementation of planned activities. All these stages are necessary steps on the way to effective management. Managers are required not only to know management theory, but also to master the methods: information analysis, organization of work in a group to make joint decisions with colleagues.

Methods for developing management decisions- these are the methods and techniques for performing the operations necessary in the process of their adoption. These include ways of analyzing, processing information, choosing options for action, etc.

Any organization, starting from the moment of its inception, faces a number of problems that can provoke dangerous situation accompanied by a sharp deterioration in performance indicators: liquidity, solvency, profitability, turnover working capital, financial stability. Market forms of management in conditions of fierce competition lead to the insolvency of individual business entities or their temporary insolvency. The problem provides information, "the key to thinking." It is required to make a decision that can change the situation, improve the state of the organization.

Management theory has a well-established set of concepts, categories and methods for a comprehensive assessment of production and economic activities, effective organization decision-making process at all levels of management. System analysis allows you to identify the feasibility of creating or improving an organization, to determine which class of complexity it belongs to, to identify the most effective methods of scientific organization of labor. In order to identify the causes of deterioration in the parameters of the organization's activities, problems are diagnosed.

Management Diagnostics is a set of methods aimed at identifying problems, weak bottlenecks in the management system, which are the causes of the unfavorable state of processes in the organization. Diagnostics can be understood as an assessment of the company's activities in terms of obtaining a general managerial effect and determining the deviations of the existing system parameters from the originally set ones, assessing the organization's functioning in a mobile, changing external environment.

Management decisions should be developed by managers at the scientific level of management, using the whole range of methods of analysis, diagnostics, planning, modeling and forecasting. An effective manager is a competent specialist who knows how to make decisions in a timely manner, direct and motivate staff for their implementation, plan the resource base, implement effective behavior models, and choose an adequate leadership style.

1.2. Types of management decisions: criteria, advantages and disadvantages

In the practice of organizations, a huge number of decisions are made daily. There was a breakdown of office equipment. The head of the department decides on the repair. Increased staff turnover. The head of the personnel development department decides to introduce a new employee support system, including a social package and a flexible bonus system. A new competitor has appeared and the head of the marketing service is forced to adjust the pricing policy. There are many such examples. There are several types of decisions in control theory.

1) Typology according to the degree of participation of managers of different levels and specialists:

• collegiate (expert and as agreed);
• collective (democratic);
• individual (solitary).

Collegial decision is a decision made by a group of managers and specialists.

As a rule, decisions are made by the head of the organization in agreement with the leading top managers and specialists, collectively. This is what happens in most companies. The head delegates parallel powers or uses the method of mandatory approval, which is written in the administrative documents: as “agreed”. With mandatory approvals, the responsibility for making significant decisions is partially assigned to the managers who assume such powers. Parallel powers increase the responsibility and rights of managers, and the decision becomes collective. For example, many companies use parallel powers to control financial expenditures, and in the case major purchases two or three executive signatures are required.

Collegiate decisions are usually made at business meetings and during the work of commissions by leading managers and specialists. At such meetings, there is already a known balance of power, which significantly affects the result of management, the decision. Thus, the alignment of forces may be such that one or two leaders may have priority in making a decision, although formally the decision is made collectively. This is a lack of collegial decisions. Therefore, leaders turn to experts who can help them make important decisions. Such decisions are made if a group of specialists is involved: external auditors or employees of the headquarters services of the organization. For example, to resolve a controversial issue, the manager may involve legal service, and to develop a strategic plan to use the services of a group of analysts. An expert commission may be formed with the involvement of external experts in the field of quality or financial audit.

Modern management theory offers methods and techniques that a leader can use to optimize the work of a small group and increase the effectiveness of decisions made.

Collective (democratic) decisions- these are decisions made by the majority of the employees of the organization, jointly by the labor collective or a small group. Unlike collegial decisions, democratic decisions are a vivid expression of the will of the majority of members of the labor collective, small or large. Such decisions are made in the course of a secret ballot, using methods of expert assessments, for example, nominal group technology, Japanese “ringi” methods. The use of such methods is possible with a high level of staff motivation, the use of a democratic leadership style, the development and transparency of the corporate culture.

Collective decisions are also made when significant problems and issues affecting all personnel are raised. For example, the election of a leader by competition, the introduction new system wages, etc.

Individual management solutions These are decisions that are made by the leader alone. In small business organizations, a small number of management levels, a high degree of risk of losing competitive status. Such an organization is led by an entrepreneur who bears full responsibility for its further functioning in unstable market conditions. The entrepreneur is afraid to delegate authority on financial and other significant issues to his subordinates and makes decisions on his own. The positive aspect of an individual solution is its creative, extraordinary character.

