Shark of the oil business. Why is Sechin buying Bashneft? Rosneft buys Bashneft closed Sale of Bashneft to Rosneft

Rosneft must allocate no more than 330 billion rubles (5.29 billion US dollars at the current exchange rate) for the acquisition of a 50.0755% stake in PJSOC Bashneft, follows from a government directive to the board of directors of Rosneft. Interfax talks about it.

The directive also instructs the head of Rosneft to “sign a contract for the sale and purchase of shares in PJSOC Bashneft, ensuring the subsequent receipt of all relevant necessary corporate approvals and decisions of state bodies provided for by the current Russian legislation and the company’s charter by October 15, 2016” .

On October 1, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced the resumption of the process of privatization of the Bashkir oil company, and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the government did not intend to limit Rosneft's participation in the privatization of the state-owned stake in Bashneft.

On the same day, Shuvalov signed a directive to state representatives on the board of directors of Rosneft on the purchase of 50% of Bashneft, and the board of directors of Rosneft approved its participation in the privatization of the Bashkir oil company.

Earlier, the Ministry of Economic Development reported on 9 contenders for Bashneft. The market called Rosneft and LUKOIL the main ones, in addition to which Tatneft, Independent Oil and Gas Company (owned by the ex-head of Rosneft Eduard Khudainatov), ​​Russneft of businessman Mikhail Gutseriev, little-known Tatneftegaz ”, Russian Direct Investment Fund with foreign partners, Energy Fund of the former Minister of Energy Igor Yusufov, Antipinsky Oil Refinery. According to an independent assessment by Ernst & Young, the state-owned stake in Bashneft in August was estimated at between 297 billion and 315 billion rubles.

At the end of August, Bloomberg reported http://www. interfax. ru/business/525762 that the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, asked the government to allow the company he manages to acquire control in the Bashkir oil company for $5 billion at a premium to the market. By selling then 19.5% of Rosneft itself, the state will bail out $16 billion in total, thus covering half of the 2016 budget deficit, Sechin's arguments were reported by the agency.

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A 19.5% stake in Rosneft, like Bashneft, will be sold before the end of this year. Revenues from their sale in the amount of 1 trillion rubles have already been included in the budget for the current year. The sale of state assets will help maintain an acceptable level of federal treasury deficit of 3.7% of GDP.

The upcoming sale became known when the Ministry of Finance presented amendments to the budget, which surprised everyone with too high incomes - 13.37 trillion rubles. It was originally planned that they would be at least 0.5 - 1 trillion less than these figures. And if the structure of expenses in the document was disclosed, then the sources of income remained unclear.

The Ministry of Finance itself came up with clarifications, saying that it is planned to gain about 700 billion rubles from the sale of a 19.5% state stake in Rosneft. Let me remind you that earlier it was planned that they wanted to receive about 500 billion rubles for the package of state-owned companies. Then the government raised the estimate to 650 billion rubles. Now, according to Anton Siluanov, 700 billion is exactly 19.5% of the current capitalization of Rosneft, which is 3.59 trillion rubles.

The state is going to receive about another 300 billion through the sale of Bashneft. The market value of the controlling stake in the company (50.08%) is estimated at 240 billion rubles. But it is obvious that the Ministry of Finance expects to sell it with a premium to the market (+27.5%), hence the figure of 300 billion. Judging by the situation, we are talking about selling it to a strategic investor, which, according to the publication, could be Rosneft itself ". Analysts believe that the cost of Rosneft is somewhat overstated, but it is quite realistic to sell the state-owned stake for such a price. The cost of Bashneft's share, at the same time, seems to them quite justified.

Earlier it was reported that in addition to Rosneft, which is interested in this asset, since the acquisition of high-quality refineries will improve the situation with the depth of processing, Lukoil also claims to Bashneft. However, according to experts, it is Rosneft that can give the money that the state wants for the company. According to some reports, Lukoil has already abandoned the idea of ​​buying a stake in Bashneft.

