A typical business plan for a pharmaceutical enterprise (with a financial model). Typical business plan for a pharmaceutical enterprise (with a financial model) Importance of the Enterprise for the state and region

Every entrepreneur who decides to engage in the pharmaceutical business must clearly decide what it will be: a pharmacy kiosk, a full-fledged pharmacy or a chain of mini-markets. Some companies prefer to focus on drugs and medicines, others offer dietary supplements, nutrition for children and parapharmaceuticals. The fact is that the procedure for issuing a license involves some restrictions: the sale of prescription drugs is prohibited in stalls and kiosks.

How to open a pharmacy from scratch?

If you have a strong desire, you can organize a pharmaceutical business in 1-2 months. It doesn’t take much time to find premises and personnel; the main difficulty is obtaining a license. Of course, one of the most important criteria for the success of a trading business is the correct choice of location. The most profitable places are crowded places: bus stops, supermarkets, train stations. The qualifications of the staff are no less important. Quite often a person has absolutely no knowledge of medications; he simply says: “give me something for a cough.” A competent pharmacist will be able not only to select an effective remedy, but also to squeeze into the price range.

Before opening a pharmacy, you should analyze the prices for renting retail space in the area. In fact, rent will take up the lion's share of a business's expenses. The most profitable place in the city center: here is the largest flow of potential clients, however, the rent will be appropriate. It is also worth remembering that there is fairly high competition in the hot spots. The lease agreement is signed for 2-3 years.

On average, opening a pharmacy will cost 30-40 thousand dollars, the payback period is about 2 years.

Product range and equipment

The choice of drugs should be quite wide; today, imported drugs are in demand among buyers, but the demand for domestic ones also remains quite high. Firstly, domestic pharmaceuticals are cheaper, and secondly, people continue to buy their usual familiar medicines in the old fashioned way. For large cities, the normal monthly supply of medicines is considered to be 1,700-2,000 items, for regional centers – 1,000 items. During periods of exacerbation of colds, antipyretic drugs and vitamins are most in demand; in the summer, drugs for diseases of the gastrointestinal tract are most in demand. The pharmacy receives its main income from sales of promoted and advertised medicines.

The pharmacy’s assortment can be expanded with herbal preparations, tea, medicinal cosmetics, diapers, etc.

Do not miss:

There is a certain minimum without which it is simply impossible to obtain a license and open a pharmacy: refrigeration equipment, a cash register, a display case for drugs, a computer with a database of available drugs. If you have money and want to build not only a profitable but also customer-friendly business, it is advisable to install an air conditioner.

In modern conditions of extremely high competition, entrepreneurs often consider the option of organizing a chain of pharmacies. One small point can simply be “eaten up” by more powerful competitors. In addition, it is easier to promote the network on the market, conduct marketing research, and receive discounts from suppliers due to large volumes of purchases. So, if you are deciding how to open a pharmacy, consider the option of a large chain in the future.

A business plan for pharmaceutical production, which should ensure the uninterrupted production of a wide range of high-quality pharmaceutical products (finished medicines and substances) to meet the needs of all population groups in the region for medicines at affordable prices.

Summary

MEDIA-ROST LLC (hereinafter referred to as the Enterprise) was formed by Vladimir Alekseevich Glubokov and Eduard Konstantinovich Khristin (hereinafter referred to as the Project Initiators) in October 2001 to implement the idea of ​​​​creating a pharmaceutical production in Volgograd. The initiators of the project have experience in creating and managing Russian and joint ventures and have been doing business since 1987.

The idea of ​​creating a pharmaceutical production in the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation came to the project initiators in 1998. There are practically no pharmaceutical production facilities on the territory of the district, and medicines are mainly imported from abroad (64%) and from other regions of Russia.

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The created Enterprise must ensure the uninterrupted production of a wide range of high-quality pharmaceutical products (finished medicines and substances) to meet the needs of all population groups in the region for medicines at affordable prices, and reduce Russia’s dependence on the import of medicines and raw materials for their production. In terms of its capacity, the Enterprise should become the largest in the Southern Federal District and enter the top five largest pharmaceutical enterprises in Russia.

The actual pre-project work was started by the project initiators in 1998. Over the past period of time, support has been received from the administration of the Volgograd region and the Sovetsky district of Volgograd, and the issue of allocating a land plot for construction has been resolved. The initiators of the project received support from the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. To study the issues of creating production, the best specialists from the Volgograd branch of the International Academy of Investment and Construction Economics, as well as specialists from the pharmaceutical faculty of the Volgograd State Medical Academy, were involved. An in-depth marketing research of the pharmaceutical market in Russia and the Southern Federal District was carried out, and its own plan for the production and sales of finished medicines and substances was substantiated.

Investment costs for the project amount to $42 million. To receive half of the specified amount, MEDIA-ROST LLC intends to attract investors to participate in the project. The Company plans to receive the remaining part as government support in the form of a credit line or guarantees.

The presented materials and calculations were carried out by CJSC Investment Company "Contrast" on the basis of its own marketing research of the pharmaceutical market, a forecast for the development of the foreign economic environment for the duration of the project, an analysis of project risks, as well as taking into account the Company's planned construction and commissioning of the pharmaceutical plant and the expected sales volumes FPPs and substances.

Calculations were performed in the environment of the licensed software product Project Expert 7.01 in accordance with the standards of the international economic organization UNIDO.

Integral indicators of investment attractiveness

The period for calculating integral indicators is 90 months.

Goals and objectives

Mission of the Enterprise, main goals and objectives of the project

The mission of the Enterprise is to ensure the uninterrupted production of a wide range of high-quality pharmaceutical products to meet the needs of all groups of the region's population for medicines at affordable prices, to reduce Russia's dependence on the import of medications and to unlock the entrepreneurial, creative and spiritual potential of the owners and employees of the Enterprise.

Project goals:

• It is possible to quickly reach the planned capacity.
• Use of advanced technologies and modern equipment.
• Producing quality products and setting reasonable prices for them.
• Conquering and retaining a large part of the regional consumer market.
• Carrying out a well-thought-out production and sales policy that meets other goals of the Enterprise.
• Carrying out independent research work, timely updating of capacities and range of products.
• Launching our own developments into production, creating and maintaining original brands.
• Development and expansion of the Enterprise to an economically feasible scale.
• Entering foreign markets.
• Ensuring its owners receive income, creating conditions for unleashing the entrepreneurial, creative and spiritual potential of employees.

To achieve the strategic goals of the project, the Enterprise needs to solve the following main tasks:

After determining the circle of project participants and investors:

• Develop an architectural concept for the Enterprise.
• Develop a complete set of construction documentation.
• Ensure the construction of the Enterprise on schedule.
• Ensure selection, ordering and payment of main and auxiliary equipment.

After the start of production activities:

• Update the range of products.
• Develop a sales strategy for the Company's products.
• Conduct independent research work.
• Develop and implement your own brands.
• Conduct constant quality control of manufactured pharmaceutical drugs and substances for compliance with GMP requirements.

Successful solution of all the above tasks will help the Company cover up to 25% of the region’s needs for pharmaceutical drugs, and take a leading place among Russian manufacturers of drugs and substances with the prospect of entering the international market.

Project initiators

To implement the project, a new legal entity, MEDIA-ROST LLC, was registered.

The initiators of the project are the General Director of MEDIA-ROST LLC Vladimir Alekseevich Glubokov and the Deputy General Director Eduard Konstantinovich Khristin are the owners of the Enterprise.