The shortcomings of individual decisions are manifested when they acquire an authoritarian character. The head usurps power, single-handedly manages resources, determines the personnel policy of the organization and puts pressure on subordinates. Decisions made by the leader alone allow the organization to remain in the market for some time and be successful. However, in the future, the leadership style used by the leader slows down the development of the organization. The leader must be able to maneuver and be flexible, use the art of delegating decision-making authority to other people in the organization.

2) Typology by levels of planning and time of implementation of activities

• strategic
• tactical
• operational

Strategic Management Decisions- these are decisions that are made at the highest level of management for the long-term development of the organization. Such decisions are followed by the development of: a strategic plan, an organization's production program. Strategic decisions involve fundamental reorganizations in the organization: changing the direction of financial flows to product groups or target segments, transforming the structure, entering new regional markets, expanding or reducing activities, changing the assortment policy. Strategic management decisions are made at the level of directors, vice presidents of the company, deputy. directors, heads of production departments and workshops. In a small business, all responsibility for making strategic decisions is concentrated in the hands of the manager and his team.

Tactical Management Decisions- these are decisions that are made at the highest and middle levels of management for a year or a quarter and include the activities necessary for the implementation of annual or quarterly plans: sales, production or provision of services. Tactical goals specify the strategic goal and, accordingly, tactical decisions are necessary to achieve this goal. Tactical decisions may be related to thinking through new models of behavior in the market, changing pricing policy, organizing promotions, optimizing the work of professional teams, etc. Purchasing new equipment, introducing a system of discounts and benefits for profitable customers, introducing a system of bonuses and bonuses for the results achieved by staff, changing the pricing principle are examples of tactical decisions.

Operational management decisions- decisions made in the middle and lower echelons of management related to the organization of the work of direct executors, providing them with resources, materials, information. Purchasing materials, repairing office equipment, sending workers to specific areas to perform terms of reference, concluding contracts with consumers are examples of operational management decisions. Such decisions are made in the process of daily, hard work of the labor collective and require regular monitoring by the manager.

3) Typology according to the content of the management process

• social
• economic
• organizational
• technical.

Content typology, in contrast to those discussed above, reflects the essential characteristics of management decisions that have a certain focus and are associated with various aspects of activity. So, economic decisions associated with the management system, necessary for the growth of the economic efficiency of the organization, profitability, payback and liquidity of assets. How best to manage resources, make the enterprise profitable, increase profits - these and other questions will face the manager who makes economic decisions.

Social Solutions- these are decisions affecting the social structure of the organization, personnel, corporate culture, climate and common values. Social decisions can be related to the optimization of the work of personnel, improvement of the system of motivation and social support for employees, the image of the organization in society, and the implementation of the mission. Raising wages, introducing environmentally friendly equipment, improving sanitation, strengthening safety requirements, resolving conflict are examples of socially responsible decisions.

Organizational decisions- these are decisions related to management methods, ways to achieve goals. Organize workers to complete a task, redistribute functions and powers, hold a general meeting - these are examples of organizational decisions. Such decisions are an integral part of the management process.

Technical solutions are operational decisions that are necessary to ensure labor, production processes, supplies necessary resources, materials, information. Install software in a department, replace a broken machine, pay travel expenses, send a worker to an important production site, are examples of technical solutions.

So, management decisions are different in content, time parameters, planning levels, but all of them are an integral part of the management process. The effect of their implementation directly depends on the manager's ability to predict the situation, to foresee the consequences of decisions made, the ability to use not only their own potential, but, above all, the capabilities of the group and the team as a whole.

2. Human factor in making managerial decisions

2.1. The role of the manager in the process of developing managerial decisions

The human factor suggests that a person plays a key role in the complex process of developing managerial decisions. This is a leader, and a leading specialist, and an ordinary performer. The quality of decisions and the effectiveness of joint activities depend on the coordinated work of all employees.

The human factor in managerial decision-making includes:

1) Skillful delegation of authority.

2) Implementation of communications, availability feedback with staff and consumers.

3) Behavioral features of leaders, organizational culture.

4) Leadership style, attitude towards hired personnel and organization of joint work in order to develop management decisions.

5) Methods personnel work and a personnel management system.

6) Timely prevention of conflicts.

Delegation of authority, feedback from the staff, the manager's behavior model, attitude towards employees, communication style with the consumer, climate, organization culture, all these are factors of interaction between a person and processes in an organization. Particular importance is attached to the ability of managers, leaders to organize staff, to involve him in the process of developing solutions. Collegiate and collective decisions are more effective than individual ones, so the leader must skillfully direct the staff to achieve the goals of the organization and delegate authority to solve problems.