“The proposed privatization cannot be called classical, because there are no foreign investors and there will not be any for obvious political reasons,” said Vladimir Razmustov, a political scientist, historian, and project manager at the International Financial and Economic Center CJSC. - Also, it will not include representatives of China and India, which were discussed earlier, but which now have their own difficulties. From this tangle of government headaches, it appears that the acquirer of state assets will be Rosneft itself. It will buy out the state-owned 19.5% stake and take part in the privatization of Bashneft.”

This is some kind of compromise that the government has found so far. In the short term, everything is going well. Another thing is that in the long term this plan raises questions among reasonable experts, since the government of Bashkiria is not going to give away a blocking stake of 25% of the shares. They expect to continue their influence on Bashneft, the third largest in Russia and the leader in terms of oil production growth.

On the other hand, Rosneft is still a private company, although for some reason we are used to considering it a state company. It is simply controlled through Rosneftegaz. Both there and there the name of Igor Sechin appears. That is, the presence of the state in this case is based on friendly relations. As long as there is Sechin, there is control over Rosneft,” the expert emphasizes.

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In mid-August, I wrote about the privatization of Bashneft: “The key contender for the asset, the head of LUKOIL, Vagit Alekperov, has repeatedly made it clear that he considers the market price of Bashneft too high. And the estimate of the Federal Property Management Agency far exceeded even these figures [the Government estimated it at more than 300 billion rubles]. Frankly, there is every reason to believe that the approval of the overestimation of Bashneft by the Federal Property Management Agency caused objections from Lukoil, the most important potential buyer, which influenced the failure of the sale. On the other hand, the second biggest bidder, state-owned Rosneft, likely had no problem paying the premium: the company had done so before, buying a stake in TNK-BP from Russian owners at a 40 percent premium to market value. Given the scale and impressive position of Rosneft in the Russian economy and the system of government, it would have no problem borrowing from state-owned banks for a deal, and the problem of growing debt burden, as we have seen before, does not really bother state manager Igor Sechin.

The day before yesterday comes the news: “The media learned about the possible purchase of Rosneft by Bashneft for 325 billion without bidding.” That is, everything came true 100%.

To be honest, I already wanted to joke on this topic that the authorities don’t need to look for any buyers and investors now at all during the “privatization” - I took it, gave Sechin a loan from the state bank at 0.5% per annum, and Rosneft itself will buy from the state your package for a trillion - that's the whole privatization for you.

Funny, right? However, once again it is confirmed that the realities of our today's life are worse than the worst joke: "During the privatization, Rosneft itself can buy back 19.5% of its own shares from Rosneftegaz," the Vedomosti newspaper reports on Wednesday, October 5 , citing a source familiar with the privatization scheme. Read on - as I explained some time ago, no buyers for the state-owned stake in Rosneft were found: “According to the interlocutor of the publication, the possibility of such a scheme is due to the fact that the budget“ needs money already now". At the same time, it is quite difficult to find an investor for such a package in a short time. The Chinese are cautious, looking back at the United States, the Indians have just bought large oil assets, they need to be digested, and European investors will not buy. "

Honestly, all this is just turning into some kind of circus. Just go to the circus. Bottom line: for all these purchases, Sechin will accumulate billions more debts, for which we will then have to pay with free oil supplies to the Chinese. The scheme has already been tested at TNK-BP, etc.

As Rosneft officially reports, the company acted within the framework of the order of the Russian government dated October 10, 2016, signed by D. Medvedev.

Then Rosneft received a lot of loans, including on account of future oil supplies.

At what price this oil was sold, Rosneft did not report then.

On October 13, 2016, Bashneft will host a meeting of the company's board of directors, which will consider a number of issues, including the early termination of A. Korsik's powers and the change of board.

It is assumed that the agenda will also include the issue of changing the company's board.

Rosneft has already prepared and announced its candidates:

N. Mincheva, Vice President for Legal Support of Rosneft Business;

Director of the personnel department of Rosneft A. Sudakov;

Vice President and Chief Geologist of Rosneft A. Lazeev;

1st Deputy Head of Oil and Oil Products Trading at Rosneft D. Nyrkov;

Director of the Department of Consolidated Planning and Reporting of Rosneft R. Latysh;

S. Lobachev.

As already known, A. Shishkin, who is currently vice president of Rosneft, will be appointed to the post of head of Bashneft.