The initiators of the project have experience in creating and managing Russian and joint ventures (JVs). So, in 1987, on the initiative and with the direct participation of V.A. Glubokov. A private enterprise specializing in the construction of urban engineering networks and communications was created. As a result of intensive business development, which was ensured by the energy of the director of the enterprise V.A. Glubokov, the annual volume of work increased from $20 thousand in 1987 to $5 million in 1994. For the period from 1990 to 1996, on the initiative and with the direct participation of V.A. Glubokov. 2 joint ventures were created, one of which is still in operation. It should be noted that Glubokov V.A. has a high level of theoretical and practical training in managing an enterprise in a crisis situation (certificate of an anti-crisis manager of category II), which allows him to timely anticipate the growth of negative trends and plan adequate actions to overcome them. From the very beginning of work on the project, the project initiators began forming a management team.

In the future, the Project Initiators plan to occupy management positions at the newly created Enterprise, which will most likely require new knowledge in the field of management of large industrial facilities. To comply with their positions, the project initiators are planning to undergo additional training during the construction period in one of the top manager training programs, which will allow them to systematize existing knowledge and experience from previous work, identify and close problem areas in advance, and establish useful contacts.

To date, the project initiators have invested about $110,000 of their own funds into the project. Appendix No. 4 to the business plan shows that in the pre-investment period, due to the work performed by the Project Initiators, the total risk of the project decreased from 28.39% to 20.63%. Thus, from the point of view of risk reduction, the cost of work already completed by the Project Initiators is estimated at $3.259 million.

Entrepreneurial idea

The entrepreneurial idea of ​​creating pharmaceutical production in the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation arose in 1998. The main initiator of the project and the author of the entrepreneurial idea is the head of MEDIA-ROST LLC Glubokov V.A.

The entrepreneurial idea of ​​the project is to make a profit by creating a modern high-tech pharmaceutical production in the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation, which fully meets the long-term needs of the state and the region.

The main features of the entrepreneurial project idea include:

• orientation towards the general public, which is achieved through the Company’s attractive pricing policy and a wide range of pharmaceutical products;
• focus on the production of import-substituting drugs, as a result of which Russia’s security increases and dependence on imported drugs decreases;
• the desire of the Project Initiators not only to produce finished dosage forms from purchased raw materials, but also to produce the active substance (substances) for the domestic Russian market;
• the use of flexible technological production schemes that allow you to quickly change the range of products in accordance with the emerging market conditions;
• compliance of the quality of manufactured pharmaceutical drugs and substances with GMP and ISO 9001 standards.

Pre-investment study of the project

For the period since 1998 the Enterprise:

• Support was received from the administration of the Volgograd region and the Sovetsky district of the city of Volgograd, at the federal level - support from the State Duma Committee of the Russian Federation on Credit Institutions and Financial Markets, as well as from the head of the department of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation.
• A decision was received from the municipal authorities to provide a plot of 10 hectares for the location of pharmaceutical production in the city of Volgograd.
• An in-depth marketing research of the pharmaceutical market of the Russian Federation and the Southern Federal District was carried out.
• Preliminary work has been carried out to obtain a government order for the Company’s products from the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.
• To study the issues of creating production, specialists from the International Academy of Investments and Construction Economics were brought in, including those working in the Volgograd branch.
• An analysis of companies with experience in building similar plants in Russia was carried out. A dialogue was established and negotiations were held with the Yugoslav company Hemofarm, which confirmed in writing its readiness to carry out design, construction, installation and commissioning work related to the creation of pharmaceutical production in the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation.

The importance of the Enterprise for the state and region

The state needs to develop domestic production of medicines to provide the country's population with high-quality and affordable pharmaceutical products in sufficient volume and range and to reduce dependence on imports. The scale of the Enterprise planned for creation goes beyond the regional framework, and will have a serious impact on the development of the entire pharmaceutical industry in Russia.

For the economy of the Southern Federal District, the creation of such an enterprise will be very significant. The initiators of the project are considering the issue of including the Enterprise in the development program of the Volgograd region. Let us indicate the main positive aspects of creating modern pharmaceutical production in the region:

• Large tax contributions to the regional budget. A significant reduction in the share of the region’s population’s spending on medicines due to the production of high-quality pharmaceutical products and lower prices for them and, as a result, expanding the possibility for citizens to use freed-up funds to meet other needs (balanced nutrition, education, sports, etc.).
• Providing medical institutions in the region with cheaper and higher quality medicines.
• Creation of new jobs.
• Strengthening scientific potential (development and implementation of the latest pharmaceutical technologies).

Marketing analysis

The full results of marketing research of the pharmaceutical market in Russia and the region under consideration are given in Appendices No. 1 and No. 2 to the business plan.

State of the domestic pharmaceutical market

The Russian pharmaceutical market is demonstrating high growth rates. In terms of volume, it is in second place after food, and according to leading Russian experts, at the beginning of 2002, the capacity of the Russian pharmaceutical market amounted to 3.5 billion US dollars.

In Russia, medicines are produced at 117 enterprises, with 70% of production coming from the 16 largest enterprises. 84% of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises have a non-state form of ownership, which cannot be found in any country in the world.

According to official statistics, there are currently about 7 thousand wholesalers in Russia (according to the Rospharm company, about 3 thousand), although, according to experts, 250-300 large wholesale companies are sufficient to meet the needs of the domestic market.

Russian medicines

Before the 1998 crisis, imported products faced virtually no serious competition from Russian manufacturers, filling gaps in their product range. However, after the crisis, many domestic pharmaceutical plants relied on the production of import-substituting drugs.

The range of import-substituting products now approaches two hundred items, and for many items, domestic production can satisfy all the needs of the Russian market. However, this has not yet had a significant impact on the ratio of imported and domestic drugs. The fact is that most foreign manufacturers focus on consumers with above-average incomes who can afford expensive medicines. In addition, the range of Russian manufacturers is still limited, and for entire therapeutic groups there is no competition with imports at all.

The diagram below shows data from the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Industry and Science of the Russian Federation on the volume of production of medicines by Russian manufacturers in the period 1996-2002. (forecast data for 2002):

According to experts, in the next 5 years (2002-2007) the production of anti-asthmatic, antihistamine, anti-tuberculosis drugs, plasma substitutes, as well as drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular, eye, psychoneurological diseases, diseases of the endocrine system, digestive organs, dysbacteriosis will increase . In the production of these drugs, domestic enterprises have still lagged behind foreign companies due to the lack of modern equipment for the production of pharmaceutical substances.

In 2002, leading Russian companies (Polypharm, Akrikhin, Kraspharma, Organika, Biosintez, Sintez, etc.) plan to modernize their production facilities, spending about 125 million US dollars for this, which will reduce the technological gap from foreign competitors and occupy a niche in the changed market.

Production of substances

The production of medicinal substances in Russia before the collapse of the USSR was a basic sub-sector of the medical industry: until 1992, domestic substances were the main export products of the industry to the former Soviet republics. With the transition to market relations, due to the high material and energy intensity of the production of substances, their production became unprofitable. In 1998, the range of substances produced was narrowed by 2.7 times compared to 1992 (to 100 items), production volume decreased 5 times and amounted to 3.5 thousand tons (19.8% compared to 1992). , and in 1999 it decreased to 3 thousand tons and amounted to only 17.2% of the base year level. The volume of production of antibiotic substances and vitamins is constantly decreasing (with the exception of a slight increase in their production in 1995 and 1997).

As a result of the constant increase in prices for raw materials and energy resources over the period from 1992 to 2001, medical industry enterprises were forced to significantly reduce production capacity for the production of substances. Thus, about 40% of production capacity was withdrawn. The industry average level of capacity utilization for the production of substances in 2000 was 18.5%, including substances for synthetic drugs - 14.7%, antibiotics - 24.3% and vitamins - 34%.