Delegation of authority- this is the transfer of rights and responsibilities from a higher manager to a lower one, from a line manager to a head of a headquarters structure, from a manager directly to a subordinate.

Skillful delegation of authority is an integral part of the process of making collective management decisions. If the manager does not delegate authority, then managerial decisions are made by him alone.

The classic management literature deals with Difficulties faced by leaders in delegating authority. Thus, Newman gives five reasons for the reluctance of leaders to delegate authority:

1) Misconception leader "I'll do it better." But if the manager does not allow subordinates to perform new tasks with additional powers, then they will not improve their skills.

2) Managers become so immersed in day-to-day work that they neglect the larger picture of activity. Unable to capture the long-term perspective of a series of jobs, they fail to fully grasp the significance of the distribution of work among subordinates.

3) Lack of trust in subordinates. If managers act as if they don't trust their subordinates, then the subordinates will actually work accordingly. They will lose initiative and feel the need to frequently ask if they are doing the right thing.

4) Fear of risk. Since managers are responsible for the work of a subordinate, they may be concerned that delegating a task may create problems for which they will have to be responsible.

5) Ineffective control mechanisms. Management will have reason to be concerned about delegating additional authority to subordinates.

Subordinates avoid responsibility and block the delegation process for six main reasons:

1) The subordinate finds it more convenient to ask the boss what to do than to solve the problem himself.

2) The subordinate is afraid of criticism for the mistakes made. Since greater responsibility increases the possibility of making a mistake, the subordinate avoids it.

3) The subordinate lacks the information and resources necessary to successfully complete the task.

4) The subordinate already more work than he can do, or he thinks he really is.

5) The subordinate lacks self-confidence.

6) The subordinate is not offered any positive incentives for additional responsibility.

The reasons for the unwillingness to delegate authority or, on the contrary, to take responsibility for themselves, lie in the peculiarities of the psychology of the personality of employees. Significant are: emotional interaction between members of the workforce, behavior patterns and forms of control over the execution of decisions chosen by managers, feedback from subordinates, motivation of employees to participate in the process of developing responsible decisions.

Only the leaders themselves can make the process of delegating authority and developing joint management decisions effective. The leader directs, stimulates, organizes, determines policy, forms the culture of the organization.

Behavioral features of leaders influence the style of their leadership, the chosen forms and methods of making managerial decisions.

Rice. 2. The personnel management system of a modern organization

Behavioral features of leaders include:

1) Methods of evaluation and control used by the manager.

2) Responding to the emergence of problems or critical situations in the organization.

3) An implemented role model that encourages employees to imitate.

4) Criteria for the allocation of organization resources.

5) Criteria by which the manager determines the level of remuneration and the status of the employee

6) The criteria that the manager uses when hiring, selecting, promoting, transferring and dismissing employees.

The leader's behavior model is fixed in the minds of subordinates through informal communication channels. Everyday information coming from the leader is actions, stories, jargon, symbols, symbolic actions. This is the main mechanism for fixing the foundations of culture.

The formation of culture by leaders occurs through informal channels of communication. But the leader acts formally, using managerial methods of working with personnel.

The personnel management system (See: Fig. 2.) should be formed in such a way that employees have the opportunity to learn, receive an objective assessment of their activities, move up the career ladder, have social guarantees and motivation to participate in important decision making. Has the meaning personnel policy, socio-psychological climate in the team, culture, the ability to implement a democratic leadership style.

In the management literature, there are mainly three main leadership styles that strongly influence the forms of managerial decision-making: authoritarian, liberal and democratic.

Authoritarian leadership style characterized by rigid centralization, the process of developing management decisions from one control center, pressure on subordinates, the use of manipulative strategies to influence personnel. This style is chosen by the leadership of highly bureaucratic structures or small business organizations with a significant concentration of power in the hands of one person - the entrepreneur.

Democratic leadership style characterized by a high degree of participation of the workforce or managers of middle, lower levels of management in making strategically important decisions. In the first case, we are talking about collective decisions, and in the second, collegial ones. The democratic style is used in decentralized organizations in which management is carried out by goals and results. Such organizations are characterized by: flexible, adaptive structures, high motivation and competence of the staff.

Liberal leadership style is characterized by a certain level of opportunities for employees to participate in managerial decision-making. However, the situation in the team can develop in different ways, sometimes unpredictably. A leader who uses a liberal style may withdraw from management. In this case, the organization is controlled by representatives of the "elite core", which receives unlimited access to power and resources. Clashes between different groups are possible, a sharp increase in conflicts in the team.

Leadership styles have a significant impact on the process of developing a management decision: the chosen forms of control, management methods (See: table 1.). Leadership styles are closely related to the structural construction of the organization, the general management system.