Rejoice in the government, rejoice in Rosneft, only in Bashkiria, most likely mourning.

R. Khamitov really did not want to part with his state-owned stakes and hoped that the company after privatization would continue to actively participate in the socio-economic life of the region.

Well, a change in leadership entails a change in the direction of the company.

Of course, dividends will remain, but the question is - will, in fact, the transformed company allocate money for yard sports, participate in programs for the overhaul of residential buildings, and so on?

The question is rhetorical, and R. Khamitov is concerned about this today.

Sergei Zvenigorodsky, Head of Retail Sales, SOLID Management: In fact, the current scenario of the "privatization" of Bashneft and the possible subsequent purchase by Rosneft of its own shares from the state will either be the most senseless farce in the history of the economy of modern Russia, or the most complex multi-move that the world has ever seen. In fact, since the announcement of the government's plans to abandon the sale of Bashneft's state share using market instruments, the list of applicants who could actually acquire 50.08% of the shares has been reduced to just a few of the largest Russian companies. (Let me remind you that a strategic investor claiming to acquire a state share could only have a Russian “registration”, and funds for the purchase could not be raised using loans from state banks.) But now it is obvious that neither LUKOIL nor Tatneft are ready to offer for Bashneft as much as the state wants. It's no joke, independent estimates of the asset differ from the 330 billion rubles declared by the state. by almost 90 billion. At the same time, Rosneft has that kind of money, and the interest of the already largest player in the Russian oil market in further expansion, apparently, has not been exhausted by the purchase of TNK-BP. It is clear that the state has little choice now, budget holes are growing, the deficit is increasing, and it is becoming more and more difficult to sell Bashneft on its own terms.

By and large, plans for privatization for decades can be safely forgotten. The privatization of the state-owned stake in VTB has been postponed, Aeroflot, Sberbank, Sovcomflot have also been put on the back burner, and, finally, the reports that made a lot of noise that the state-owned stake in Rosneft will go to Rosneft itself have finally killed the dream that the budget will be replenished according to market laws.

For the Russian market, and for the economy, this is an unconditional negative. Firstly, privatization assumed that investments from outside would come into the economy, but in fact it turns out that the whole process of privatization comes down to shifting state money from one pocket to another, and, in principle, no new money can appear in the economy. Secondly, after the acquisition of Bashneft, Rosneft may not have enough free funds to buy itself from the state, which means that in full or in part 700 billion rubles. will be borrowed from state banks. That is, state-owned banks will give money to a state-owned company to buy out a state-owned block of shares from the state - a situation that perfectly characterizes the operation of the mechanisms of a market economy in a country where 70% of GDP is formed by the public sector. Thirdly, the growing Rosneft is less and less consistent with the principles of antimonopoly regulation. I think that this time the FAS will still have to approve the deal, no matter what, but in the future, the excessive growth of Rosneft will definitely create a threat of abuse of its position in the market, which can be called dominant even before the purchase of Bashneft.

Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst at Alpari: In our opinion, the replenishment of the revenue part of the budget is one of the main reasons. Rosneft offered the highest price for this asset. The rest of the contenders - LUKOIL, TAIF - stipulated in advance that they were interested in this asset, but not at any price. Previously, a number of government officials opposed this privatization option, since formally Rosneft is a state-owned company.

But Sechin managed to enlist the support of key officials - his strong position in the government affected. Igor Sechin is a supporter of the "nationalization" of the economy. At the moment, about 80% of the Russian economy is the public sector. The question is good or bad lies in the plane, which companies are more efficient - public or private. With the sale of Bashneft to Rosneft, of course, the very idea of ​​privatization as the sale of state property into private hands is called into question.

In our view, the likelihood that Rosneft will buy back its shares is low. Now for the company - the structuring of the deal on Bashneft and the further integration of this asset into its structure. Of course, the transaction will have a synergistic effect due to the optimization of oil flows and the integrated development of fields. Bashneft's refineries will complement Rosneft's production facilities well.