The rise in prices for material resources has led to a significant increase in the cost of substances, as a result of which prices for this type of product have become higher than world prices. Therefore, domestic manufacturers of finished dosage forms began to purchase imported substances as raw materials, significantly narrowing the sales market for Russian products. To bring prices for pharmaceutical substances to the world level, domestic enterprises need to reduce their production costs by at least 2 times, which is only possible by using new resource-saving and less energy-intensive technologies. However, given the current financial situation of enterprises in the industry, it is extremely difficult to modernize production.

And yet, despite the existing difficulties, in 2001 the production of high-tech medicinal substances was started for the first time on the Russian pharmaceutical market. The Farmavit group launched the Pharmsintez plant in the village of Kuzmolovo (Leningrad region) for the production of high-tech medicinal substances. This is the first enterprise of this kind in Russia. Domestic pharmaceutical enterprises, as a rule, produce inexpensive substances and prefer to reduce their share in production, since they are not nearly as profitable as finished drugs.

The Farmavit holding includes the companies Farmavit OJSC, ASGL - Research Laboratories, National Biotechnologies, and the Pharmsintez research and production company. The holding is a shareholder of several pharmaceutical plants - Biokhimik (Saransk), Biosintez (Penza), AKO Sintez (Kurgan). According to Pharmexpert Center for Research and Development, these factories account for about 20% of Russian production of finished medicines.

The plant was designed with the participation of leading foreign and Russian companies. The installation of unique technological equipment is currently being completed. The design capacity of the plant is up to 20 tons of substances per year. The area of ​​the occupied territory is 5 hectares.

At the first stage, it is planned to produce 10 types of chemical substances. In the future, it is planned to master the production of up to 50 types of substances.

The company was supposed to start operating at the end of December 1999, but the dates were postponed several times. Farmavit OJSC and Gazenergofinance CJSC acted as investors in the project. The project cost is $15 million. A third of the products will consist of original drugs developed by the Farmavit holding; the rest will be generics.

Pharmsintez will occupy a new niche for Russian companies. Part of the produced substances will be supplied to the countries of Southeast Asia and North Africa. The products of this enterprise will be 30% cheaper than imported analogues. The strategic partner in this project is the Hong Kong company Cathey World Investments, which provided Farmavit with an investment loan in the amount of $2.5 million. As pharmaceutical market experts note, no Russian enterprise produces high-tech substances yet. According to experts from the Pharmmedsbyt company, the cost of high-tech substances can be up to $5,000 per 1 kg. At the same time, substances produced by Russian enterprises usually cost from $2 to $10 per 1 kg. The only exception is the substance dicaine, which is produced by the Novokuznetsk plant "Organika" - it costs $1000 per 1 kg. If the substances produced by Pharmsintez are indeed a third cheaper than imported analogues, this may be of interest to drug manufacturers and affect the price of the final product.

Imported medicines

Despite the fact that the increase in the share of Russian pharmaceuticals in the domestic market became one of the most important trends in 2000-2001, imported finished medicinal products (FPPs) continue to occupy an unreasonably large place in it.

The diagram below shows the structure of the Russian drug market at the beginning of 2002 by manufacturer. The main competitors for domestic pharmaceutical companies are enterprises from the CIS countries, the Baltic countries, Eastern Europe, as well as India and Turkey. Among the competitors are such traditional Russian suppliers as Chinoin and Gedeon Richter (Hungary), KRKA (Slovenia), Zork, Zdravle (Yugoslavia), Ranbaxy Laboratories, Dr. Redd's Laboratories, Torrent (India). Together they fill about 70% of the Russian pharmaceutical market.

Since the beginning of the 90s, the main specialization of competing pharmaceutical plants has been the production of generics, i.e. original developments of leading Western companies, the life of the exclusive patent for which has expired. The prices for such drugs are lower than for original drugs. Another group of suppliers are pharmaceutical companies from developed countries: Astra, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), Ebewe, Hoechst, Pfizer, Glaxo Welcom, etc. There are about 40 such companies, they mainly export drugs that have no analogues and have a monopoly high prices.

The Russian pharmaceutical market is unbalanced - generics occupy an unreasonably large place on it. The cheapness of generics is, in fact, the main reason for their popularity. This trend will continue over the next decade. According to experts, the production of generics is the most important and leading strategic direction in the development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry.

On the Russian pharmaceutical market, the greatest demand is for OTC drugs of the following pharmacotherapeutic groups:

• cardiovascular drugs;
• antibiotics;
• antipyretic and anti-inflammatory;
• antihypertensive (hypertensive) drugs.

Description of the geographical segment

The designed enterprise will be located on the territory of the Volgograd region. In its activities it should focus primarily on the domestic market. Up to 80% of the produced products are planned to be sold in the Southern Federal District. The rest of the products will be sold in the Volga Federal District, Voronezh, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions of the Central and Ural Federal Districts.

The total area of ​​the region under consideration is 1914.29 thousand square meters. km. Population 62.753 million people. The Southern Federal District contains 13, and the Volga District – 14 republics, territories and regions.

In total, there are 13 operating pharmaceutical enterprises of Russian and regional significance in the region.

Pharmaceutical production in the region under consideration

The pharmaceutical plants of Russian importance closest to the place of creation of production are JSC Biosintez (Penza), Nizhpharmzavod (Nizhny Novgorod), Kazan Pharmaceutical Factory, Tatkhimfarmpreparaty (Kazan) are located in the Volga Federal District. At the same time, in the Southern Federal District (SFD) there are only two enterprises for the production of medicines, which are focused exclusively on local markets and do not have the capacity to produce modern medications in a range and quantity sufficient for the selected geographical segment.

Peculiarities of FPP consumption in the region

The morbidity structure of the region's population is in many ways similar to the morbidity structure in industrialized countries - an aging population, diseases of a developed society (cardiovascular, oncology, digestive diseases).

Thus, a region’s needs for certain drugs mainly depend on the morbidity structure of its population.

The diagram below shows the morbidity structure of the population of the region under consideration, based on data from the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation.

Imports of medicines into Russian regions are quite large. The Southern Federal District is almost completely dependent on import supplies (there are no significant pharmaceutical productions on its territory), and the Volga Federal District is also seriously dependent on imports, despite the fact that such large pharmaceutical productions as OJSC are located on its territory "Biosintez", OJSC "ICN-Marbiopharm", "Nizhpharmzavod" and a number of other fairly large ones.

Foreign manufacturers are actively showing interest in the pharmaceutical market of the region under study, including Gedeon Richter (Hungary), Hoechst Marion Roussel Ltd., Berlin-Chemie AG/Menarini Group, KRKA D.D., Hinoin, etc.

According to the Department of Pharmacy under the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, the share of imported medicines in the total volume of medicinal products on the regional market is 64%. At the same time, according to experts, the optimal ratio of domestic and imported drugs is 70% to 30%. Thus, we can conclude that there is a significant shortage of cheap domestic drugs in the pharmaceutical market of the region.

Analysis of the pharmaceutical market in the region under consideration

Forming a strategy for an enterprise's behavior in the market is impossible without market analysis, competitive and situational analyses.

A complete analysis of the pharmaceutical market in the region under study is presented in Appendix No. 2 to the business plan. Below are the main results of the analysis.

Market segmentation

Segmentation by type of business

The region's pharmaceutical market can be divided into the following main segments:

• production of substances;
• production of finished medicinal products (FPP).

The market participants are large and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in the region.

Production of substances by pharmaceutical enterprises in the region.