Studying the human factor in the development of managerial decisions, we note that the decisive role in this complex process belongs to the manager. The requirements for the professional competence of a manager include not only the necessary knowledge and skills, but also certain human properties of him as a person.

2.2. Social aspects of the development of management decisions in tourism organizations

The development of management decisions in tourism organizations has a certain specificity. The art of communication and action according to the situation are especially in demand here. Tourism organizations will experience an acute shortage of workers, qualified specialists in the field of tourism management and hotel business.

Concluding an agreement with a well-known tour operator, preparing a package of documents for a tourist, buying furniture and equipment, sending employees on a study tour, increasing advertising costs, creating your own website - all this examples of management decision-making in tourism. This field of activity requires special knowledge and skills from managers.

Requirements for the professional competence of managers in the field of tourism suggest:

1) Possession of the technology of sales of a tourist product.

2) Skills business communication and knowledge of customer psychology.

3) Knowledge of the basics of regional studies and the main directions of tourism.

4) Ability to work with documents and databases.

5) Knowledge legal framework tourism activities.

6) Fluency in Internet technologies, sales and booking skills online.

7) Use of positive behavior patterns.

Let us recall the basic concepts of tourism management that appear in legislative acts.

Tourism— temporary departures (travels) of citizens of the Russian Federation, foreign citizens and stateless persons (hereinafter referred to as citizens) from a permanent place of residence for recreational, educational, professional, business, sports, religious and other purposes without engaging in paid activities in the country (place) of temporary residence;

Tourist activity– tour operator and travel agency activities, as well as other travel organization activities;

Tourist- a citizen visiting the country (place) of temporary residence for health-improving, educational, professional, business, sports, religious and other purposes without engaging in paid activities for a period of 24 hours to 6 months in a row or spending at least one overnight stay;

tourism industry- a set of hotels and other accommodation facilities, means of transport, facilities Catering, objects and means of entertainment, objects of educational, business, recreational, sports and other purposes, organizations engaged in tour operator and travel agency activities, as well as organizations providing excursion services and services of guide-interpreters;

Tourist product– the right to a tour intended for sale to a tourist;

Tour operator activity- activities for the formation, promotion and sale of a tourist product, carried out on the basis of a license by a legal entity or an individual entrepreneur (hereinafter referred to as the tour operator);

Travel agency activity- activities to promote and sell a tourist product, carried out on the basis of a license by a legal entity or an individual entrepreneur (hereinafter referred to as a travel agent);

tourist voucher- a document confirming the transfer of the tourist product;

Tourist voucher- a document establishing the right of the tourist to the services included in the tour, and confirming the fact of their provision.

Note that travel agencies are, as a rule, small organizations with a limited staff. The success of such an organization depends on the ability of managers to respond in a timely manner to customer requests and the market situation.

Large tour operators promote tourism products to regional markets. They should care about the quality of tours and service.

Decisions that are made in tourism organizations depend on the type of tourism activity (tour operator, travel agency, etc.)

Management decisions made in the tour operator organization:

• conclusion of agreements with regional representatives;
• material support of the organization,
• conducting advertising campaigns and promotions;
• conclusion of contracts with individual clients;
• development of new directions of tourism activity;
• entering new markets;
• conclusion of contracts with foreign partners;
• creation of a reserve fund;
• creation of an electronic sales system and its improvement;
• creation of conditions for ensuring the safety of tourists, etc.

Management decisions made in a travel agency organization:

• conclusion of agreements with tour operators, owners of well-known brands,
• registration of a package of documents for a tourist;
• financial support of the company, design of premises and supply of office equipment;
• sending employees to training;
• creation of the organization's website and promotion to the market;
• use of the electronic booking system;
• organization of an effective system of work with clients (by phone and at a meeting);
• solution of unforeseen situations and problems.

A manager in the tourism business spends most of his time on communication and communication with the consumer, therefore, special attention should be paid to creating an adequate corporate culture with a high management context.

Culture is a set of traditions, norms, values, meanings, ideas, sign systems characteristic of the social community.

Organization culture, according to the definition of E. Shane, is a set of collective basic ideas acquired by a group in resolving the problems of adaptation to changes in the external environment and internal integration.

The constituent elements of organizational culture are:

• observed behavioral stereotypes in the interaction of people (language, customs, traditions);
• group norms (values, standards inherent in working groups);
• proclaimed values ​​(the principles and values ​​declared publicly to which the organization aspires);
• formal philosophy (general and ideological principles that will determine the actions of the group in relation to shareholders, employees, customers, intermediaries);
• rules of the game (rules of behavior at work, restrictions that a beginner needs to learn);
• climate (feelings determined by the physical composition of the group and the manner in which members interact);
• existing practical experience (methods and techniques that do not require written fixation);
• mindset and mental models (systems that determine perception, thinking and language, transmitted to group members at the stage of socialization);
• accepted meanings (instant understanding that occurs during communication);
• basic metaphors (ideas, feelings and images developed by the group for self-determination, are embodied in buildings, office structure and other material aspects, reflect the emotional and aesthetic reactions of group members).