The deal to sell 19.5% of Rosneft is more complicated. Still, we are talking about one of the world's largest oil companies, while being under the sanctions of Western countries. Therefore, it is not easy for the seller and potential buyers (including Chinese and Indian investors) to agree on the price of the asset, consultations continue. Against this background, various exotic options arise.

At the moment, Rosneft has enough funds to close the deal - at the end of the second quarter it had $17 billion and no additional borrowing is required. In addition, Rosneft recently closed deals with Indian investors to sell shares in JSC Vankorneft and Taas-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha for $2 billion and $1.12 billion, respectively. Let me remind you that the sale of stakes in the Russkoye field on Yamal and Chaivo on the Sakhalin shelf to Indonesian and Chinese investors is under negotiation.

It is possible that funds for the purchase of Bashneft were accumulated in advance, so the company is ready for it and financial failures are not expected. Another question - perhaps it was worth directing the funds to reduce the debt burden, and not to consolidate the company?

Dmitry Lukashov, analyst at IFC Markets: I believe that the conditions for the sale of the state-owned stake in Bashneft can be called quite acceptable. The fact that Rosneft will become the buyer is positive for the Russian economy. The fact is that, even with low world oil prices, Bashneft earns about $200 million in net profit every quarter. Foreign investors would withdraw half of this amount abroad, and now this money will remain in our country. In my opinion, the government can be satisfied with the terms of the deal. Today, the market capitalization of Bashneft is 630 billion rubles. For 50.0755%, the state will receive 330 billion rubles, which, as we see, corresponds to market prices. Privatization has taken place, incomes have been received, everything is fine. To some extent, investors agree with this. The Moscow Exchange Index is growing for the third trading session in a row. The ruble exchange rate against the US dollar shows stability.

Bashneft does not produce much oil, but it does own a large amount of oil refining capacity. This is a key factor in the company's attractiveness and, in my opinion, will provide a good positive, synergistic effect from the merger with Rosneft. Ideally, Russia should reduce oil exports to a minimum and only export oil products. This is how, for example, the US oil industry is organized, which provides all of Latin America with gasoline and other fuels, making good money on it.

In my opinion, Rosneft's debts are not "colossal" at all. Now they seem to be quite acceptable. The fact is that in the last couple of years there has been a powerful drop in the yield of corporate debt instruments due to rate cuts in the US, EU, Japan and other countries. Rosneft's net debt to EBITDA ratio for 1H 2016 is 4.8. This is even slightly below the world average for the oil industry, which is 5.

Alexey Antonov, analyst at Alor Broker: In my opinion, the connection between the attempt to replenish the budget bins and the takeover of Bashneft by Rosneft is obvious. Based on past examples, no one had any illusions on this score. The only intrigue remained - whether LUKOIL would be able to negotiate acceptable terms for the purchase of the Bashneft stake, it turned out that no. Such privatization shows the increasing role of the state in the seemingly market mechanisms of the stock market. The stock market has received another heavyweight, which has long overtaken Gazprom in terms of market capitalization and growth prospects remain quite high.

The effect of privatization for the budget, in my opinion, will be neutral, because the state-owned company buys from the state. As for the impact of this deal on the company's debt load, $5 billion is not the kind of money that will fundamentally change the affairs of the industry, but the effect of this will be of a long-term nature. Rumors that Rosneft would sell foreign currency were dispelled by the company's press secretary, Mikhail Leontiev. In a sharp change in market conditions, namely in the light of falling oil prices, the state, of course, will not allow such a major player to go to the bottom, and, of course, will help - but in what way, will it be preferential loans, or something else , - time will show.

Alexander Shustov, General Director of MFI "Money Fanny": The actions of the government in this case are difficult to explain from a rational point of view. Postponing privatization and pursuing such an important deal in this way would be bad for the budget. After all, the point is not only in Bashneft alone, but in the course of the privatization process as a whole, in what will be the demand for those 19.5% of Rosneft from international investors. The loss of income from privatization will need to be compensated by other sources, and the resource for increasing the tax burden and devaluing the ruble has already been largely exhausted. Therefore, for the Russian market, the postponement of this transaction is negative, but when it happens, investors are more likely to react positively. The synergy effect from the merger of Rosneft and Bashneft for the industry will be approximately $2-3 billion. I believe that this transaction will really stir up the foreign exchange market, the demand for foreign currency will grow, and this will be negative for the ruble. Rosneft can be called one of the most experienced oil companies in Russia in terms of mergers and acquisitions. Since 2013, Rosneft has made 12 different acquisitions, including both upstream and downstream, a lot of things.