Groups of produced substances

Names of groups of produced substances:

1. Natural antibiotics (substances obtained by microbiological method)
2. Semi-synthetic and synthetic antibiotics
3. Cardiovascular drugs
4. Anti-inflammatory and analgesic substances
5. Other types of substances
6. Insulin production
7. Production of vitamin preparations, including cyanocobalamin (vitamin B12)

Production of FPPs by pharmaceutical enterprises in the region.

(*) The following designations for groups of manufactured drugs are used in the table:

1 - Packaged sterile antibiotic powders.

2 - Tablet drugs.

3 - Sterile and non-sterile solutions.

4 - Ampoule forms.

5 - Ointments, suspensions, powders, capsules.

6 - Endocrine drugs (insulin)

7 – Vitamins (solid forms, injection forms).

Pharmaceutical enterprises in Russia are updating their range of pharmaceutical drugs mainly with generic drugs produced from imported substances. This is due to the lack of Russian substances on the pharmaceutical market.

Segmentation by product type

Segmentation by product type, taking into account the existing demand structure in the selected geographic segment, as well as research of regional pharmaceutical markets conducted by leading experts, made it possible to determine that the greatest consumer preference among over-the-counter drugs is given to tableted drugs.

Analysis of market segments by type of business

Production of substances

The lack of available reliable statistical information on the production volumes of main types of substances by pharmaceutical enterprises in Russia, as well as data on their imports, makes it difficult to conduct a quantitative analysis of this market segment.

The current situation with the production of substances in the regional pharmaceutical market can be assessed by analyzing the distribution of production of various groups of substances at pharmaceutical enterprises in the region.

The results of the analysis of the production of various groups of substances at pharmaceutical enterprises in the region are shown in the diagrams.

The first diagram shows data on the number of groups of substances produced at the main regional pharmaceutical enterprises.

The second diagram shows the distribution of the main regional manufacturers by availability of production of certain groups of substances.

In the table below, groups of substances are arranged and ranked in increasing order of the number of regional manufacturers producing them. A lower value of the attractiveness rank of a group of substances corresponds to a greater attractiveness for locating production of this group at the created Enterprise.

The number of different groups of substances produced at one regional pharmaceutical enterprise ranges from one to six (“Tathimpharmaceuticals”), and on average four different types of substances are produced at one enterprise.

The production of the following groups of substances is least represented on the regional pharmaceutical market:

• Insulin
• Natural antibiotics (substances obtained by microbiological method).
• Semi-synthetic and synthetic antibiotics.
• Cardiovascular drugs.

• Vitamin preparations, including cyanocobalamin (vitamin B12).
• Anti-inflammatory and analgesic substances.

Production of finished medicinal products (FPP)

Let's consider the features of the regional drug production market.

The situation with the production of over-the-counter drugs in the regional pharmaceutical market can be assessed by analyzing the distribution of production of various groups of over-the-counter drugs at pharmaceutical enterprises in the region.

The results of the analysis of the production of various groups of FPPs at the main pharmaceutical enterprises in the region are shown in the diagrams.

The first diagram shows data on the number of different groups of FPPs produced at the main pharmaceutical enterprises in the region.

The second diagram shows the distribution of the main manufacturers in the region according to the availability of production of certain groups of pharmaceutical drugs.

The same diagrams show the average values ​​of the analyzed parameters (blue color).

In the table below, groups of FPPs are located and ranked in increasing order of the number of regional manufacturers producing them. A lower value of the rank of attractiveness of a drug group corresponds to a greater attractiveness of this group for production at the designed enterprise.

The number of different types of FPP produced at one regional pharmaceutical enterprise varies from one (Kazan Pharmaceutical Factory) to seven (AKO Sintez), and on average four different types of FPP are produced at one enterprise.

The production of the following groups of FPPs is least represented on the regional pharmaceutical market:

• Endocrine drugs (insulin).
• Packaged sterile antibiotic powders.
• Ampoule forms.
• Ointments, suspensions, powders, capsules.

Production is mostly represented by:

• Vitamin preparations (solid forms and injection forms).
• Tablet drugs.
• Sterile and non-sterile solutions.

Analysis of market segments by product type

Analysis of the regional market by pharmacotherapeutic groups of drugs

The table shows the results of ranking the segments of the regional pharmaceutical market by FTG of drugs, obtained by analyzing the projected volumes of these segments. The lowest rank value corresponds to the largest forecast volume of the regional market segment.

Analysis of the regional market by type of FPP

The diagram shows the forecast values ​​of the capacity of segments of the regional pharmaceutical market by type of drug product.

Analysis of the regional market by groups of solid pharmaceutical drugs

The diagram shows the results of forecast values ​​of the capacity of segments of the regional pharmaceutical market by groups of solid pharmaceutical drugs.

Product share in total market volume

The sales market for the Company's products has sufficient potential to ensure effective demand for its products. The potential volume of the share of the regional pharmaceutical market that the Enterprise can occupy is about 150 million $US/year, which is 25% of the total market volume of the region.

The production volumes of the Enterprise, firstly, must be justified by an analysis of the current and forecast of the future potential capacity of the regional pharmaceutical market, and, secondly, correspond to the typical values ​​of large Russian pharmaceutical enterprises. In this case, the actions of the Enterprise will most likely not provoke aggressive actions on the part of large global manufacturers to prevent a competitor from entering the market they have already mastered, and the Enterprise’s products will be able to gradually displace imported drugs without intense competition.

The diagrams below provide an assessment of the minimum and maximum values ​​of the potential share of the projected Enterprise in the regional pharmaceutical market for various pharmacotherapeutic groups of drugs.

Competitive Analysis

Competing companies

The competitive analysis given in Appendices No. 1 and No. 2 made it possible to identify the following main competitors of the Enterprise:

• Large and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises in the region that produce similar products.
• Dealer companies that supply small-scale wholesale companies with pharmaceutical drugs in the region directly from manufacturers (Russian and foreign).

Currently, there are 5 large and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises of Russian significance operating in the region under consideration.

Company "Nizhpharm" (Nizhny Novgorod)

Main performance indicators of the Nizhpharm company in 2001:

• Sales volume - 75,547 thousand packages (753.744 million rubles, in foreign currency 25,792 thousand dollars).
• The share of Nizhpharm in the Russian pharmaceutical market is 0.86%.
• The assortment includes more than 90 items (share of brands - 38.9%).
• Brands - top sellers: Betanicomylon, Vitaprost, Levomekol, Osarbon, Chondroxide, Tsefekon, Essliver Forte, Espol, Efkamon.

The pharmaceutical company "Nizhpharm" is one of the ten largest pharmaceutical companies in Russia. Currently, the company is equipped with modern, highly efficient domestic and imported equipment. Production capacity allows us to annually produce up to 150 million packages of finished medicines. The company traditionally leads in the production and sales of ointments and other soft dosage forms.

In 1998, the production of solid forms of medicines - tablets - was mastered according to international GMP rules. The reconstruction of production at the enterprise is currently being completed.

At the end of December 2000 the production of tablets was recognized as meeting the requirements of international GMP rules and Industry Standard OST 42-510-98 “Rules for the organization of production and quality control of medicinal products (GMP).” In April 2001 Nizhpharm received certificates of compliance of the quality system with international standards ISO 9001:1994 and GOST R ISO 9001:1996. The development strategy of Nizhpharm provides for the complete modernization of the enterprise in accordance with international GMP rules, which will make it possible to achieve excellent quality of manufactured drugs, as well as to successfully compete with global manufacturers of pharmaceutical products. Nizhpharm produces finished medicinal products of more than 90 items in 32 pharmacotherapeutic groups.