Culture has properties universality, informality and stability. It covers all aspects of activity and is associated with traditions that repeat over a number of years.

Culture performs features: adaptation, internal integration, coordination of staff behavior, optimization of employee motivation and profiling the image of the organization.

Culture of tourism organizations characterized by a pronounced focus on consumer needs and includes:

1) A special culture of communication with customers (understanding, informativeness, decency)

2) Traditions and atmosphere of travel and recreation

3) Group norms of joint, conflict-free effective activity

4) Philosophy to meet the comprehensive needs of customers

5) Favorable socio-psychological climate

6) Skillful operational skills in working with office equipment and databases

7) Basic metaphors embodied in the design of the office, the design of the premises, focused on potential tourists (comfortable furniture; modern office equipment; souvenirs reminiscent of travel; booklets and magazines informing about vacation destinations, etc.)

8) Openness to the world and other cultures.

Social Aspects of Management Decision Making in the Tourist Business can be characterized as follows.

1) High demands are placed on the competence of managers, the growth of their initiative and responsibility

2) The role of communications is growing, it is necessary to have feedback from consumers

3) The behavioral characteristics of managers and organizational culture are characterized by a focus on consumers

4) Democratic style of leadership prevails, conflict-free and joint problem solving

5) HR methods are focused on continuous training and development of personnel

6) Achieving efficiency is possible subject to the creation of a special culture of the organization

So, the development of management decisions in tourism is an initiative, creative work, an innovative approach to work, goodwill and activity according to the situation.

3. Organization of the process of developing management decisions and monitoring the implementation of measures

3.1. Methods for developing management decisions

To make informed decisions, it is necessary to rely on the experience, knowledge and intuition of specialists. Collegiate and group decisions have significant advantages over individual decisions. Therefore, in management, considerable attention is paid to the issues of working in a group, team, as well as ways to develop joint solutions. In this case, the managers and specialists involved in the development of solutions can be considered as experts on the chosen problem. Methods of expert assessments involve organizing work with specialists, processing their opinions, expressed in quantitative and qualitative form, in order to prepare information for decision-making.

Rice. 3. An example of a causal tree for a tourism organization

Expert methods for developing management decisions- these are methods based on the analysis and averaging in various ways of opinions, judgments of expert experts on the issues under consideration. Often accompanied by the creation of special working groups of specialists, an expert commission. Managers who are responsible for making important decisions and are quite competent specialists can act as experts.

Expert evaluation methods: Delphi, round table, brainstorming, scenario method, weighted average method, business game, Japanese method"rings".

Delphi- one of the methods of expert forecasting, based on a consistent assessment by specialists of any proposed alternatives. It can be applied in the process of group decision making by choosing the best alternative. The results of expert assessments are entered in a table (See: table 5).

Consider how you can apply the Delphi method to make a management decision in a travel agency.

Let's say that a tourism organization has a problem of reducing its competitive status against the background of the emergence of new competitors with significant advantages (a well-known brand, low prices).

Purpose: to develop an optimal management decision through a group session and the use of expert assessment techniques.

Stage 1. The problem is discussed in a group of specialists, a causal relationship tree (problem tree) is built (See: Fig. 3)

Stage 2. Using the brainstorming method, 5-8 alternatives are determined, which are ways to solve the problem under consideration.

Stage 3. Based on the Delphi table (See Table 2), the most weighty alternatives are determined.

Method of weighted average criteria is effective for experts to evaluate a number of alternatives and options for loosely structured solutions.

A system of weighted criteria can be applied to evaluate product suppliers. At the first stage, the experts directly assess the selection criteria. Suppose the price for tour packages, bonuses for supply volumes, etc. All criteria are "weighted" in relation to the main criterion (See: Table 3). According to the selected weighted criteria, all possible solutions are evaluated. Suppose there are four tour operator firms: A, B, C, D. In fact, there can be much more of them. At this stage, a comparative assessment of each firm is made for each criterion (See: table 4).

At the last stage, the total weighting of the options is determined taking into account the different "weight" category of each criterion, i.e. the weights of the selection criteria are multiplied by the weighted options for each row (See: Table 3). The total weighted assessment shows the most adequate assessment of firms that supply tourism products.

Management decision modeling- this is the development of a solution in an abstract form, suggesting the possibility of change, operating with a large number of variables, analyzing the scenarios and situations associated with this solution. The main goal of management decision modeling is to choose the best option, taking into account the predictability of the situation. The advantage of managerial decision modeling as a method is that the manager can use all his potential: intelligence, intuition, management skills, rational foresight.