Alexey Kalachev, expert-analyst of FINAM JSC: The final scheme for the sale of Bashneft shares demonstrates at least two things. First, that the leadership of Rosneft has an almost unlimited administrative resource, which, however, is already known. And secondly, that apparently, yes, the state needs money here and now so much that for the sake of solving the tactical task of filling the budget, it is ready to sacrifice the strategic task of maintaining competition in the oil industry.

Rosneft offered the best price, and in a short time, such an offer turned out to be impossible to interrupt. The only real contender - LUKOIL - is not ready to pay that much, even at an auction, even without an auction. LUKOIL is still a private company and should be able to count.

For the market, this will no longer be a big negative, everyone has already understood that there will be no special influx of foreign investment - for foreign investors, the risks in the current foreign policy situation are too high, and there are few domestic ones with such volumes of free funds. The idea of ​​privatization degenerates into a redistribution of assets between near-state pockets and "pulling out" of them "stash" to fill the budget.

With the purchase of Bashneft, Rosneft at least receives the company's shares in the fields, which increases the estimate of its reserves. However, if Rosneft buys itself out, this will only be indirectly related to market valuations, and the buyout price under conditions of imitation of privatization will be announced based on the results of its agreement by the parties to the transaction.

I think that another difficult scheme for financing the transaction will be found in order to avoid unnecessary fluctuations in the foreign exchange market - with a delay, in installments, on the terms of mutual offsets. In the end, Rosneft will borrow from Rosneftegaz the necessary funds to buy back its 19.5% stake from it. Something in this style will come up.

Dmitry Zhuravlev, Director of the Institute of Regional Problems: I think that budget problems in the sale of Bashneft are decisive. The need to legally transfer part of Rosneft's money to the budget seems to be the only purpose of this deal.

The takeover of Bashneft is unlikely to produce a synergistic effect, since capitalization is determined by world stock exchanges, whose positions are influenced not by economic, but by political factors. But the deal still makes sense: to replenish the budget, you need to sell shares on the foreign market, and selling Rosneft shares is still easier than Bashneft.

Probably, the withdrawal of money from Rosneft through the purchase of Bashneft will worsen its position. But, firstly, the monopoly is not dying, and secondly, today the replenishment of the budget seems to the government a more important task than the development of the oil industry.

HIGH ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT HISTORY AND SYNERGY POTENTIAL - GROWTH OF CAPITALIZATION BY 260 BLN. RUB

INCREASE IN LIQUID HYDROCARBONS PRODUCTION BY 10%, OIL REFINING BY 20%

PJSC NK Rosneft, in accordance with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated October 10, 2016, completed corporate activities for the preparation and implementation of the acquisition of the state-owned stake in PJSC ANK Bashneft, which is 50.0755% of the company's authorized capital.

The Board of Directors of PJSC NK Rosneft unanimously approved the participation of Rosneft in the capital of PJSOC Bashneft. Based on the decision of the Board of Directors, Igor Sechin, Chief Executive Officer of Rosneft Oil Company, signed an agreement for the sale and purchase of 88,951,379 shares of PJSOC Bashneft at a price of RUB 329.69 billion.

On October 12, 2016, Rosneft fully fulfilled its obligations under the sale and purchase agreement with the transfer of 329.69 billion rubles to the account of the Federal Treasury. The deal to acquire a controlling stake in the company has been completed.

After the statement of the President of the Russian Federation on the synergistic effect of the acquisition and the publication of the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation, the shares of PJSC NK Rosneft grew by 7.5% with an increase in the company's capitalization by 260 billion rubles. Thus, the first phase of the integrated transaction for the sale of state-owned oil and gas assets included in the privatization program for 2016, which allows maximizing state budget revenues, has been successfully completed.