Since 1995, the company has launched more than 40 new drugs on the market.

JSC "Biosintez"

Geographically, the closest to the site of the proposed construction is JSC Biosintez (Penza). At the end of 2001, this enterprise entered the top five largest manufacturers of pharmaceutical products in Russia.

Production activities at the enterprise began more than 40 years ago, in 1959. The main products of the enterprise then were substances obtained by the microbiological method - the antibiotic biomycin and vitamin B12. Subsequently, the list of manufactured products was replenished with the antibiotic substances oleandomycin, tetracycline, nystatin, heliomycin, fusidine, levorin, as well as other drugs.

Subsequently, the plant began production of finished medicines: in 1961, the production of tablets was mastered, in 1971 - infusion solutions and packaged injection powders. In 1986, the production of insulin began, in 1989 - heparin.

Currently, the company produces pharmaceutical drugs and substances. The product range includes more than 120 types of medicines from nine pharmacotherapeutic groups. 30% of drugs are included in the list of vital drugs. The volume of marketable products for the first half of 2001 amounted to 377 million rubles, sales revenue - 350 million rubles, and profit from sales - 66 million rubles. The company employs more than four thousand people.

The equipment the company has includes tablet presses "Kilian" and "Fette", installations for coating tablets with a film of aqueous solutions and organic solvents. Prepacking, packing and stacking of tablets is carried out by the automatic Zanazi line. The total capacity of the tablet production workshop is more than 100 million packages No. 15 per year.

In addition to drugs in the form of tablets, JSC Biosintez produces injectable drugs in the form of powders and solutions. The powder production complex includes equipment from the companies "Zanazi", "Huber", etc. The facilities for the production of infusion solutions include all types of equipment for the preparation of solutions, washing, sterilization, filling and packaging of bottles in compliance with sterile production conditions, which makes it possible to produce about 18 million bottles of blood substitutes, blood preservatives, saline and detoxification solutions per year. In 1999, the production of ampoules was mastered. Three syringe filling lines for ampoules allow us to produce about 100 million ampoules with a capacity of 2 ml, 5 ml and 10 ml annually. The production of soft dosage forms includes areas for the production of ointments and suppositories.

Production capacities allow the production of about 700 conventional tons of substances using the method of microbiological synthesis. For the first half of 2001, the volume of production of antibiotic substances amounted to 100 conventional tons, i.e. capacities are loaded at approximately 28%, which is a fairly high figure for Russian manufacturers of substances.

Currently, the main substance is benzylpenicillin sodium salt. JSC "Biosintez" is the only Russian manufacturer of antifungal antibiotic substances nystatin, levorin, griseovulifin. In addition to antibiotics, the range of substances includes the cardiovascular drug Riboxin. The company also has a complex for the production of endocrine drugs, which produces various enzymes for medical purposes: insulin, heparin, pancreatin, lidase, thyroidin, as well as the immunomodulatory agent sodium nucleinate.

Further development of the enterprise is associated with technical re-equipment and increasing the efficiency of existing production. A major role in this is given to the scientific center of JSC Biosintez. It includes the microbiological, chemical, chemical technology and analytical sectors, as well as the finished dosage forms sector.

Currently, JSC Biosintez sets itself the task of developing and producing affordable import-substituting drugs, as well as creating its own original medicines. To this end, the company is actively developing cooperation with the country's leading scientific centers - the State Scientific Center, the All-Russian Scientific Center for BAV, and the Hematological Center of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.

JSC "Ofitsina"

Open joint-stock company "Ofitsina" is located in the city of Millerovo, Rostov region. The company is the largest distributor of medicines in the South of Russia and specializes in providing a wide range of services and information in the field of distribution of pharmaceutical products to pharmacies and medical institutions. The company has been operating in the Russian pharmaceutical market since 1989.

The structure of OJSC "Ofitsina" includes a central wholesale pharmaceutical warehouse, a customs warehouse, branches and representative offices in other cities and regions (Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Pyatigorsk, Volgograd), nine pharmacies, with five pharmacy points and two pharmacy kiosks open. , an optical store, as well as a repair and construction site, a gas station, an association of food and industrial stores.

Wholesale trade of medicines and medical products accounts for 85% of the company's turnover. The company's price list includes more than 2,000 names of drugs from almost all pharmacological groups. The offered range is constantly expanded and updated.

For many years, OJSC "Ofitsina" has been in direct cooperation with more than one hundred leading domestic and 60 foreign manufacturers of medicines and medical products. Stable relationships have been established with all suppliers. Large volumes of purchases contribute to obtaining significant discounts, which in turn allows the company to set low prices and apply minimal trade margins on the goods offered. For clients of OJSC "Ofitsina" this makes it possible to have competitive prices for purchased goods.

The organization of sales at OJSC "Ofitsina" is built on a regional principle, i.e. All existing and potential clients of the company - pharmacies - are divided into geographical regions, with each of which specific sales department or branch managers work.

OJSC "Ofitsina" provides information interaction with its clients, as well as their direct service for the implementation of orders, both from the central office in Millerovo and through the company's branches and representative offices. Having our own vehicle fleet, which is constantly updated and expanded, allows customers who place an order at Oficina OJSC to have free delivery of goods exactly on time. Regular schedules for the delivery of goods to various regions have been worked out.

Specialists of OJSC "Ofitsina" regularly monitor the needs of clients. Thus, the company's management has a clear understanding of customer expectations. To satisfy customer needs as fully as possible, Oficina OJSC purchases goods directly from manufacturers and, mainly, on a full prepayment basis in order to ensure lower prices.

The main strategic goal of Oficina OJSC remains to satisfy the demand in the market of pharmaceutical goods and services in the South of Russia as fully as possible.

Competitive Forces Analysis

Competitive forces analysis is carried out to determine the opportunities and threats that the Enterprise may face in the industry.

The table shows the generalized results of competitive analysis according to M. Porter (model of the influence of five forces influencing the possibility of increasing prices and profits):

SWOT analysis

SWOT analysis is the most important component of situational analysis, and should answer the following questions:

What are the Company's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats;

How strong is the competitive position of the Enterprise.

Qualitatively, based on expert assessments, we determine a list of the Company’s strengths and weaknesses, their relationship with opportunities and threats, and draw up a SWOT analysis matrix.

Key Success Factors

The results of calculating a weighted assessment of the strategic strength of the Enterprise relative to its competitors are shown in the table.

Accepted designations: P – Enterprise; 1 - JSC "Biosintez"; 2 - OJSC "Ofitsina".

The diagram below shows the highlighted key success factors of the Enterprise (KSF) and the expert assessments of the weights of each KSF.

conclusions

1. The large capacity of the pharmaceuticals market makes business in this sector of the economy attractive and stable.

2. Plans of the state and some companies to launch the production of medicines leave 3 to 5 years for relatively easy entry into the market.

3. In the selected geographic segment, there is an acute shortage of inexpensive and high-quality domestic drugs. The basic needs for pharmaceutical drugs are met through imports, which creates favorable preconditions for import substitution.

4. The sales market for the Company's products has sufficient potential to ensure effective demand for its products. The potential share of the regional pharmaceutical market that the Enterprise can occupy is 150 million $US/year.

5. The analysis of the regional pharmaceutical market allows us to identify the following range of products, the production of which is advisable to organize at the newly created Enterprise:

Substances:

• insulin;
• natural antibiotics;
• semisynthetic and synthetic antibiotics;
• cardiovascular drugs; agents acting on the central nervous system;

Medicines by pharmacotherapeutic groups:

• means for the treatment of diseases of the gastrointestinal tract;
• analgesic, antipyretic, antirheumatic drugs;
• antibiotics;
• drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases;

Including for certain types of FPP:

• tablet preparations (uncoated, coated, capsules);
• ampoule forms;
• ointments, suspensions, powders;
• sterile antibiotic powders, packaged;
• endocrine drugs (insulin).