Functional-decompositional representation of the system in the form of an aggregate complements mathematical modeling methods. The general representation of the system is most conveniently used in the form mathematical model, for example, in the form of service contours or a vector model (See: Fig. 4).

Rice. 4. Representation of the system as an aggregate

The methods for developing management decisions discussed above make it possible to increase management efficiency, because in this case, a number of factors affecting the development of the organization are analyzed. Factors or conditions that may not be noticed by a single leader if he makes a decision, when using group and expert methods, are analyzed in a comprehensive, systematic way. Group forms of solution development are more efficient and reliable than individual methods.

4.2. Efficiency, control and quality of management decisions

Efficiency of management decisions- this is 1) a set of indicators indicating the achievement of the organization's goals, obtaining certain results in its activities; 2) the main result of the activities of managers to transform the management system and processes taking place in the organization.

The effectiveness of management decisions is determined by three main groups of performance indicators of the organization:

1) Indicators of economic efficiency:

• profit;
• revenues from sales;
• profitability;
• cost price;
• profitability;
• liquidity;
• management costs.

• the quality of the product or service;
• labor productivity;
• the ratio of growth rates of labor productivity and wages;
• payroll fund (PHOT);
• average salary;
• loss of working time per 1 employee (man-days);
• quality of personnel work (points or %).

• staff turnover (the ratio of the number of dismissed employees to the total number of staff),
• level labor discipline(the ratio of the number of cases of violation of labor and performance discipline to the total number of personnel),
• the ratio of management personnel, workers and employees,
• uniform workload of staff,
• labor participation rate (KTU) or contribution (KTV)
• socio-psychological climate in the team.

The quality of the management decision- a set of properties that a management decision has that meet, to one degree or another, the needs of a successful solution to the problem (timeliness, targeting, specificity, and other properties) (See: Fig. 5.)

Management decisions must be reliable, timely, purposeful, planned, effective.

Control over the execution of management decisions is a set of procedures and management techniques that are used to fix and adjust the activities performed.

Methods of control over the execution of management decisions.

1) Fixing the results of the activities carried out.

2) Analysis of reporting documentation.

3) Conversations and business meetings.

4) Correction of plans.

5) Analysis of performance indicators of departments, services, organization as a whole.

6) Motivation for participation in the development of solutions.

Rice. 5. Conditions and factors that determine the quality of management decisions

Control is an important component of the process of developing management decisions, it affects labor productivity, quality of products (services) and the effectiveness of decisions.

In modern theory, techniques and methods are used that make it possible to identify the causes of quality deterioration, to detect cause-and-effect relationships between a number of factors.

Ishikawa Cause and Effect Diagram is an expert method that first appeared in Japan and is used to identify the causes of process failures in the event that obvious violations are difficult to detect. Consider a cause-and-effect diagram using the example of a tourism organization (See: Fig. 6).

In tourism organizations, one often has to deal with hidden, not always obvious facts that worsen the quality of services.

For example, often in organizations, the manner of communication with the consumer does not meet the high standards of international service. Possible: inattention or, on the contrary, excessive pressure on the client. There may be inflexibility in communication. In travel companies, the problems of insufficient awareness of customers, non-fulfillment of the conditions of contractual relations, safety of tourists, etc. are relevant.

In this scheme, it is necessary to find causal relationships between the main indicator (the quality of services of the tourist organization), the main groups of factors of influence and the reasons for the decline in quality separately in each group. So, in the course of sequential analysis, we can discover hidden causes that negatively affect quality.

The weight of each indicator is calculated by expert way, i.e. it is determined how important this factor is for ensuring the quality of services of a tourist organization.

Management decisions made in tourism organizations can change the quality of services and services, improve, or vice versa, worsen it. An organization can become competitive, or, on the contrary, lose its advantages in the market. All this depends on the skills and ability of the manager to make timely, optimal decisions, as well as to choose the best style of managing the workforce.

Undoubtedly, the priorities of management decisions in the tourism business should be: quality, brand capital and long-term strategy.

Rice. 6. Example of an Ishikawa Tourism Organization Causal Diagram

4.3. Parameters of the effectiveness of management decisions in tourism organizations

Efficiency of management decisions in tourism organizations is determined by a set of indicators indicating the achievement of goals and the growth of the organization's competitiveness.

We single out the main groups of indicators of a successful tourism organization.

1) Indicators of the competitiveness of a tourism organization:

• market share;
• brand capital;
• the ability to use the best pricing strategy;
• the quality of the tourist product;
• wide choice of tourist products;
• service at a high level,
• the use of means of promoting tourism products, which can contribute to the growth of the company's image, increase the volume of sales, profitability of the organization;
• the ability to use resources that can make tourism products even more attractive to the target audience.