How the owner of Bashneft changed

In August 2005, when AFK Sistema became the owner of a blocking stake in Bashneft, its leaders emphasized that the investments were exclusively portfolio in nature, and the shares could be sold in a few years. In particular, Levan Vasadze, vice president of Sistema, pointed out that the company would like to receive 75% of Bashkir Capital, which also controlled Bashneft, and in 1.5-2 years the shares could be sold. Rosneft and Gazprom were then called one of the most likely contenders for the Bashkir oil assets, and the company itself confirmed its interest in them. In July 2006, the president of Rosneft, Sergei Bogdanchikov, said: "We are looking at the Bashkir refineries, they are even better than the assets of Yukos."

In June 2013, the Vedomosti newspaper, citing its own sources, announced the interest of Rosneft (then in the process of integrating with TNK-BP) to buy Bashneft. The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, called the purchase of Bashneft "interesting", but said that it was not discussed.

In July 2013, Sistema's major shareholder Vladimir Yevtushenkov told Bloomberg that Bashneft could indeed be sold to a strategic partner or its shares could be placed on the market.

In August 2013, TASS reported that Sistema plans to sell Bashneft before the end of the year and exit the oil business. The most likely buyer of the oil company, the sources of the agency called the Independent Oil and Gas Company (NOC), controlled by the ex-president of Rosneft, Eduard Khudainatov. However, the president of Bashneft, Alexander Korsik, said that Yevtushenkov was not thinking about selling the company. Sistema President Mikhail Shamolin told Vedomosti that the company intends to independently develop this asset and may hold an IPO in 2014-2015.

In March 2014, Bashneft bought the Tyumen oil company Burneftegaz, owned by Oleg Burlakov, for $1 billion, which was also claimed by Gazprom Neft and Rosneft.

In July 2014, the Basmanny Court of Moscow arrested a controlling stake in Bashneft owned by Sistema in a criminal case on the privatization of an oil company. The chairman of the board of directors and the main shareholder of Sistema, Vladimir Yevtushenkov, was summoned for interrogation, and he himself, which regards what is happening as a raider takeover.

In September 2014, Igor Sechin stated that Rosneft had never considered buying Bashneft's shares due to "skeletons in the closet" and the risks of privatizing this asset.

In October 2014, the Moscow Arbitration Court ruled that 81.67% of Bashneft's shares be reclaimed by the state, and in December Sistema transferred these shares to the Federal Property Management Agency.

In October 2015, Deputy Energy Minister Alexei Teksler, who headed the board of directors of Bashneft, stated that at that time there were no plans for an SPO, but "the management was tasked with always being ready for privatization." And in July 2016, Rosneft announced that it had received an offer from the government consultant VTB Capital to purchase a 50.1% stake in Bashneft during privatization.

The government has received two binding proposals from contenders for Bashneft, Ulyukayev said. “The best is higher than the value of the appraiser (from 297 billion to 315 billion rubles — RBC) - made only by PJSC NK Rosneft, - said Ulyukaev. According to him, the price offer of Rosneft turned out to be with a significant premium to the current market value of the shares: 20.6% to the closing price of trading on September 30 (the day the binding offer was received). The head of the Ministry of Economic Development did not name the second contender, noting only that his application suggested "a slightly lower price."

According to Ulyukaev, the sale of the state-owned stake in Rosneft will preserve the integrity of Bashneft's assets and support plans to privatize a 19.5% stake in Rosneft itself.

Earlier Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a deal with Rosneft, which offered the highest price for Bashneft shares, would be beneficial for the country's budget. “This is a neat privatization, bearing in mind the synergistic effect and getting the maximum benefit from the point of view of budgetary fiscal interests,” the head of state said at the Russia Calling! forum.

On October 10, it became known that Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed an order on the direct sale of Rosneft's 50.08% stake in Bashneft for 329.69 billion rubles. The government directive provided that state representatives on the board of directors of Rosneft should instruct the head of the company, Igor Sechin, to sign the sale and purchase agreement by October 15.