6. Based on the above data and calculations carried out in Appendix No. 2, we can conclude that the Enterprise potentially has greater competitive power compared to its closest competitors. The competitive advantage of the Enterprise is achieved through the following key factors:

• use of flexible technological production schemes;
• compliance of the quality of manufactured pharmaceutical drugs and substances with GMP and ISO 9000 standards;
• creation of medium-scale production of new types of highly effective substances in accordance with GMP requirements;
• ability to quickly respond to changing market conditions;
• attractive pricing policy;
• use of the latest technological equipment;
• introduction of new technologies and our own developments.

Description of the Enterprise

Corporate requirements for organizing pharmaceutical production

Currently, for all pharmaceutical enterprises in Russia, the main document regulating the production of medicines is the GMP rules ("Good manufacturing practice"). Not all enterprises in the country yet meet the requirements of these rules, but most pharmaceutical enterprises are already spending significant funds on reconstruction and technical re-equipment.

Land plot

The initiators of the project reached an agreement with the administration of Volgograd and the Volgograd region to provide a land plot of 10 hectares for the construction of a pharmaceutical plant. The site is located north of the village. MR-1 in the village of Gorkovsky, Volgograd region. The distance from the construction site to the residential area is more than 2 km, which will make it possible, in accordance with SNiP standards, to place the most toxic and dangerous industries in the designated area. The size of the allocated area allows for future expansion of production.

Basic parameters of the land plot

Main characteristics of the created production

The designed enterprise is intended both for the production of pharmaceutical drugs from purchased raw materials and for the production of substances in accordance with international standards ISO9001 and GMP requirements, as well as for the introduction and implementation of new technologies and the development of new brands.

The total construction area is more than 50 thousand square meters. m., including: 25% - production area, 60% - technical area and warehouse space and 15% - non-production area.

Basic (sterile) production

Auxiliary production

According to the production program, the capacity of the Enterprise at the first stage will be 2.2 billion units of finished products per year. Subsequently, the capacity of the Enterprise will be increased to 3 billion units of finished products per year when organizing work in three shifts.

The production program of the Enterprise is completely focused on import substitution, production of the most modern vital drugs in solid, soft and injectable forms for the treatment of various diseases.

The substance production site at the Enterprise will be built on a modular basis. The modular principle allows the equipment to be reconfigured to produce the required type of substance within a few hours. This technological scheme is new not only for Russia, but also for the West.

Design capacity of the Enterprise

Composition of main equipment

The main manufacturers of equipment for the pharmaceutical industry are traditionally Germany (BOSH, Kilian, Fette), Switzerland (Huber, Zanazi), Italy.

The supply of special equipment is carried out by Russian representative offices of large foreign pharmaceutical companies (Hemofarm, KRKA, Pliva), as well as a number of Russian companies.

The conditions and terms of delivery of equipment must be stipulated in each specific case when concluding supply contracts. It is possible to purchase equipment on lease.

Suppliers of Equipment will be companies determined by the Enterprise on the basis of a tender.

A detailed list and completeness of the necessary equipment must be prepared by the chief technologist of the Enterprise together with the supplier company. Below is only a possible list of necessary equipment indicating the maximum permissible price level for it.

List of main equipment

List of additional equipment

conclusions

The designed Enterprise should receive a number of significant advantages compared to similar Enterprises in the region:

• full compliance with the rules;
• application of the latest technologies in construction;
• use of flexible technologies in production;
• high power;
• using our own cheaper raw materials;
• complete computerization of the Enterprise;
• possibility of implementing your own developments.

The enterprise in terms of its capacity should become the largest in the Southern Federal District and enter the top five largest pharmaceutical enterprises in Russia. In terms of the level of its equipment and the use of modern technologies, the Enterprise can take a place among the most modern pharmaceutical factories in Russia and Eastern Europe.

Production and sales program

Formation of assortment

The use of flexible technological production schemes and the use of high-tech equipment will allow the Company to quickly respond to changes in market conditions. The marketing analysis of the regional pharmaceutical market, given in Appendix No. 2, made it possible to identify the following range of FPPs and substances by pharmacotherapeutic groups and types of FPPs.

To carry out economic calculations based on the above data, the project initiators formed a preliminary assortment of the Enterprise’s products.

Preliminary product range

Product manufacturing

Volume of product output when the Enterprise reaches planned capacity

The table shows production volumes at the following capacity utilization factors: 2005 - 0.6; 2006 -0.7; 2007 -0.8.

Price structure. Pricing policy of the Enterprise

Prices for pharmaceutical drugs and substances of the Enterprise are set on average 15-20% lower than for similar imported drugs.

Product price

The share of direct costs for drugs produced from purchased substances is calculated at an average of up to 50% of the selling price. Using our own substances reduces direct costs by 20%. The share of direct costs in the production of substances is, on average, 40% of the cost of production.

Direct costs per unit. products

Sales volumes. Organization of product sales

The production and commercial program of the Enterprise is designed for a depth of four years. Taking into account the financial calculations carried out and data obtained as a result of marketing analysis (Appendix No. 2), the Enterprise adopted the following sales volume plan:

For the duration of the project, the Company has developed the following strategy for promoting its products to the pharmaceutical market of Russia and the region:

Advertising

Advertising is an integral part of the successful promotion of an enterprise's products to the market. The purpose of advertising for the advertiser is to convey information to consumers and achieve their favor to expand demand for the product. According to experts, for a successful advertising campaign, any enterprise needs to go through the following path:

Testing of advertising products is considered the most effective both at the “Launch” stage of the campaign and after its completion. It is necessary to conduct preliminary testing first of the concept of the planned advertising campaign, and then of its individual elements (videos, printed products). In this case, it also makes sense to test the progress of the campaign directly at the stage of its implementation, which allows for prompt correction without interrupting the progress of the campaign.

It should be noted the importance of preliminary testing of the advertising campaign and the created advertising material. At this stage, psychological factors such as frequency of exposure and the actual environment surrounding the advertisement are not taken into account. However, during the pretest, you can first study the perception of the concept of an advertising campaign, the psychological impact of the advertising message, and also make the necessary changes and additions in accordance with the results of the study.

This business plan provides only preliminary estimates and recommendations for advertising the project. More accurate data should be obtained after developing the concept of the entire advertising campaign. The approximate stages of the advertising campaign are shown in the table:

According to expert estimates, the costs of developing and conducting an advertising campaign for the Enterprise can amount to about 3% of product sales.

Methods of winning and retaining customers

The costs of developing and implementing measures to stimulate sales and retain customers are about 2% of product sales.

The ability to win and retain customers is becoming an increasingly popular competitive weapon among the smartest companies. Programs for rewarding regular customers are concretely embodied in the products produced and the prices set for them. This century will see the competition between companies trying to win over each other's most attractive customers and retain them become even more intense.

Customer retention is a dynamic concept, depending on investments made over time and steps implemented over time. To understand and solve the problem of customer retention, it is necessary to predict possible developments from the very beginning.

According to international experts (Karl Shapiro - Professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, www.inforules.com), the popularity of loyalty reward programs is increasing every year. Preference will be given to “deserved” customers, and the cost of switching to another supplier will increase.