2) Indicators of quality and productivity of labor:

• staff competence;
• the staff is focused on work in this field of activity;
• set of moral and material motives staff activities as an advantage;
• payroll fund (PHOT);
• equipping workplaces with modern office equipment;
• continuous training of personnel;
• level of performing discipline;
• implementation of calendar plans and achievement of planned indicators.

3) Indicators of social efficiency:

• reduction in staff turnover;
• favorable socio-psychological climate in the team;
• organizational culture is consumer-oriented;
• a high level of corporativity (commitment to tourism activities, common goals of employees and organizations);
• ability to communicate with clients;
• maintaining a special environment for travel and recreation;
• skillful skills of personnel with data banks and the use of modern information systems.

So, the parameters of the effectiveness of management decisions in tourism organizations are the main result of the activities of managers. Managers develop timely, highly effective solutions and can provide consumers with high quality tourism products. A high-quality and safe tourist product is what the consumer wants to see.

Tourism Organization Quality Management System is a set of interrelated elements, the main purpose of which is to satisfy the needs of consumers, to provide them with high quality services and tourism products (See: Fig. 7.) . Quality is understood as a measure of customer satisfaction, as well as compliance with standards and regulatory documents.

Rice. 7. Quality management system of a tourism organization

In order to protect the rights and interests of tourists, licensing, standardization of tour operator and travel agency activities, as well as objects of the tourism industry, and certification of the tourist product are carried out.

The factors that determine the quality of a tourism product depend on the type of this product. Currently, a wide variety of programs and products are presented on the tourism industry market.

The main types of tourism products and tourism destinations:

• excursion and bus tours;
• river and sea cruises;
• extreme tourism;
• event tourism (festivals, public events, etc.);
• health tourism;
• domestic tourism (vacation in Russia);
• sports tourism;
• children's and youth recreation programs;
• winter and summer beach recreation programs;
• business tourism;
• individual tourism;
• inbound tourism (reception and service of foreign tourists);
• education abroad.

Tour quality is a set of indicators that expresses a measure of customer satisfaction, compliance with standards and regulatory requirements.

The quality of the tour is determined by a number of indicators.

1) Ensuring the rights of the tourist, his safety and fulfillment of contractual obligations.

In preparation for the trip, during its completion, including transit, the tourist has the right to:

• necessary and reliable information about the rules of entry into the country (place) of temporary stay and stay there, about the customs of the local population, about religious rites, monuments of nature, history, culture and other objects of tourist display;
• freedom of movement, free access to tourist resources, taking into account the restrictive measures adopted in the country (place) of temporary stay;
• ensuring personal safety, their consumer rights and the safety of their property, unhindered access to emergency medical care;
• compensation for losses and compensation for non-pecuniary damage in case of failure to comply with the terms of the contract for the retail purchase and sale of a tourist product (contract) by a tour operator or travel agent in the manner prescribed by the legislation of the Russian Federation;
• assistance of the authorities (local authorities) of the country (place) of temporary stay in obtaining legal and other types of emergency assistance;
• unhindered access to communications.

2) Quality of services included in the tour:

• the price of the tourist product and the procedure for its payment;
• the procedure for meeting, seeing off and accompanying a tourist;
• the minimum number of tourists in the group;
• travel insurance in case of sudden illness or accident;
• convenient location of the hotel (place) of rest;
• safety in the hotel (place) of the tourist's stay;
• cleanliness and comfort of the rooms;
• price per room;
• Additional services;
• restaurant service;
• the quality of the organization of excursions;
• organization of entertainment events;
• quality of health centers services;
• the availability of exercise equipment and sports equipment;
• proximity (remoteness) from desirable natural or artificially created objects (sea, nature reserves, swimming pools, amusement parks, etc.);
• the attitude of the hotel staff;
• implementation of the schedule of excursions and events;
• the quality of the guide (translator) services;
• holiday contingent.

The quality of the tour is determined by a number of indicators that require careful analysis, market research and consumer requests. The tourism manager may face challenges and circumstances that are difficult to predict and overcome. Environmental disasters, tsunamis, floods, non-departure flights, theft, attacks on tourists and other facts that travel agency employees may encounter. The tourist expects to get new pleasant impressions during the holiday. He moves from one country to another, from his region to a completely different place of residence in terms of natural and cultural characteristics. Accordingly, negative factors, poor quality of service, flight delays, etc. may encourage him to continue to use the services of another travel company. A tourism organization must fulfill all its obligations, anticipate the wishes of tourists and take care of the high quality of their service. The effectiveness of the development of management decisions in tourism organizations is determined, first of all, by the full satisfaction of consumer needs.