Reward programs are much easier to implement when companies have information about the consumer behavior of their customers. Already, many trading companies are collecting information about the preferences of their customers. These methods involve tracking purchases made over a certain time by specific customers, and a separate column must be created for each customer. With the development of information technology, the processing of such information is becoming cheaper, and more and more companies (including quite small ones) believe that the costs of analyzing consumer behavior are justified.

Today we can already say that sophisticated information systems and targeted advertising events are becoming weapons in competition. This weapon is replacing traditional techniques: giving products an impressive appearance and pricing policy.

Brief description of methods aimed at retaining customers by the Enterprise

Organizational plan

Stages and timing of the project

According to the presented schedule, the final validation of the plant can begin in the 3rd quarter of 2005.

Management team

Top managers of the Company include:

Production personnel

In accordance with international standards, the staffing level of a pharmaceutical enterprise of this level should be about 3 thousand people, and, as a rule, one fifth of the employees should have a diploma of higher specialized (chemical-pharmaceutical) education. Employees must constantly improve their skills. The training project for the Enterprise's employees must be drawn up in accordance with international quality standards of the ISO9000 series. To do this, it is necessary to provide special premises where training of new employees, trainees, quality controllers and advanced training of the Enterprise’s managers will take place.

Project implementation partners

The main partners of the Enterprise for the implementation of the project are:

Organizational building tasks

Among the priority tasks of organizational development, the management of the Enterprise identifies the following:

• High-quality preparation of pre-project documents.
• Establishing reliable professional relationships with the management of the Hemofarm company, financial partners, suppliers of special and industrial equipment.
• Formation of a core of key managers of the Enterprise.
• Inviting foreign managers for the period of debugging and launching production.

Financial plan

Investment project financing

Project participants

The date taken as the conditional start date of the project is 06/01/2002.

The period for calculating the effectiveness of investments is 90 months from the beginning of the project.

Share capital structure

Shareholder 2 makes the first contribution to the authorized capital in the 1st month of the project. The remaining amounts are contributed according to the scheme, covering the cash deficit during the entire construction of the Enterprise.

State support in the form of a loan is provided to the Enterprise starting from the 24th month of the project at the construction completion stage.

State support in the form of a loan

Investment costs, thousand $US

Income of project participants

Taxation

From January 1, 2002, a VAT rate of 10% was established for the pharmaceutical industry (for all drugs and medicinal substances without exception). As a result of the introduction of a 10% VAT, prices for medicines increased by 14 - 16%. However, it should be borne in mind that the 10% VAT on medicines is most likely a temporary phenomenon, and by 2003 the tax may be increased to 15%.

A serious factor in curbing the rise in prices for medicines is the reduction in the number of intermediaries in the chain from manufacturer to consumer. In the future, we can expect that the increase in ruble prices for medicines will be approximately equal to the VAT rate +% of monthly inflation in the country.

Tax rates used

Project performance indicators

The period for calculating performance indicators is 90 months.

Project risk assessment

Main project risks

Analysis of project risks can be divided into qualitative (description of all expected project risks, as well as assessment of their consequences and mitigation measures) and quantitative (direct calculations of changes in project efficiency in connection with the implementation of certain risks). A detailed description of the methodology and the results of risk assessment are given in Appendix No. 4 to the business plan.

Qualitative risk analysis

The proposed scenario for the implementation of an investment project covers several fairly clearly defined stages, so it is advisable to carry out a qualitative risk assessment by project stages.

One of the methods for qualitative analysis of risks affecting the feasibility of a project is the method of stage-by-stage risk assessment proposed by Lipsits I.V. and Kossov V.V.

In this methodology, risk is understood as the danger that the goals set in the project may not be partially or completely achieved.

The investment project under consideration includes the following periods and stages:

1. Preparatory period.

1.1. Research and development.
1.2 Allocation, purchase or lease of land.

2. Construction and installation of equipment.
2.1 Construction, rental or acquisition of buildings and structures.
2.2 Purchase and installation of technological equipment.

3. Licensing and certification of pharmaceutical production.

4. Production and sales (product sales).

Stage-by-stage risk assessment is based on the fact that risks are determined for each period or stage of the project separately, and then the total risk is found for the entire project.

The investment project under study is individually developed, which, in essence, leaves the only opportunity for assessing risk values ​​- expert assessment. Experts from the project developers acted as experts, and the opinions of specialists working in the pharmaceutical and construction industries were also taken into account.

Appendix No. 6 provides a description of the actions taken by the Project Initiators to implement it, as well as assessments of simple risks with and without taking into account these actions. The risk assessment of the project as a whole was also carried out for two options: with and without taking into account the actions already taken by the Project Initiators aimed at reducing the consequences and likelihood of risks occurring. It was found that the total risk of the project was:

• 28.4% - excluding the actions of the Project Initiators;
• 20.6% - taking into account the actions of the Project Initiators.

The tables below show the results of project risk assessment by periods (stages) of implementation and by groups of simple risks.

Risk assessment by project implementation period<_o3a_p>

Project risk assessment by groups

Quantitative risk analysis. Sensitivity Analysis

The task of quantitative analysis is to numerically measure the impact of the implementation of certain risk factors on the effectiveness of the project.

The most common quantitative method of risk analysis is sensitivity analysis of project performance indicators.

The wider the range of parameters in which efficiency indicators remain within acceptable values, the higher the “margin of safety” of the project, the better it is protected from fluctuations in various factors that influence the results of the project. The study of the sensitivity of the project to possible changes in parameters was carried out using the computer software system Project Expert 7.01 from Pro-Invest IT.

Cash flow parameters are used as integral indicators characterizing the financial result of the project when assessing sensitivity, namely:

• profitability index (PI);
• internal rate of return (IRR);
• net present value of income (NPV).

The table below presents the factors varied during the sensitivity analysis and the range of their changes, as well as the calculated values ​​of the integral indicators.

Sensitivity Analysis

An analysis of the sensitivity of integral performance indicators to changes in various factors characterizing the project shows that project indicators depend to the greatest extent on:

• product sales prices;
• sales volumes;
• direct costs;
• volume of attracted investments.

Of the factors considered, the project’s performance indicators are least affected by:

• changes in salary costs;
• the interest rate on the loan attracted.

The most critical integral indicator of project efficiency is the internal rate of return IRR, which decreases to 14% when the selling price of products decreases by 20%. In general, the sensitivity analysis indicates that the project is sufficiently resistant to unfavorable changes in the factors considered.

Risk Reduction Methods

The table below shows the main risks of the investment project and recommended measures to reduce them.

conclusions

1. Qualitative risk analysis made it possible to identify the main risks of the project and assess both the probabilities of their implementation and the probability of project failure if each simple risk is realized. Estimates of project risk reduction as a result of work performed by the Initiators during the pre-investment period of the project were obtained. The risk assessment for the project as a whole is 28.4%, and taking into account the work performed by the Project Initiators - 20.6%.

2. The greatest threat to the project comes from technological, marketing, financial, economic and socio-political risk groups. The most risky ones are the preparatory period and the period of production and sales (product sales).

3. The most dangerous for the successful implementation of the project are the following simple risks:

• negative changes in the political and economic situation in the country;
• high competition among manufacturers of similar products.
• loss of control over the Enterprise;
• inability to provide the Enterprise with raw materials of the required quality at reasonable prices;
• lack of demand for the Company's products;
• opposition from government officials;
• lack of companies ready to carry out construction work and having the required level of qualifications and experience in the construction of modern pharmaceutical enterprises;
• expensive and complicated procedure for licensing and certification of production;
• high cost of delivery of raw materials;
• the prospect of a market collapse in the short or medium term, a reduction in effective demand;
• intervention of the state or legal institutions in the process of production and distribution of products.

4. Sensitivity analysis showed that project performance indicators (PI, IRR, NPV) depend to the greatest extent on:

• product sales prices;
• sales volumes;
• direct costs;
• volumes of attracted investments.

In general, the results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the project is sufficiently resistant to unfavorable changes in the factors considered.

List of sources used

Order of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation dated December 3, 1999 No. 432/512 “On the implementation of the Industry Standard OST 42-510-98 “Rules for the organization of production and quality control of medicines (GMP).” Order of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation dated November 1, 2001 No. 388 "On state standards for the quality of medicines." State Register of prices for medicines (10th edition, as of November 5, 2001). Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 9, 2001 No. 782 "On state regulation prices for medicines." Order of the State Customs Committee of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation dated August 13, 2001 No. 792/321 "On approval of the Regulations on the procedure for customs clearance of medical goods, raw materials and components for their production using a special procedure for declaring goods." Orlov A. I. Strategic management, 1998. http://www.akdi.ru/econom/program/ V. Boykova, F. Fili, I. Sheiman, S. Shishkina “Population participation in healthcare financing.” http://rcc .ru/Rus/Pharmaceuticals “VAT on medicines increases the cost of medicines.” http://ad.ir.ru Academy “Civil Society. Analytics." http://verofarm.ru "Veropharm" switches to the production of generics." http://www.remedium.ru/news “The KRKA company has opened one of the most modern pharmaceutical plants in the world.” http://www.dsm.ru/st1.htm “General issues of information support for pharmaceutical business.” http://www.remedium.ru/news “Construction of the pharmaceutical plant LLC KRKA RUS is underway in the city of Istra, Moscow region.” http://www.pharmvestnik.ru/ISSUES/0162 “Pharmaceutical industry of France.” http://www.remedium.ru “The French medicinal offensive continues.” http://www.pharmateca.ru/№299/P14.htm “ISO 9000 series standards - prospects for use in pharmaceutical production.” http://www.remedium.ru “Generics. World trends and Russian reality.” http://www.remedium.ru “Quality of substances and GMP Rules - imaginary incompatibility.” http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/manuf/china.asp “China is the birthplace of pharmaceutical substances.” http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/regrev/0012.asp “The influence of state regulation on the development of regional models of the pharmaceutical market.” http://www.remedium.ru “Reviews of medicinal markets.” http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/manuf/mbmfr99.asp “Production of drugs. Microbiological industry of Russia". http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/manuf/rem00115.asp “Production of drugs. Ensuring “pharmaceutical” quality.” http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/regrev/ph_deutch.asp “German pharmaceutical companies on the Russian market.” Magazine "Remedium" No. 1-12, 2001. http: //www.remedium.ru. "Forecast for the production of pharmacological drugs in Russia in 2002." Profile" 01.21.02 http://www.marketsurveys.ru/s01005066.html. On the Russian pharmaceutical market. Izvestia 01.26.02 http://www.marketsurveys.ru/s01005098 .html "Russian pharmaceutical market" http://www.marketsurveys.ru/s0100669.html Nizhpharm OJSC http://www.nizhfarm.ru Biosynthesis OJSC http://www.remedium.ru/ business/pharm/analysis/dossier/biosintez/index.asp JSC "Irbit Chemical and Pharmaceutical Plant" http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/dossier/irbithfz/index.asp JSC "Vostok" http "http://www.vostok-kirov.ru/. The largest foreign companies - suppliers. The largest companies importing medicines into Russia. Medicines are the leaders in imports. http://www.pharmateca.ru/new/RFP12000.htm." The fight against counterfeit medicines in Russia" http://www.pharmateca.ru/2001/№2001.11/falsification.htm. "Import of medicines into the regions" http://www.pharmateca. Analytical materials. http://www .remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/index.asp "The influence of state regulation on the development of regional models of the pharmaceutical market." http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/regrev/0012.asp Thematic reviews. http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/reviews/index.asp Regional reviews. http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/index.asp Analytical materials http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/index.asp The present and future of Russian substances. http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/manuf/now.asp Healthy business. http://www.cfin.ru/press/boss/2001-09/06.shtml Domestic narcotic drugs. http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/drugrev/0036.asp Methods for assessing the capacity of regional pharmaceutical markets. http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/regrev/reg_appreciate.asp "Production of high-tech medicinal substances." http://www.marketsurveys.ru/s01004689.html. "The use of marketing elements in the practice of a modern pharmacy." http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/market/ra0016.asp. "Strategy for assortment formation." http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/retail/ra0014.asp "Analysis of price changes due to the introduction of VAT on pharmaceutical drugs." http://www.remedium.ru/business/pharm/analysis/retail/vat.asp.

Applications

Appendix No. 1 “Preliminary marketing analysis”.

Appendix No. 2 “Strategic goals and main objectives of the Enterprise.”

Appendix No. 3 “Analysis and forecast of the foreign economic environment.”

Appendix No. 4 “Analysis of project risks and methods for reducing them.”

Appendix No. 5 “Detailed financial plan”.

The pharmaceutical sector includes several industries, but there are universal recommendations that will help you buy a pharmaceutical business or sell it. When conducting a specific transaction, it is recommended to contact consultants.

Purchase of a ready-made company

To buy a profitable pharmaceutical business, it is important to focus on the following parameters:

• company income;
• proposed assets;
• accounts receivable;
• staff;
• documentation.

It is advisable that as many assets as possible be transferred into ownership. This will serve as a kind of insurance if the drug business does not work out in the future. Then it will be possible to sell the premises, equipment, remaining drugs, trademarks, website, transport.

The company’s lack of debt is an obvious advantage, and the presence of experienced specialists and managers on the team will allow, for example, to buy a pharmaceutical company in Moscow while living in another city. Documentation must be carefully checked - this will reduce legal risks to a minimum.

Sale of pharmaceutical business

You should carefully prepare for the sale. To do this, it is necessary to put all documents in order, if possible, renew contracts and licenses, and formalize special relationships with suppliers and partners.

We should not forget that raider groups still exist in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other regions of Russia, so it is important to take measures to protect information that can serve as a lever for dishonest transactions.

The price of a pharmaceutical business depends on many parameters. First of all, it is recommended to prove to the buyer that the business will generate income in the future. To do this, you can build a financial model, offer an interesting business plan and provide revenue data for recent years.

Please note that the material presented below contains only a typical business plan. The figures given here can only be regarded as indicative, since the market and prices are constantly changing. However, the business plan provided provides a clear understanding of the steps that will need to be taken to successfully launch the described business, and can serve as a good template for preparing your own business plan.

Since this business plan is quite lengthy, we invite you to download the text for further reference.

Business plan for pharmaceutical production

download business plan

*The article is over 8 years old. May contain outdated data

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To open a toothpick production enterprise, you will first need a room in which to place the equipment. The working area should be about 50 square meters.

If you decide to open your own car service, then regardless of whether you are going to work as a legal entity or an individual, you cannot do without obtaining a license

If you open a store exclusively for men's clothing, you need to understand the psychology of your consumer, and men for the most part are not very interested in the latest fashion trends, and buy...

From one hectare you can harvest up to 50 tons of crop. In the warm season, tomatoes can be sold for 30 rubles per kilogram, and in the winter - for 200 rubles. Even if we take into account only the “summer” price, then...

To open an average production of herbal medicinal preparations with a volume of 5-7 thousand packages per day will require four million rubles. The payback period in this case will be from 18 months.

Coffee is one of the most popular drinks in the world. That's why opening a coffee shop is a profitable business idea. And for a beginner, this is a great chance to gain experience in the restaurant business.

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