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Consider the decision-making process for a particular organization.

The head of the travel company "Globus" faced the question of choosing the main mode of transport for tourist services. Suggested options: rail, road, air.

Let's evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the above transport based on the selection criteria (Table 1):

• - speed and convenience;
• - number of flights per day;
• - reliability;
• - carrying capacity;
• - number of geographic points served;
• - price.

Table 1. Evaluation of options for choosing a mode of transport for tourism services.

(1 - good, 2 - satisfactory, 3 - weak)

After analyzing all the factors of the proposed modes of transport, the company's management came to the conclusion that the most acceptable mode of transport for tourist services within the framework of this company is automobile.

Conclusion

A decision is a choice of an alternative. The need for decision-making is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity, it occurs at all stages of the management process and is part of any management function. Decision-making (management) in organizations has a number of differences from the choice of an individual, as it is not an individual, but a group process. The nature of the decisions made is greatly influenced by the degree of completeness and reliable information that the manager has. Depending on this, decisions can be made under conditions of certainty (deterministic decisions) and risk or uncertainty (probabilistic decisions). The complex nature of the problems of modern management requires a comprehensive, comprehensive analysis of them, i.e. participation of a group of managers and specialists, which leads to the expansion of collegial forms of decision-making. Decision-making is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that has a certain duration and structure. The decision-making process is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, choosing the best one and implementing it.

Improving the process of making managerial decisions and, accordingly, improving the quality of decisions made is achieved through the use of a scientific approach, models and methods of decision making. A model is a representation of a system, idea, or object. The manager needs to use models because of the complexity of organizations, the inability to conduct experiments in the real world, the need to look into the future. Main types of models: physical, analog and mathematical (symbolic). A decision tree allows you to represent a problem schematically and compare possible alternatives visually. The method must be used in relation to difficult situations, when the result of the decision made affects the subsequent ones.

A serious problem related to the effectiveness of the organization is also the problem of implementing the decisions made. Up to a third of all management decisions do not achieve their goals due to a low performance culture. In our and foreign countries, sociologists belonging to the most diverse schools pay close attention to improving performance discipline, including ordinary employees in the development of solutions, motivating such activities, cultivating "company patriotism", and stimulating self-government.

In addition to problem solving, the leader must be prepared for favorable situations and it is better to share the decision-making procedure with subordinates than to do everything alone.

Management decisions in the organization: concept and essence

In the course of the work of the organization there are always a number of problems that need to be addressed. Top management bodies are involved in decision-making.

Definition 1

Making a decision is not easy, it requires certain skills, experience and knowledge from the head of the organization. It is believed that the decision-making process is one of the most responsible in the organization, since the efficiency of the enterprise depends on it.

Each person makes several decisions during the day, from where to drink coffee for lunch, to which country to go on vacation. But there is a significant difference between ordinary decisions and managerial ones.

A leader, like any other person, makes many decisions a day, personal and work, so work management decisions are responsibility, risk and work.

The quality of the decision made largely determines the course of the organization's activities, the right decisions make the company develop, the wrong decisions slow down and worsen the work of the enterprise.

Stages of making a managerial decision

The process of making a managerial decision includes several stages:

• goal definition;
• consideration of the problem;
• calculation and justification of a decision and analysis of possible consequences;
• exploring several options for solving a problem;
• choosing an appropriate solution to the problem;
• making a management decision;
• announcement of the decision to the performers;
• control over the implementation of the decision.

Examples of management decisions

Example 1

Over the past three years, the organization has seen a negative downward trend in profits. Analysts argue that this is due to the fact that the company's sales are declining, the product on the market is losing competitiveness, costs are rising, and there is a need to dismiss part of the staff in order to reduce the company's costs.

In this situation:

• The purpose of the decision is to increase the profit of the enterprise.
• The problem is a negative downward trend in the profit indicator for three years.

Justification of the decision of analysts - if you dismiss part of the staff, then the profit will recover due to the reduction in costs. The head of the company must also understand that if the product loses its competitiveness in the market, then in the future the profit from the sale of such a product will only fall, and not only part of the staff, but, possibly, most of the staff will have to be fired, and the problem will not disappear.

Other options for solving the problem are to conduct marketing research on why the product is losing competitive properties, why sales are falling, what is wrong with the product, what the consumer wants to see from the product. The answers to these questions will allow the manager to find the right way to solve the root of the problem, avoiding mass layoffs.

Decision making - to allocate funds from the profit of the enterprise for marketing research, not to dismiss the staff, to look for the essence of the problem in another, to reorient production to produce a product in demand on the market that can satisfy